President Trump announced he had called off a planned military strike against Iran, citing requests from Gulf states and ongoing negotiations. He indicated a potential for a diplomatic resolution and a possible nuclear deal.
The FTSE 100 index closed up by 1.3%, gaining 128.38 points to reach 10,323.75, as bond markets showed signs of calm. Meanwhile, oil prices experienced another rise.
Global bond markets experienced a significant selloff, driven by investor concerns over flaring inflation and rising oil prices. This market reaction reflects growing anxieties about economic stability.
The UK Labour Party is facing a severe leadership crisis, with over 80 Labour members reportedly demanding Keir Starmer's resignation and speculation rising about potential challengers. This internal turmoil has overshadowed King Charles's recent speech, highlighting Starmer's perceived unpopularity and the party's disarray.
British Prime Minister Starmer is facing a significant leadership crisis following multiple resignations from his government and growing calls from within his own party to set a departure timetable. The political turmoil has intensified pressure on his premiership, despite him surviving a recent cabinet session.
An article discusses the appropriate approach for politicians when communicating with bond markets, suggesting that a combative stance with investors is not advisable despite potential frustrations over the cost of money.
A popular notion suggests bond traders can predict the future, but bond markets are often incorrect. This article warns that bond yields may currently be low relative to existing risks, indicating a potential bubble in the bond market.
The yield on ten-year US government bonds has been highly volatile for weeks, reflecting a significant struggle in bond markets between concerns over inflation and the potential for recession.
AA Financial's DFGX addition serves as a reminder for investors to consider global bond markets beyond just U.S. bonds. The move suggests a broader perspective on fixed-income investments.
European bond markets have experienced a sovereign debt sell-off, with Britain, Italy, and France particularly affected, a trend reportedly sparked by the ongoing Iran war.
Government bond markets are experiencing increased volatility, with yields whipsawing due to interest rate uncertainty and the fragile nature of the Middle East ceasefire agreement.
A Bitcoin-backed municipal bond has successfully cleared a significant hurdle by receiving a rating from Moody's, marking a notable development in the cryptocurrency and bond markets.
Recent wild movements in the bond markets, influenced by the Iran crisis, have reportedly made a particular retirement strategy look more attractive than it has in decades.
International government bond markets are experiencing significant pressure, with prices falling sharply and yields, including the 10-year yield reaching 3.98%, causing concern among Eurozone finance ministries.
A financial strategist forecasts that lower interest rates for U.S. Treasuries are likely to persist, offering a perspective on the future direction of bond markets.
The week ahead for FX and bonds will focus on central bank decisions, particularly in light of recent jumps in energy prices, as market participants assess the impact on currency and bond markets.
Global bond markets faced renewed selling pressure Wednesday as rising oil prices linked to the U.S.-Iran war led traders to bet that central banks may have to scrap planned rate c...
The upcoming week for foreign exchange and bond markets will focus heavily on the release of U.S. jobs data, which is expected to influence market movements.
Investors in loans and private credit are catching up to fears about artificial intelligence, which have already impacted stock and bond markets, raising concerns about a singularity in software debt.
Hedge funds have increased bearish bets on the British pound, citing risks associated with Andy Burnham's potential premiership. Concerns about spiraling borrowing costs have emerged, prompting discussions on how to placate bond markets and Burnham's commitment to adhering to government borrowing limits.
The head of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, stated that the sell-off in international bond markets reflects the impact of higher oil prices.
Global stock and bond markets experienced a downturn as bond yields surged to one-year highs, fueled by rising oil prices and renewed inflation concerns. This market volatility has led to increased speculation about potential future interest rate hikes by central banks.
Global stock and bond markets experienced declines, with bond yields rising, as traders reacted to growing concerns over inflation. The British pound also saw a decrease in value.
Former UK Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner has been cleared by HMRC of any wrongdoing regarding her tax affairs. The investigation concluded with her settling a tax bill, prompting her to call for Labour to deliver change.
Analysis suggests that bond markets are exhibiting an overly complacent attitude towards rising inflation, potentially underestimating its future impact.
Labour leader Keir Starmer hosted a summit with community leaders to address rising antisemitism, even as he faced reports of Labour MPs plotting to oust him from leadership.
Investors are focusing on upcoming U.S. jobs data to gauge the economic outlook, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to influence currency and bond markets.
Morning market analysis indicates that hawkish stances from central banks are causing jitters in bond markets, while the technology sector appears to remain unaffected.
Global central banks are facing a significant test in managing inflation, which is being exacerbated by ongoing conflicts, as bond markets anticipate new signals.
