President Trump is reportedly considering resuming limited military attacks on Iran while not ruling out diplomacy, with discussions also focusing on a potential naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to cut off Iranian revenue. The UK has stated it will not join Trump's proposed blockade of Iran's ports.
Glencore has announced the acquisition of a 45% stake in an aluminium recycling facility located in South Carolina, expanding its presence in the recycling sector.
Morgan Stanley has upgraded Alcoa's stock rating, citing higher aluminum prices and improved operating leverage as key factors influencing the positive outlook for the company.
Leading aluminum manufacturers have increased surcharges in the US market, citing disruptions to supply chains caused by ongoing geopolitical conflicts.
The Montenegrin government is reportedly preparing 2.5 million euros in compensation for approximately 1,400 former employees of the Aluminum Plant Podgorica (KAP) who are now in bankruptcy proceedings.
Emirates Global Aluminium has stated that the recovery of aluminum production could take up to a year, indicating potential long-term impacts on the industry.
According to a Berenberg report, METLEN is among the top metal industries, with the increase in aluminum prices positively impacting its position as a mining leader.
Former President Trump has imposed 100% tariffs on prescription drugs from companies that have not agreed to lower prices, a move aimed at incentivizing domestic production and reducing drug costs in the United States.
Former President Trump has announced a reduction in US duty rates on derivative products of steel, aluminum, and copper, impacting trade policies for these materials.
President Trump has announced an overhaul of metal tariffs, signaling a shift in his administration's trade policy regarding steel and aluminum imports.
The Middle East conflict continues to deepen the global energy crisis, driving oil prices above $109 and causing aluminum prices to explode to record levels, while also prompting a discussion on the US's true energy independence from the region, despite claims by former President Trump. The ongoing conflict has also led to cruise lines canceling and rerouting voyages, with some companies repatriating stranded guests, and Malaysia's Prime Minister has convened a special meeting to ensure supply stability.
Goldman Sachs indicates that the war in the region is casting a shadow over the aluminum industry's prospects in the Persian Gulf. The conflict creates uncertainty and challenges for production and investment.
The ongoing war in Iran is disrupting global supplies, causing aluminum prices to be poised for their biggest monthly gain in eight years, and is projected to increase inflation by up to 6 percent, risking a recession.
Emirates Global Aluminium has reported 'significant damage' from recent Iranian strikes, contributing to a projected 10% monthly surge in aluminum prices as the Iran War impacts supplies.
An article discusses the effectiveness of wrapping car keys in aluminum foil to prevent theft, while also suggesting more robust alternative methods for vehicle security.
A new form of aluminum has been developed, signaling the potential beginning of a shift towards replacing traditional precious metals in various applications.
A rescue worker was injured on Reykjanesbraut near the Straumsvík aluminum plant in Iceland when a driver accelerated and struck his outstretched hand.
Major car manufacturers worldwide are reportedly engaging in 'panic buying' of aluminum, fearing that supplies could be exhausted within months if the Middle East conflict persists and continues to disrupt global trade flows.
Records suggest that Aughinish Alumina, a leading Irish metals refinery, is part of an international aluminum supply chain that appears to feed Russian arms producers, with shipments to Russian smelters sharply increasing since the invasion of Ukraine.
Aluminum futures have experienced a significant plunge, causing Alcoa stock to fall below its 50-day moving average and prompting discussions on whether investors should buy the dip.
BusinessAPNYTwsj+14FTNHK WorldEL PAISindex-hrTimes of IndiadanasiefimeridaKorea Herald+6 more25d ago17 sources
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is impacting global supply chains beyond oil and gas, affecting critical materials like fertilizers, aluminum, and helium that pass through the Strait of Hormuz. This maritime crisis is testing the resilience of ports like Dakar and leading Asian nations to pivot to coal as LNG supplies are choked, while Mwani Qatar activates exceptional port tariff facilities to support supply chains.
Alcoa is seeing increased interest from buyers seeking alternative aluminum supplies as Persian Gulf countries reduce their output, impacting global market dynamics.
The London Metal Exchange (LME) announced a partial disruption in electronic trading for copper, aluminum, zinc, and tin on Monday, attributing the issue to a 'technical fault'.
The Mozal aluminum smelter in Mozambique has been placed into a 'care and maintenance' status, indicating a significant operational change, with management expressing disappointment.
Aluminum stocks are under scrutiny as prices climb following a significant reduction in output by a major smelter, impacting the global commodity market.
China-Based Copper Scam Leaves Cooling Firm With Fake Metal
Thermal Grizzly CEO Roman “Der8auer” Hartung says his company recently fell victim to large-scale materials fraud while trying to source copper and aluminum for its cooling products, according to PC Gamer.
The company needs several tons of metal to machine components such as GPU water blocks. With copper prices rising and European supplies expensive, Hartung turned to suppliers in China’s metal market. After reviewing ...
Alcoa Corporation (AA) is strategically focusing on securing deals within the rapidly expanding data center industry, signaling a new market direction for the aluminum producer.
