IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva cautioned central banks against hastily raising interest rates amidst growing fears of a global recession.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated that central banks should exercise caution and not rush into hiking interest rates.

Central banks globally have extended their gold buying streak to 23 consecutive months, with reserves growing by 25 tonnes year-to-date, indicating a continued trend in monetary policy.

The new conflict in the Middle East has unexpectedly altered economic and financial market scenarios, posing a new inflationary risk. Central banks may need to raise interest rates to control inflation.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated that central banks face the challenge of balancing energy inflation with softening demand. She emphasized the need for careful policy decisions in the current economic climate.

A recent survey indicates a significant increase in central banks' concern regarding rising geopolitical tensions globally.

Markets are bracing for a new round of interest rate increases across the Eurozone, influenced by escalating tensions in the Middle East and persistent inflationary pressures. This follows recent hawkish communications from European central banks that have already contributed to tightening monetary policy.

Gold experienced its largest monthly drop in nearly 13 years, with some central banks shifting from buying to selling, yet experts suggest this could enhance its value for investors.

Central banks worldwide are grappling with a significant dilemma on how to effectively respond to the challenges posed by another major energy shock.

Foreign central banks have significantly reduced their holdings of US Treasury bonds at the New York Federal Reserve to their lowest level since 2012, reportedly selling these assets to support their economies and currencies amidst the ongoing war with Iran.

Central banks across Europe continue to be undecided on the necessity of further interest rate increases, reflecting ongoing economic uncertainty.

Singapore is exploring the possibility of expanding its gold storage facilities to accommodate global central banks, potentially solidifying its role as a key financial hub.

Foreign central banks, particularly those from oil-importing nations, have significantly reduced their holdings of US Treasury bonds at the New York Federal Reserve, driven by increased payments for dollar-denominated oil.

Hong Kong is actively pursuing plans to establish itself as a significant gold-trading hub in Asia, including efforts to attract central bank gold reserves to boost its status in the global market.

An article authored by Nick Giambruno critiques the concept of 'independent' central banks, drawing parallels between the economic situations in Zimbabwe and Washington to illustrate his argument.

A commentary argues that central banks must take the latest oil price shock seriously from the outset, learning from past mistakes where they massively underestimated inflation, which cost them credibility.

Central banks worldwide are signaling a significant shift in their outlook on interest rate bets, indicating potential changes in global monetary policy.

Analysis of recent central bank decisions indicates that the Bank of England has adopted the most significant shift in its rhetoric on interest rates following the recent energy shock.

The Euro and Japanese Yen saw gains in yesterday's trading session, while the US Dollar weakened against major currencies. This market movement occurred as major central banks opted to keep their monetary policies unchanged.

Policymakers at central banks globally are bracing for potential war-led inflation and the risk of 'stagflation,' aiming to control prices without hindering economic growth.

The Euro and Japanese Yen have strengthened against the US Dollar, which eased after central banks decided to maintain their current interest rates. This development reflects shifts in global currency markets following monetary policy decisions.

Depois de a Fed ter decidido manter as taxas de juro, esta quinta-feira deverá ser a vez de o BCE fazer o mesmo. Os bancos centrais temem que um erro na política monetária possa custar muito caro.

Wenn die US-Notenbank Federal Reserve heute und die EZB morgen über ihre Geldpolitik entscheiden, tun sie das in einem radikal veränderten Umfeld.

The dollar declined for a second consecutive day as markets await signals from major central banks following recent shifts in macroeconomic data.

The dollar retreated from a 10-month high as the world's four major central banks (US, Eurozone, England, and Japan) prepare to convene this week, drawing market attention.

This week's key events include numerous central bank announcements, the release of Producer Price Index (PPI) data, and ongoing developments in the war in Iran, shaping the economic and geopolitical landscape.

Geopolitical tensions and policies associated with former President Trump are reportedly causing significant shifts and challenges for major global central banks, including the Fed, ECB, and BOJ.

Investors are advised to monitor seven key central bank meetings scheduled for next week, which are expected to impact global markets.

Central banks globally are reportedly scrambling to respond to rising inflation expectations, a trend exacerbated by ongoing international conflicts and geopolitical tensions.

The ongoing conflict involving Iran is causing a new wave of economic instability, driving up energy and fertilizer prices, threatening food shortages in vulnerable countries, destabilizing fragile states, and complicating efforts by central banks to control inflation.

Iran conflict forces Asian central banks into sharp policy rethink  AzerNews

Inflation fears over higher energy prices could force central banks to take action, a top fund official said.

Iran Conflict Puts Oil Shock Back on Asian Central Banks’ Radar  WSJ

Adam Glapiński, President of the National Bank of Poland, met with US Ambassador Tom Rose to discuss cooperation between their central banks and the growing role of gold in the global economy.

A new economic 'trilemma' is emerging for central banks, suggesting that policymakers cannot simultaneously achieve three desirable outcomes, posing challenges for future monetary policy.