Concerns over inflation have led to the largest outflows from Asian bond markets in four years. Investors are reacting to rising price pressures, prompting a shift in investment strategies across the region.
Financial markets are exhibiting warning signs that have historically preceded every recession since 1970, prompting concerns among economists and investors.
A fund that successfully navigated a market rout is now cautioning that populist government policies are likely to have a detrimental effect on bond markets.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has sharply criticized Spain and other European NATO allies for their limited support in the war with Iran, calling their alleged lack of assistance 'very disappointing' and suggesting Washington might reassess its relationship with the alliance after the conflict concludes, questioning the benefits of the alliance for the US.
The Iran crisis is significantly affecting bond markets, leading to an inflationary energy shock that has dampened optimism for UK rate cuts and impacted hedge fund trades, with analysts noting the real story is in bonds and the yield curve.
The upcoming week for foreign exchange and bond markets will focus on central bank decisions, particularly in light of recent increases in energy prices.
Escalation of the Middle East conflict has led to a downturn in European bond markets and Wall Street, with soaring oil and gas prices weighing on investor sentiment.
ECB Quietly Prepares Global Liquidity Backstop As Euro Debt Wave Builds
Submitted by Thomas Kolbe
Starting in the third quarter of 2026, new rules will apply to the so-called euro repo facility. Central banks worldwide will be able to post up to €50 billion in euro-denominated collateral, such as government bonds, with the ECB in order to obtain euro liquidity from the central bank in cases of acute need. The goal is to guarantee the permanent availability of euro liquidity, replacing the previously time-limited repo lines.
Central banks typically resort to this monetary policy instrument during phases of acute liquidity stress — most recently during the COVID lockdowns. The repo facility counts among the central banks’ immediate crisis tools. The so-called EUREP (Eurosystem Repo Facility for Central Banks) was launched on June 25, 2020, as a short-term liquidity solution for associated central banks: the Central Bank of Kosovo drew €100 million, Montenegro €250 million in short-term liquidity assistance.
Repo auctions generally involve the exchange and short-term pledging of European government bonds for maturities of one to five days, which commercial banks deposit at the central bank in return for liquidity. The collateral is returned after a short period, and the so-called bank reserves are withdrawn again once the liquidity problem has been resolved and the interbank market is functioning properly.
The ECB’s announcement that it will now offer this instrument globally — and over periods of several weeks or even months — raises eyebrows. It suggests that the monetary guardians of the Eurosystem may be anticipating a liquidity crisis in the not-too-distant future.
Euro as a Reserve Currency
The drastic expansion of sovereign debt within the eurozone system may explain why concerns are deepening at the ECB tower. If the two pillars, Germany and France, are each calculating net new borrowing of five percent this year alone — thereby placing a steadily growing volume of bonds on the markets — this generates palpable upward pressure on interest rates. At the same time, investors are asking how strongly the creditworthiness of individual euro states ultimately depends on Germany’s ability to service the mounting debt — a pressure that is manifesting itself in markets.
Interest rates have already been rising for more than three years, particularly at the long end of the bond market. This suggests that confidence among large investors, who traditionally provide the bulk of liquidity in this market, is gradually eroding. Meanwhile, the euro is under pressure internationally: euro-denominated reserves currently account for less than 20 percent of global bank reserves and show a slight downward trend. Similar developments can be observed in the settlement of international transactions, where the euro holds roughly a 24 percent share.
The dominant global actor remains the U.S. dollar, both as a reserve currency with a 59 percent share and in the settlement of international transactions at 47 percent. Against this backdrop, it becomes clear that Europe’s monetary authorities are facing an increasingly challenging combination of rising debt, growing interest rates, and a global environment that does not accord the euro the status of the U.S. dollar — factors that pose serious questions for the Eurosystem’s stability and liquidity.
A severe blow to the euro’s international role was the European Union decision to permanently implement the Russia embargo and halt trade in Russian oil and gas. Russia had been among the few major energy market players willing to allow euro denomination and thus held substantial reserves. That era is over.
However, rumors are circulating that the United States, in the event of a peace settlement in Ukraine, could restore Russia’s access to the SWIFT system. Would the EU then follow suit? A return to the status quo ante might require a different political regime in Brussels and Berlin.
Growing Debt Volume
A fiscal policy U-turn within the EU is also under discussion. Should member states agree on a “two-speed Europe” and implement joint financing of new debt via so-called Eurobonds, this would place the European bond market on an entirely new footing in terms of both volume and structure.