MANILA, Philippines — The Philippine National Police – Highway Patrol Group (PNP -HPG) ordered its patrol officers to save on fuel amid looming price hikes triggered by escalating tensions in the…
Norsk Hydro, a Norwegian aluminum company, plans to close its extrusion plant in Lucé, Eure-et-Loir, France, putting 80 jobs at risk. The site, acquired in 1986 from Alcan, specializes in pushing heated aluminum through molds to create profiles.
Acidic, salty, marinated, and starchy foods should not be stored in aluminum foil due to potential chemical reactions and the risk of bacterial growth.
A warehouse containing wood and aluminum materials in Gështenjas, Pogradec, Albania, has caught fire, with flames reportedly starting after tires burned outside the facility.
Progressive Slovakia is filing a criminal complaint regarding subsidies involving Minister Migaľ, while Prime Minister Fico is set to negotiate with Slovalco and sign a memorandum to support aluminum production.
A review highlights an 11-piece lightweight aluminum cookware set with ergonomic handles and PFOA-free coating, available at a 42% discount, making it cheaper than a dinner for two.
EU officials anticipate that the United States will soon reconsider its high tariffs on steel and aluminum, which have long hindered trade and caused complications for European exporters.
An environmental inspection in Botun, Montenegro, reported no official complaints of hazardous waste, despite residents announcing daily road blockades and claiming 'carcinogenic anodes' from a former aluminum plant are being excavated at a construction site.
Donald Trump's administration is pursuing a deregulation blitz, including ending the EPA's 'endangerment' finding, and is considering an overhaul of steel and aluminum tariffs.
President Trump announced the selection of three projects in Texas, Ohio, and Georgia as the first phase of Japan's 80 trillion yen investment in the US.
Futures, Global Markets Rise With US Markets Closed For President's Day
Stocks gained, bitcoin tumbled and bonds steadied after Friday's cool CPI data reinforced expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates on multiple occasions this year. With US markets closed for the Presidents’ Day holiday and mainland China’s markets closed for Lunar New Year holidays, trading was muted on Monday. As of 9:00am ET, futures on the S&P 500 added 0.4% and Europe’s Stoxx 600 index rose 0.4% as banking shares rebounded from a sharp decline last week. German bunds and Treasury futures were steady after US yields touched the lowest since December on Friday.
The path of US interest rates remains in focus following Friday’s slower-than-expected US inflation print as traders fully price a Fed cut in July and the strong chance of a move in June.
“The backdrop for equities is positive post CPI,” said Andrea Gabellone, head of global equities at KBC Securities. At the same time, there could be “more dispersion ahead as sentiment around key AI-exposed sectors is still very critical,” he added.
That sentiment was echoed by other strategists seeking to distinguish between AI losers and winners.
A JPMorgan Chase & Co. team led by Mislav Matejka urged caution on stocks at risk of AI-driven “cannibalization,” including software, business services and media companies. Meanwhile, banks are developing baskets to capitalize on the divergence: as we first reported last Thursday, Goldman launched a new basket of software stocks that goes long firms that will benefit from AI adoption, while shorting the companies whose workflows could be replaced.
With AI disruption rippling through markets, a lot will come down to earnings resilience, in particular in the US.
“When you look at the current earnings season, the companies are showing 13% of growth,” Nataliia Lipikhina, head of EMEA equity strategy at JPMorgan, told Bloomberg TV. “Overall, this is the reason why we continue to be positive on the S&P.”
Later this week, traders will be watching for ADP private payrolls numbers on Tuesday and the minutes from the Fed’s January meeting on Wednesday for a fresh read on the economy.
European stocks gained with bank shares rebounding, after posting their biggest weekly decline since April on worries about disruption from artificial intelligence. The basic resources sector lags, with Norsk Hydro among Europe’s worst performers as both Goldman Sachs and RBC downgrade the stock. Stoxx 600 rises 0.4% to 620.26 with 253 members down, 336 up, and 11 unchanged. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:
NatWest shares rise as much as 4%, the most since October, as Citi analyst Andrew Coombs raises his price target on the UK bank to a Street-high.
Seraphim Space shares rise as much as 9.2%, briefly hitting a new all-time high, after the space tech investment firm said the valuations of its four largest holdings increased over the final months of 2025.
AECI shares rally as much as 6.1%, the most since July, after the South African commercial-explosives maker shared improved 2025 headline earnings per share guidance.
Orsted shares rise as much as 3.8% after analysts at Kepler raise the recommendation to buy from hold over the Danish renewable energy firm’s outlook, despite ongoing uncertainty for the industry in the US.
Norsk Hydro shares fall as much as 4.4%, extending Friday’s 5.9% earnings-triggered drop, after being downgraded at Goldman Sachs and RBC over disappointments and pricing pressures in the Norwegian aluminum company’s downstream business.
Galderma shares slip as much as 2.2% after naming Luigi La Corte as its new chief financial officer following the news back in July that Thomas Dittrich was departing.