ECB Quietly Prepares Global Liquidity Backstop As Euro Debt Wave Builds Submitted by Thomas Kolbe Starting in the third quarter of 2026, new rules will apply to the so-called euro repo facility. Central banks worldwide will be able to post up to €50 billion in euro-denominated collateral, such as government bonds, with the ECB in order to obtain euro liquidity from the central bank in cases of acute need. The goal is to guarantee the permanent availability of euro liquidity, replacing the previously time-limited repo lines. Central banks typically resort to this monetary policy instrument during phases of acute liquidity stress — most recently during the COVID lockdowns. The repo facility counts among the central banks’ immediate crisis tools. The so-called EUREP (Eurosystem Repo Facility for Central Banks) was launched on June 25, 2020, as a short-term liquidity solution for associated central banks: the Central Bank of Kosovo drew €100 million, Montenegro €250 million in short-term liquidity assistance. Repo auctions generally involve the exchange and short-term pledging of European government bonds for maturities of one to five days, which commercial banks deposit at the central bank in return for liquidity. The collateral is returned after a short period, and the so-called bank reserves are withdrawn again once the liquidity problem has been resolved and the interbank market is functioning properly. The ECB’s announcement that it will now offer this instrument globally — and over periods of several weeks or even months — raises eyebrows. It suggests that the monetary guardians of the Eurosystem may be anticipating a liquidity crisis in the not-too-distant future. Euro as a Reserve Currency The drastic expansion of sovereign debt within the eurozone system may explain why concerns are deepening at the ECB tower. If the two pillars, Germany and France, are each calculating net new borrowing of five percent this year alone — thereby placing a steadily growing volume of bonds on the markets — this generates palpable upward pressure on interest rates. At the same time, investors are asking how strongly the creditworthiness of individual euro states ultimately depends on Germany’s ability to service the mounting debt — a pressure that is manifesting itself in markets. Interest rates have already been rising for more than three years, particularly at the long end of the bond market. This suggests that confidence among large investors, who traditionally provide the bulk of liquidity in this market, is gradually eroding. Meanwhile, the euro is under pressure internationally: euro-denominated reserves currently account for less than 20 percent of global bank reserves and show a slight downward trend. Similar developments can be observed in the settlement of international transactions, where the euro holds roughly a 24 percent share. The dominant global actor remains the U.S. dollar, both as a reserve currency with a 59 percent share and in the settlement of international transactions at 47 percent. Against this backdrop, it becomes clear that Europe’s monetary authorities are facing an increasingly challenging combination of rising debt, growing interest rates, and a global environment that does not accord the euro the status of the U.S. dollar — factors that pose serious questions for the Eurosystem’s stability and liquidity. A severe blow to the euro’s international role was the European Union decision to permanently implement the Russia embargo and halt trade in Russian oil and gas. Russia had been among the few major energy market players willing to allow euro denomination and thus held substantial reserves. That era is over. However, rumors are circulating that the United States, in the event of a peace settlement in Ukraine, could restore Russia’s access to the SWIFT system. Would the EU then follow suit? A return to the status quo ante might require a different political regime in Brussels and Berlin. Growing Debt Volume A fiscal policy U-turn within the EU is also under discussion. Should member states agree on a “two-speed Europe” and implement joint financing of new debt via so-called Eurobonds, this would place the European bond market on an entirely new footing in terms of both volume and structure. European taxpayers — above all the still relatively less indebted Germans at the federal level — would then stand behind the credit guarantees. In Frankfurt, such a revolutionary step is expected to deliver a massive boost in global demand for euro-denominated bonds. One unknown in the geopolitical power struggle remains the Federal Reserve. On several occasions last year, the ECB warned of a possible shortage of U.S. dollars within the European banking system. The United States holds a powerful lever here: it can drive up the political price of bridging potential illiquidity through rapid swap lines — short-term loans within the dollar system to European banks and the ECB. Oversupply of Euro Bonds The Eurosystem thus faces immense absorption problems. If global demand for EU debt — that is, euro bonds — cannot be generated, interest rates will continue to rise. In light of the massive issuance wave of new euro sovereign bonds, the ECB would be forced to take this debt onto its own balance sheet to keep debt servicing in member states under control. The expansion of the repo facility into a permanent liquidity backstop therefore appears plausible. Global central banks would have an incentive to accumulate a growing share of euro bonds. Moreover, the volume would be available to gain direct access to the Eurosystem without assembling a portfolio of bonds from individual states. Germany’s relatively low debt level had in fact recently been a problem, as insufficient tranches of German federal bonds were available for larger capital allocations. Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his finance minister are currently eliminating this issue with their present debt policy. The ECB’s measures thus fit into a broader fiscal policy development that could culminate in a structural expansion of joint debt. By institutionally safeguarding international demand for euro bonds, the central bank is creating the infrastructural preconditions for a potential new debt regime within the European Union — while simultaneously shifting the boundary between monetary stabilization and fiscal support of state budgets. The European repo facility, once conceived as a rescue umbrella for liquidity problems, is gradually evolving into a classic, expanding debt pool. With eurozone government debt likely to rise from the current 92 percent of GDP to around 100 percent over the next two years, pressure on the ECB to devise mechanisms for distributing this flood of debt across global bond markets will intensify. Whether this succeeds appears highly doubtful given the euro economy’s chronic economic weakness. * * *  About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination. Tyler Durden Fri, 02/20/2026 - 08:30