European taxpayers — above all the still relatively less indebted Germans at the federal level — would then stand behind the credit guarantees. In Frankfurt, such a revolutionary step is expected to deliver a massive boost in global demand for euro-denominated bonds.
One unknown in the geopolitical power struggle remains the Federal Reserve. On several occasions last year, the ECB warned of a possible shortage of U.S. dollars within the European banking system. The United States holds a powerful lever here: it can drive up the political price of bridging potential illiquidity through rapid swap lines — short-term loans within the dollar system to European banks and the ECB.
Oversupply of Euro Bonds
The Eurosystem thus faces immense absorption problems. If global demand for EU debt — that is, euro bonds — cannot be generated, interest rates will continue to rise. In light of the massive issuance wave of new euro sovereign bonds, the ECB would be forced to take this debt onto its own balance sheet to keep debt servicing in member states under control.
The expansion of the repo facility into a permanent liquidity backstop therefore appears plausible. Global central banks would have an incentive to accumulate a growing share of euro bonds. Moreover, the volume would be available to gain direct access to the Eurosystem without assembling a portfolio of bonds from individual states. Germany’s relatively low debt level had in fact recently been a problem, as insufficient tranches of German federal bonds were available for larger capital allocations. Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his finance minister are currently eliminating this issue with their present debt policy.
The ECB’s measures thus fit into a broader fiscal policy development that could culminate in a structural expansion of joint debt. By institutionally safeguarding international demand for euro bonds, the central bank is creating the infrastructural preconditions for a potential new debt regime within the European Union — while simultaneously shifting the boundary between monetary stabilization and fiscal support of state budgets.
The European repo facility, once conceived as a rescue umbrella for liquidity problems, is gradually evolving into a classic, expanding debt pool. With eurozone government debt likely to rise from the current 92 percent of GDP to around 100 percent over the next two years, pressure on the ECB to devise mechanisms for distributing this flood of debt across global bond markets will intensify.
Whether this succeeds appears highly doubtful given the euro economy’s chronic economic weakness.
* * *
About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.
Tyler Durden
Fri, 02/20/2026 - 08:30
Andy Burnham, Mayor of Manchester, has launched a direct challenge to Keir Starmer for the leadership of the UK Labour Party, vowing to 'change Labour' and reopening debates on key issues like Brexit. This challenge comes amidst a by-election and reports of internal party chaos.
Japanese bond yields have significantly increased, leading a downturn in global bond markets, as strategists point to rising inflation fears and fiscal concerns as the primary drivers.
Dozens of European countries and the EU have approved or signed an agreement to establish a special tribunal to prosecute Russian leaders for the crime of aggression against Ukraine. This initiative aims to hold those responsible for the invasion accountable.
Labour leader Keir Starmer is facing mounting pressure to resign after four ministers quit and calls for his departure grew louder within the party. Despite the crisis, Starmer has refused to step down, maintaining the backing of some MPs.
A notable divergence is observed between the stock and bond markets, with stock investors showing exuberance and betting on significant corporate profits despite ongoing conflicts, while bond investors exhibit more subdued concerns.
An analysis suggests that the British economy is constrained by the tension between voter expectations and the limitations imposed by bond markets, which exert significant influence over UK politics.
Bond traders are closely watching a week packed with central bank rate decisions, seeking potential sell signals. Policymakers are grappling with the risk of war-driven inflation shocks, which could influence government bond markets.
The upcoming week for FX and bond markets will see the release of U.S. retail sales and PMI data, with continued attention on developments in the Middle East.
UK and European bond markets are experiencing a significant rout, with rising yields having implications for the financial well-being of everyday citizens.
International government bond markets are experiencing strong pressures, leading to a sharp fall in bond prices and a surge in yields, with the 10-year yield reaching 3.98%.
Goldman Sachs has issued a warning that bond markets may be excessively focused on inflation and that investors should consider portfolio changes as risks of a market correction are rising, with bonds unlikely to provide protection.
AI Boom And European Bond Markets: A Deep Dive
Submitted by Thomas Kolbe
The “credit pump” could rightfully claim its place as a symbolic flag of the European Union. With virtually unlimited access to the bond market, politics magically transforms an inexhaustible credit stream into political maneuvers and ideological wizardry. Through this manipulation of money, processes and institutions are transplanted into the real world that, under normal circumstances, could never have...
The financial markets are looking ahead to the release of U.S. jobs data, which will be a key focus for foreign exchange and bond markets in the coming week.
Despite a calmer period in the bond markets, investing in bonds, including corporate bonds with good credit ratings, can still offer attractive interest rates and opportunities for investors.