Pinewood Technologies shares tumble as much as 32%, the most since April 2024, after Apax Partners said on Friday it will not proceed with a possible cash offer for the car dealership software provider.
FlatexDEGIRO shares drop as much as 7.2% after BNP Paribas downgraded the online brokerage firm to neutral from outperform, saying the price reflects too much optimism about its market position in Germany.
Maurel & Prom shares slump as much as 12%, pulling back after ending last week at a 2015-high, after announcing it is not currently authorized to resume oil and gas operations in Venezuela.
Barratt Redrow shares fall as much as 3.7%, leading a drop in British homebuilders after Rightmove said house prices are stalling.
Asian stocks slipped for a second day, led by declines in Japan as traders booked profits after last week’s post-election rally. Several markets were closed or held shortened trading sessions for the Lunar New Year holiday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was down 0.1%. Japan’s Topix Index fell 0.8%, with Mizuho Financial Group Inc. and Toyota Motor Corp. among the companies contributing to the index’s losses.In Hong Kong, AI model developer Minimax Group Inc. surged as much as 30% to more than four times its original listing price, while competitor Knowledge Atlas JSC Ltd. ended 4.7% higher. The market will be closed until Thursday. As investors across the region begin to reevaluate their bets on its artificial-intelligence-driven rally, traders in Japan cashed in gains driven by expectations of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s proactive spending policies last week.Trading in Singapore ended early Monday and will be shut until Wednesday. Equity markets in mainland China, South Korea, Indonesia and Vietnam were closed.
In FX, the yen is the notable mover in currencies, weakening 0.5% against the dollar and pushing USD/JPY back above 153. The offshore yuan is one of the better performers against the greenback. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.1%.
There is no cash trading in Treasuries due to the Presidents’ Day holiday. European government bonds are little changed
In commdities, gold dipped below $5,000 an ounce, as traders booked profits from a gain in the previous session. Bitcoin tried anf ailed to stage a modest rebound; it last traded around $68,275 after posting its fourth consecutive weekly loss, with the cryptocurrency struggling to find clear direction as a weekend rally fizzled once the momentum ignition algos emerged. WTI crude futures tread water near $62.90 a barrel.
Top Headlines
President Trump said there will be voter ID rules in the mid-term elections this year, whether Congress approves it or not, and they will present a legal argument in an Executive Order. Furthermore, Trump said he has searched the depths of legal arguments not yet articulated nor vetted on this subject, and they will be presenting an irrefutable one in the very near future.
Iran says potential energy, mining and aircraft deals on table in talks with US: RTRS
Pentagon threatened to cut its ties with Anthropic over the company’s insistence that some limitations are kept on how the military uses its AI models: RTRS
UK eyes rapid ban on social media for under 16s, curbs to AI chatbots: RTRS
Rampant AI Demand for Memory Is Fueling a Growing Chip Crisis: BBG
Warner Bros. Weighs Reopening Sale Negotiations With Paramount: BBG
Companies Are Replacing CEOs in Record Numbers—and They’re Getting Younger: WSJ
Europe aims to rely less on US defence after Trump's Greenland push: RTRS
DOJ Tells Lawmakers Epstein File Redactions Complied With LawL BBG
For College Applicants, Pressure to Make Summers Count Has Gotten Even Worse: WSJ
Fed's Goolsbee (2027 voter) said on Friday that they are still seeing pretty high services inflation, and he hopes they have seen the peak impact of tariffs, while he added that the job market has been steady, with only modest cooling.
The Break Is Over. Companies Are Jacking Up Prices Again: WSJ
Trade/Tariffs
USTR Greer said the US and Ecuador expect to sign a trade agreement in the coming weeks.
China will waive import value-added taxes on selected seeds, genetic resources, and police dogs through to 2030 to increase agricultural competitiveness and breeding capacity. It was also reported that China will grant zero-tariff access to 53 African nations from May 1st, according to Bloomberg.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his French and German counterparts that China and the EU are partners, not rivals, while he added that China and the EU should manage differences, deepen practical cooperation and work together on global challenges.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks began the week in the green but with gains limited following a lack of major fresh catalysts from over the weekend and amid thinned conditions owing to holiday closures in the region and North America. ASX 200 traded marginally higher with upside led by tech, although gains are capped by underperformance in the utilities, mining, materials and resources sectors, while participants also digested a slew of earnings releases. Nikkei 225 traded indecisively with the index constrained by disappointing Japanese preliminary Q4 GDP data, which showed the economy returned to growth but failed to meet expectations with GDP Q/Q at 0.1% (exp. 0.4%), and annualised GDP at 0.2% (exp. 1.6%). Hang Seng finished higher in a shortened trading session on Chinese New Year's Eve but with upside limited by tech weakness amid some confusion after the Pentagon added several companies including Baidu, Cosco, BYD, Huawei, Nio, SMIC, Tencent, and more to a list of Chinese firms aiding the military on Friday, but then withdrew the updated list shortly after it was posted. Furthermore, price action was also restricted by the closure of mainland markets and the absence of stock connect flows, which will remain shut for more than a week. US equity futures kept afloat in quiet trade amid the absence of drivers and participants. European equity futures indicate a mildly positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.1% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.4% on Friday.
