Tensions between the US and Iran escalated significantly in mid-February, marked by an intensifying US military buildup in the Middle East and warnings from Russia against further American strikes on Iran, with both nations preparing for potential conflict. Amidst this military posturing, the US and Iran held a third round of indirect nuclear talks in Geneva on February 26, while the US ordered the evacuation of non-emergency personnel and families from Israel on February 27 due to escalating tensions. By March 5, US-Israeli strikes continued across Iran, with Iran reportedly striking Azerbaijan and a US oil tanker. The US reported on March 6 that Iranian missile attacks were down 90% after strikes from B-2 bombers.

By March 9, global stock markets plunged and oil prices surged to nearly $120 a barrel due to the escalating US-Iran conflict. Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed as Iran's new Supreme Leader, drawing reactions from Houthi rebels and US President Trump. President Trump stated the Iran war could end "very soon" after a call with Russian President Putin, leading to a drop in oil prices. On March 10, Iran threatened to continue its oil blockade and warned Trump of 'elimination,' while Trump threatened harsher strikes. The US Secretary of War predicted March 10 would be the "most intense day" of US strikes, signaling imminent military escalation, and Putin warned that the Strait of Hormuz crisis could choke global oil supply within a month. As of March 11, Israel launched a new attack against Iran, and Iran began mining the Strait of Hormuz, damaging a container ship, prompting Donald Trump to threaten an unprecedented military response. On March 12, an Iranian drone strike sparked a fire at Bahrain airport fuel tanks, further escalating the regional conflict, and oil prices surged past $100 a barrel amid a widening Middle East shipping crisis and tanker attacks. Iran's Supreme Leader vowed to avenge martyrs and initially threatened to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, though later allowed some ships.

As of March 13, the US temporarily eased sanctions on Russian oil to calm global markets amid the Iran conflict and Hormuz closure, while deploying an additional 2,500 Marines and three warships to the Middle East. NATO also intercepted a third Iranian missile over Turkey, prompting Ankara to seek an explanation. On March 14, the US bombs Iran's Kharg Island, prompting Iranian threats of retaliation, while the US Embassy in Baghdad is hit by rocket and drone attacks, and the UAE intercepts multiple missile and drone attacks from Iran. As of March 15, President Trump states conditions for ending military operations against Iran are "not yet fully in place."