Asian Headlines
Chinese President Xi called for the anchoring of economic growth around domestic demand as its main driver, in a speech during a key policy meeting late last year that was released on Sunday.
China is to establish a permanent financial support framework to promote rural revitalisation and prevent a slide back into poverty, which represents a shift from transitional aid to long-term support.
China’s market regulator summoned major online platform companies on Friday, including Alibaba, Douyin and Meituan, while it directed them to comply with laws and regulations, and rein in promotional practices, according to Bloomberg.
US Secretary of State Rubio and Japanese Foreign Minister Motegi reaffirmed their commitment to deepen bilateral ties.
Disney (DIS) sent a ‘cease and desist’ letter to ByteDance over Seedance 2.0 and alleged that ByteDance has been infringing on its IP to train and develop an AI video generation model without compensation, according to Axios. It was later reported that ByteDance said it would curb its AI video app following Disney's legal threats, according to the BBC.
RBI tightened rules for loans provided to brokers and proprietary firms in an effort to reduce market speculation
FX
DXY eked slight gains in rangebound trade after a lack of major catalysts and with US participants away on Monday.
EUR/USD was little changed amid the absence of any major macro catalysts and with light newsflow from the bloc, while comments from ECB President Lagarde and news that the ECB is to make its repo backstop available to other central banks across the world, did little to spur price action.
GBP/USD held on to most of Friday's spoils but with price action contained by resistance around 1.3650 and following comments from BoE's Mann that the UK economy is sluggish and tepid, with consumers spending less due to being scarred by high inflation.
USD/JPY edged higher and returned to above the 153.00 level in the aftermath of the weaker-than-expected preliminary Q4 GDP data for Japan.
Antipodeans were mixed with little fresh macro drivers and a lack of tier-1 data from either side of the Tasman.
Fixed Income
10yr UST futures traded little changed and held on to last week's spoils after returning above the 113.00 level in the aftermath of the softer US inflation data, while price action was contained to start the week by the closure of US cash markets for Washington's Birthday.
Bund futures lacked demand in the absence of any major catalysts and with light newsflow from the bloc.
10yr JGB futures were marginally higher following disappointing preliminary GDP data for Q4, but with gains limited after failing to sustain a brief reclaim of the 132.00 level.
Commodities
Crude futures were rangebound amid light energy-specific newsflow from over the weekend and after last Friday's indecisive performance, where attention was on a source report that noted OPEC+ is leaning towards resuming oil output hikes from April, but with no decision made.
Slovak PM Fico said he has information that the Druzhba pipeline has been fixed after damage in Ukraine, although he believes that supplies to Hungary and Slovakia have become a part of political blackmail.
Spot gold took a breather after edging higher in the aftermath of the recent softer-than-expected US inflation data, with price action also contained by the holiday closures across Asia and North America.
Copper futures were subdued, with their largest buyer away for more than a week due to the Chinese New Year/Spring Festival holiday.
Texas venture-backed startup Hertha Metal vowed mass production of steel with 25% cost savings, which could reduce US reliance on imports.
Geopolitics: Middle East
US military is preparing for potential operations against Iran that could last for weeks if US President Trump orders an attack and the US fully expects Iran to retaliate, according to sources cited by Reuters.
US President Trump told Israeli PM Netanyahu during a meeting in December that he would support Israel striking Iran’s ballistic missile program if the US and Iran are not able to reach a deal, according to CBS.
Iran confirmed that indirect talks between the US and Iran will resume in Geneva on Tuesday under the mediation of Oman, while Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi left for Geneva on Sunday.
Iranian diplomat said Iran is open to nuclear deal compromises if the US discusses lifting sanctions, while it was also reported that Iran said potential energy, mining and aircraft deals are on the table in talks with the US.
Israel’s cabinet approved the proposal to register West Bank lands as ‘state property’, while Palestinians condemned the ‘de facto annexation’ which Peace Now said likely amounts to a ‘mega land grab’.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
US President Trump said on Friday that Ukrainian President Zelensky is going to have to get moving and that Russia wants to get a deal.
US Secretary of State Rubio said they don’t know if Russia is serious about finding an end to the war in Ukraine and will continue to test it, while it was reported that he met with Ukrainian President Zelensky on security and deepening defence and economic partnerships.
Ukrainian drones targeted Russia’s Taman seaport and fuel tanks in the Black Sea region.
UK and European allies were reported on Friday to be weighing seizing Russian shadow fleet ships and tightening curbs on Russia's economy.
French Foreign Minister Barrot said some G7 nations have expressed a willingness to proceed with a maritime services ban on Russian oil, which they hope to include in the 20th sanctions package that they are actively preparing.
Geopolitics: Other
European Commission President von der Leyen said that they face the very distinct threat of outside forces trying to weaken their union, while she added that mutual defence is not an optional task for the European Union; it is an obligation within their own treaty, and it is their collective commitment to stand by each other in case of aggression.
Pentagon said the US military struck an alleged drug cartel boat in the Caribbean, which killed three people.
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnigt wrap
I hope you all had a good weekend. To stay in Winter Olympics mood the family watched "Cool Runnings" last night. I haven't seen it for 32 years. Please don't tell anyone but I had a few tears in my eyes at the end. I blamed it on the hay fever that has now started.
There will be a lot of tears out there in markets for other reasons at the moment. Just two weeks ago, the idea of AI-driven disruption still felt like an abstract, almost academic thought experiment—something we could safely revisit once we had clearer evidence of how AI would be deployed and integrated across the economy. Fast forward 14 days, and markets have wiped out well over a trillion dollars of global equity value on the fear that AI could fundamentally reshape business models and compress profitability across a wide range of industries, including software, legal services, IT consulting, wealth management, logistics, insurance, real estate brokerage and commercial real estate.
Some of the sell off in “old economy” sectors feels overdone to me. But as I argued in our 2026 World Outlook back in November, the real challenge is that even by the end of this year we still won’t have enough evidence to identify the structural winners and losers with confidence. That leaves plenty of room for investors’ imaginations—both optimistic and pessimistic—to run wild. As such big sentiment swings will continue to be the order of the day.
My instinct is that the reaction in things like commercial real estate, for example, has been particularly exaggerated. Markets seem to be extrapolating a scenario in which vast numbers of white collar workers are made redundant almost overnight, leading to a dramatic collapse in office demand. If that view turns out to be correct, we’ll be facing societal challenges far larger than anything currently being priced into equities. While trying to catch a falling knife may be too risky for many, beginning to cushion the descent could be sensible in many old economy sectors. Markets can’t sustain a disruption narrative across multiple sectors for months or quarters without concrete evidence — and that evidence is likely to take much longer to emerge. Fascinating times.
As for this week, today is a US holiday but inflation will remain in the spotlight at a global level after Friday's slightly softer US CPI which helped contribute to a decent rates rally to end the week. Prints are due in the US (PCE - Friday), the UK (Wednesday), Canada (Tuesday) and Japan (Friday). Other economic highlights will include the FOMC minutes (Wednesday), Q4 GDP in the US (Friday), as well as the global flash PMIs (Friday). Earnings reports will feature Walmart (Thursday), Nestlé (Thursday) and BHP (today). It's the earnings calm before next week's Nvidia storm.
In the US, this holiday shortened week (President's Day today) features a data calendar dominated by releases that were pushed back by last year’s government shutdown. The most consequential updates will land on Friday, when the advance estimate of Q4 GDP arrives alongside December’s personal income and consumption figures—key inputs for shaping expectations for the early part of this year.
For markets assessing the underlying pulse of demand heading into 2026, private final sales to domestic purchasers (PFDP) will carry more weight than the headline GDP print. This indicator—closely monitored by Fed Chair Powell—is expected by our economists to slow to 2.0% from 2.9% in Q3, though risks appear tilted upward. One swing factor: Wednesday’s durable goods report, where modest gains outside of transportation could soften the deceleration. On the consumer front, real PCE growth is expected to cool to 2.5% after two quarters of outsized strength but should still signal ample momentum heading into the new year.
Friday’s income and spending report will also offer the latest reading on core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Our economists expect another 0.4% monthly increase for December, lifting the year over year rate to 2.9%. Updated seasonal factors from last week’s CPI release suggest some mild downward pressure on inflation trends in the second half of 2025. Still, January’s CPI data, although softer than we anticipated, do not translate into equivalent relief for core PCE—in fact, our team currently sees another 0.4% gain for January's release (delayed until March 13th). Depending on the strength of medical services, airfare, and portfolio management components in the upcoming PPI report, a 0.5% monthly rise cannot be ruled out, which would push the year over year rate toward 3.1%. So don't get too excited about the softer CPI last week and the huge rates rally.
Additional releases this week will help clarify whether recent severe winter weather has disrupted factory sector activity. January industrial production, due Wednesday, should benefit from a jump in utility output, while weather effects may weigh on the Empire State Survey tomorrow and the Philadelphia Fed survey on Thursday.
Labor market data will also be in focus, particularly Thursday’s jobless claims, which line up with the survey week for the February employment report. As our economists have pointed out, private nonfarm job gains have averaged 103k over the past three months, slightly above the pace at this point in 2025 and matching the start of 2024. See their latest US employment chartbook here.
This week will also feature a dense lineup of Federal Reserve speakers which you can see alongside all the key global data in the day-by-day week ahead calendar at the end as usual.
Moving away from the US, inflation will also be in focus in Japan (Friday) and Canada (tomorrow). For the former, our Chief Japan Economist sees the January nationwide CPI showing a slowdown in both core CPI inflation ex. fresh food to 2.1% YoY (+2.4% in December) and core-core CPI inflation ex. fresh food and energy to 2.7% (+2.9%). Also important will be the global flash PMIs due on Friday as a health check on global growth. In Europe, the spotlight will be on UK inflation (Wednesday), with labour market data due tomorrow and retail sales on Friday. Our UK economist expects headline CPI inflation to drop to 3.0% YoY (3.4% in December) and core CPI also landing at 3.0% YoY (3.2% YoY). See more in his full preview here. In terms of key rate decisions, the RBNZ are expected to remain on hold on Wednesday.
Finally, the Munich Security Conference wrapped up over the weekend, where key topics included Ukraine, Russia, and the fate of Greenland. And while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s speech was nothing like Vice President JD Vance’s at last year’s conference, which triggered a “wake-up” call for European leaders, Rubio reiterated the administration’s view that Europe needed to leave behind its focus on energy policies, trade and mass migration.
Recapping last week now, the tech volatility that has dogged markets since the start of the month broadened into a far more indiscriminate sell-off. The trough came on Thursday, marked by a sharp drop in software stocks, but the weakness extended well beyond tech. Companies across wealth management, real estate and financials suffered double digit declines, underscoring how widespread the pullback has become. Market breadth confirmed this shift as the equal weighted S&P 500 fell -1.37% on Thursday, though it managed to finish the week up +0.29% (+1.04% on Friday). Ultimately, the sell-off left the major US indices on the back foot: the S&P 500 slipped -1.39% (+0.05% on Friday), the Nasdaq lost -2.10% (-0.22% on Friday), and the Magnificent 7 slid -3.24% (-1.11% on Friday).
Although the AI scare dominated sentiment, a heavy slate of US data also shaped the market narrative. Early in the week, softer prints—including flat December retail sales, a dovish Q4 Employment Cost Index, and slower Q4 growth expectations from the Atlanta Fed—pushed Treasury yields lower across the curve. That picture shifted midweek after a stronger than expected January jobs report, which delivered the largest gain in nonfarm payrolls (+130k vs. +65k expected) since December 2024 and reinforced confidence that the US economy carried solid momentum into 2026. Then on Friday, January CPI came in below expectations, adding another dovish note. Although the data offered mixed signals at times, the overall takeaway was sufficiently dovish for traders to increase the number of expected rate cuts by December 2026 to 63.4bps (+7.7bps on the week). This helped drive the largest weekly drop in the 10 year Treasury yield since August 2025, down -15.8bps (-5.0bps on Friday) to 4.05%. The 2 year yield also moved sharply lower, falling -8.9bps to 3.41% (-4.8bps on Friday), its lowest level since 2022.
European markets, meanwhile, delivered a comparatively resilient performance. The STOXX 600 (+0.09%, -0.13% Friday), DAX (+0.78%, +0.25% Friday) and FTSE 100 (+0.74%, +0.42% Friday) all posted modest gains for the week. European sovereign bonds rallied as well, with the 10 year bund yield dropping -8.7bps—its steepest weekly decline since April 2025. That move was outpaced by gilts, which fell -9.8bps (-3.6bps on Friday) despite a sharp early week sell-off triggered by renewed questions surrounding Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s position.
Elsewhere, performance was mixed. Brent crude edged down -0.44% (+0.34% on Friday), while gold extended its upward run, rising +1.56% (+2.43% on Friday).
Will London’s half term week finally give us a quiet week in 2026? You’d probably have to guess at ‘unlikely’.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 02/16/2026 - 09:40
Amenințarea președintelui american Donald Trump de a bloca Strâmtoarea Ormuz, după eșuarea negocierilor cu Iranul la sfârșitul săptămânii trecute, riscă să agraveze un conflict care intră acum în a…
Emirates Global Aluminum (EGA), the largest aluminum producer in the Gulf, has declared force majeure after halting operations at its Al Taweelah smelter, reportedly following Iranian military action.
Livrarea are loc în urma unei relaxări temporare a sancțiunilor impuse de SUA asupra petrolului și produselor rafinate iraniene, menită să atenueze deficitul de aprovizionare.
The European Union's CBAM tax, implemented three months ago, is already affecting Serbia's economy, particularly complicating electricity exports and endangering the iron, steel, and aluminum sectors.
Zacks.com has featured highlights on Cardinal Infrastructure, BrainsWay, and Century Aluminum. These companies are noted for their recent performance or outlook.
A major fire broke out at Dopemu Aluminum Village and Tejuosho Market in Lagos, prompting a swift response from firefighters who successfully contained the blaze.
Iran has claimed to have attacked US-linked steel and aluminum plants in the Persian Gulf, though the exact location and targets of the alleged strike remain unclear.
The Trump administration has announced an overhaul of metal tariffs, signaling a new direction in its trade policy concerning steel and aluminum imports.
Constellium (CSTM) shares climbed 11% as investors reacted to growing concerns regarding the global supply of aluminum, impacting the company's outlook.
With aluminum prices currently in the spotlight, one analyst believes that Constellium stock has the potential to gain an additional 22% from its current position.
The aluminum giant Alcoa, historically a barometer for the US economy, is gaining renewed attention as its stock soars, prompting questions about the resurgence of traditional industries.
Alcoa Corp. (AA) shares surged by 8% following market concerns over potential disruptions to aluminum supply, indicating investor reaction to commodity market dynamics.
European and world stock markets, including Asian equities, are experiencing downward trends for the fifth consecutive week due to intensifying Middle East conflict, which has also caused oil prices to surge towards $117 per barrel and led to a rebound in soybean and corn prices, further fueled by fears of escalation in Iran.
Iran has claimed responsibility for attacks against major industrial sites in the Gulf, specifically Bahrain and UAE aluminium plants, stating they were retaliation for US-Israeli attacks. A series of explosions were also reported in Tehran as the conflict continues to escalate.
Liberal MP Michael Ma's apology for questioning an academic witness about 'hearsay' evidence on Chinese aluminum supply chains comes at a sensitive time, as the US investigates Canada's imports. His party, through MP John Hodgson, has distanced itself from Ma's comments, which appeared to question reports of forced labor in China.
An article clarifies that the difference between the shiny and matte sides of aluminum foil is a result of the manufacturing process and does not affect food preparation, except for special non-stick foils.
Some of the world's largest automakers are reportedly making 'panic purchases' of aluminum due to fears that the Middle East war could impact supply chains and deplete reserves.
Carmakers are urgently seeking to secure aluminum supplies as the Middle East war causes disruptions to power and creates shipping bottlenecks, affecting key production sources in the Gulf.
The Strait of Hormuz serves as a critical passage for various raw materials beyond oil, including fertilizers, aluminum, and helium, highlighting its importance to global supply chains.
Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) plans to reroute its aluminum exports and raw materials through Oman's Sohar port in the coming days, a move prompted by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
Trading on the London Metal Exchange was suspended due to a technical outage during a period of high volatility in commodity prices, reportedly caused by concerns related to the Iran war. This halt has disrupted various metals markets, including aluminum and zinc.
The attack on Iran has caused a high jump in the prices of coal, electricity, and aluminum, in addition to more expensive oil and gas, also leading to problems with the supply of certain products.
BusinessbloomberghinduTimes of India+3hindustan-timesindian-expresszerohedge29d ago6 sources
Fears of LPG shortages are leading to long queues, black marketing concerns, and reports of false deliveries across India, with small eateries in Gurgaon and Noida residents particularly struggling, cutting down operations or claiming non-receipt of cylinders.
B. Riley and BMO Capital have both raised their price targets for Century Aluminum Company (CENX), indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock.
Shumen-based aluminum products manufacturer Alcomet has completed a key project in its €70 million investment program, which began in 2023, by installing a new press and performing its first extrusion.
Analyst Mark Gurman reports that Apple is investigating 3D printing aluminum components for its iPhones and Apple Watches to enhance manufacturing efficiency, potentially leading to more 3D-printed products in the future.
ElvalHalcor is focusing on the growing demand for aluminum and copper from data centers and energy networks, with energy costs and scrap prices identified as key factors for its 2026 performance.
Apple unveils its most budget-friendly laptop, the MacBook Neo, priced Rs 69,900. Featuring the powerful A18 Pro chip, a vibrant 13-inch display, and a sleek aluminum build, it promises impressive performance for everyday tasks and AI workloads. This eco-conscious device, running macOS Tahoe with Apple Intelligence, is available for pre-order now.
The Austrian aluminum producer AMAG reported a one-fifth decrease in profit for 2025, attributing the decline to US tariffs and reduced margins, despite a slight increase in revenue.
An article addresses common questions about aluminum in vaccines and discusses the potential consequences if aluminum-containing vaccines were removed from the market.
They decided on new, more radical protests due to, as they claim, the discovery of "dangerous waste - carcinogenic anodes from the former Aluminum Plant in the plant's excavations"
EU officials expect the United States to reduce tariffs on steel and aluminum products in the coming weeks, a move that would address a long-standing issue affecting transatlantic relations and trade negotiations.
The Portuguese Aluminum Association has issued a warning about the potential negative impacts of a proposed EU-India agreement, stating it could exacerbate unfair competition.
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer indicated that Washington might adjust the implementation of its steel and aluminum tariffs due to company concerns.
Donald Trump's administration is considering a deregulation blitz and an overhaul to steel and aluminum tariffs, signaling potential shifts in economic policy.
The Trump administration is pursuing a deregulation blitz, including ending the EPA's 'endangerment' finding for climate regulation, and is considering an overhaul of steel and aluminum tariffs.
The Trump family company is attempting to trademark the use of the president’s name on any airports, though they state there are no immediate plans to charge a fee.
The Trump administration is reportedly considering significant changes to its steel and aluminum tariffs, potentially impacting international trade relations.
Researchers have developed innovative aluminum structures that trap air bubbles, allowing them to float perpetually and potentially harvest energy from the ocean in harsh environments.
Staff of the Norðurál aluminum company residing in the capital region have been granted an exemption from the evening and night closures of the Hvalfjörður Tunnel.
An aluminum plant worker in Iceland encountered a rockslide, an avalanche, and a reindeer herd crossing the road during his morning commute, highlighting the challenging natural conditions.
A passenger exiting a flight at Hyderabad airport was hit on the head by a heavy aluminum panel that broke off from the aerobridge ceiling, causing injury.
Lović & Co has been appointed as the authorized distributor for the Austrian brand PREFA, a leading European manufacturer of aluminum roofing and facade systems, in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Iran's tallest bridge, connecting Tehran to Karaj, has collapsed following reported US airstrikes, with at least 8 people killed and 95 injured. Iran has threatened American allies in retaliation, and President Trump posted about the strike on social media.
President Trump is reportedly expected to overhaul existing steel and aluminum tariffs, a move that could significantly impact international trade relations and domestic industries.
An article criticizes a specific US tariff on aluminum, labeling it as the 'world's dumbest tariff' and discussing its implications beyond standard product tariffs.
Turkey has announced that its air defenses intercepted a ballistic missile fired from Iran over NATO skies, marking another near-miss incident and escalating the threat to the region.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has stated that the ongoing conflict involving Iran is negatively impacting the economic outlook for many countries. This concern is exacerbated by Iran's attacks on aluminum plants, which are raising the risk of a global supply crisis.
An Iranian demand for tolls in the Strait of Hormuz is being viewed as a potential step away from the rules-based world order, though some doubt its realism. Meanwhile, rules regarding which countries' ships are allowed passage through the strait have been clarified.
A month into the Gulf War, supplies of various raw materials, including urea, aluminum, and helium, are severely hampered, with Gulf countries serving as crucial hubs for processing firms.
Landsvirkjun, Iceland's national power company, and aluminum producer Norðurál have signed a new agreement for electricity purchases at the Grundartangi plant, effective from 2027 to 2033.
A practical tip suggests covering kitchen drawers with aluminum foil, not as a trend, but for tangible benefits, with thousands of people reportedly adopting this method.
The Slovalco aluminum plant, co-owned by Norsk Hydro and Penta, aims to restart its main production after three years, with the Slovak government provisionally promising assistance with high electricity prices.
Aluminum foil is often used for storing food in the freezer, but when is it safe and when is it not? Many households use aluminum foil to wrap food before...
An energy chief warns that the Iran war could 'bring down the economies of the world' and predicts $150 oil, while the Swedish finance minister has already lowered the country's growth forecast due to tightening oil supplies from the conflict.
Analysts are discussing Kaiser Aluminum's (KALU) shares following the company's recent earnings report, evaluating its financial performance and market position.
After a brief peak following the war in Ukraine, metal prices are again near record levels, with aluminum prices rising over 27% in the past year to over $3300 per ton, improving profitability for metallurgical companies.
A significant supply shock in the aluminum market has led to a massive options bet coming into the money, reflecting market reactions to the disruption.
ElvalHalcor anticipates energy costs and scrap prices to be key drivers for 2026, fueled by increased demand for aluminum and copper from data centers in Europe and the US, as well as energy network applications and packaging.
A Greek article clarifies that it does not matter which side of aluminum foil, shiny or matte, touches food, as both sides are made of the same material and have identical properties.
Oil and gas prices soared, stock markets slid and the dollar firmed on Monday as the widening Iran war shook financial markets across the globe.
The post Energy prices soar, stock markets slide on…
Prime Minister Fico has again pledged assistance to the Slovalco aluminum plant, but the plant's director states that a restart next year is not yet certain, requiring an acceptable electricity supply contract by June.
Slovak Prime Minister Fico seeks to revive the Slovalco aluminum plant through a memorandum that would return part of its environmental fund payments and secure a long-term electricity supply with favorable terms, though the plant's restart remains uncertain.
Century Aluminum's CFO provided details on the restart of the Mount Holly facility, a projected $300M EBITDA run-rate, and plans for an Oklahoma smelter.
A new study has found a link between aluminum cookware used in Ghana and lead exposure, raising concerns about environmental health and prompting calls for policy commentary.
The CEO of Norðurál, Gunnar Guðlaugsson, stated that efforts to procure new parts and transformers after major damage at the Grundartangi aluminum plant in October have progressed better than expected. The plant aims to return to full capacity by the end of July, following the failure of two power transformers.
An analysis delves into the structure and characteristics of the MAGA right, while also exploring how the term 'populism' has evolved and lost its original meaning.
Donald Trump's administration is considering a deregulation blitz and an overhaul to steel and aluminum tariffs, signaling potential shifts in economic policy.