Futures, Global Markets Rise With US Markets Closed For President's Day Stocks gained, bitcoin tumbled and bonds steadied after Friday's cool CPI data reinforced expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates on multiple occasions this year. With US markets closed for the Presidents’ Day holiday and mainland China’s markets closed for Lunar New Year holidays, trading was muted on Monday. As of 9:00am ET, futures on the S&P 500 added 0.4% and Europe’s Stoxx 600 index rose 0.4% as banking shares rebounded from a sharp decline last week. German bunds and Treasury futures were steady after US yields touched the lowest since December on Friday. The path of US interest rates remains in focus following Friday’s slower-than-expected US inflation print as traders fully price a Fed cut in July and the strong chance of a move in June.   “The backdrop for equities is positive post CPI,” said Andrea Gabellone, head of global equities at KBC Securities. At the same time, there could be “more dispersion ahead as sentiment around key AI-exposed sectors is still very critical,” he added.  That sentiment was echoed by other strategists seeking to distinguish between AI losers and winners. A JPMorgan Chase & Co. team led by Mislav Matejka urged caution on stocks at risk of AI-driven “cannibalization,” including software, business services and media companies. Meanwhile, banks are developing baskets to capitalize on the divergence: as we first reported last Thursday, Goldman launched a new basket of software stocks that goes long firms that will benefit from AI adoption, while shorting the companies whose workflows could be replaced. With AI disruption rippling through markets, a lot will come down to earnings resilience, in particular in the US.  “When you look at the current earnings season, the companies are showing 13% of growth,” Nataliia Lipikhina, head of EMEA equity strategy at JPMorgan, told Bloomberg TV. “Overall, this is the reason why we continue to be positive on the S&P.” Later this week, traders will be watching for ADP private payrolls numbers on Tuesday and the minutes from the Fed’s January meeting on Wednesday for a fresh read on the economy. European stocks gained with bank shares rebounding, after posting their biggest weekly decline since April on worries about disruption from artificial intelligence. The basic resources sector lags, with Norsk Hydro among Europe’s worst performers as both Goldman Sachs and RBC downgrade the stock. Stoxx 600 rises 0.4% to 620.26 with 253 members down, 336 up, and 11 unchanged. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:  NatWest shares rise as much as 4%, the most since October, as Citi analyst Andrew Coombs raises his price target on the UK bank to a Street-high. Seraphim Space shares rise as much as 9.2%, briefly hitting a new all-time high, after the space tech investment firm said the valuations of its four largest holdings increased over the final months of 2025. AECI shares rally as much as 6.1%, the most since July, after the South African commercial-explosives maker shared improved 2025 headline earnings per share guidance. Orsted shares rise as much as 3.8% after analysts at Kepler raise the recommendation to buy from hold over the Danish renewable energy firm’s outlook, despite ongoing uncertainty for the industry in the US. Norsk Hydro shares fall as much as 4.4%, extending Friday’s 5.9% earnings-triggered drop, after being downgraded at Goldman Sachs and RBC over disappointments and pricing pressures in the Norwegian aluminum company’s downstream business. Galderma shares slip as much as 2.2% after naming Luigi La Corte as its new chief financial officer following the news back in July that Thomas Dittrich was departing. Pinewood Technologies shares tumble as much as 32%, the most since April 2024, after Apax Partners said on Friday it will not proceed with a possible cash offer for the car dealership software provider. FlatexDEGIRO shares drop as much as 7.2% after BNP Paribas downgraded the online brokerage firm to neutral from outperform, saying the price reflects too much optimism about its market position in Germany. Maurel & Prom shares slump as much as 12%, pulling back after ending last week at a 2015-high, after announcing it is not currently authorized to resume oil and gas operations in Venezuela. Barratt Redrow shares fall as much as 3.7%, leading a drop in British homebuilders after Rightmove said house prices are stalling. Asian stocks slipped for a second day, led by declines in Japan as traders booked profits after last week’s post-election rally. Several markets were closed or held shortened trading sessions for the Lunar New Year holiday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was down 0.1%. Japan’s Topix Index fell 0.8%, with Mizuho Financial Group Inc. and Toyota Motor Corp. among the companies contributing to the index’s losses.In Hong Kong, AI model developer Minimax Group Inc. surged as much as 30% to more than four times its original listing price, while competitor Knowledge Atlas JSC Ltd. ended 4.7% higher. The market will be closed until Thursday. As investors across the region begin to reevaluate their bets on its artificial-intelligence-driven rally, traders in Japan cashed in gains driven by expectations of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s proactive spending policies last week.Trading in Singapore ended early Monday and will be shut until Wednesday. Equity markets in mainland China, South Korea, Indonesia and Vietnam were closed.  In FX, the yen is the notable mover in currencies, weakening 0.5% against the dollar and pushing USD/JPY back above 153. The offshore yuan is one of the better performers against the greenback. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.1%. There is no cash trading in Treasuries due to the Presidents’ Day holiday. European government bonds are little changed In commdities, gold dipped below $5,000 an ounce, as traders booked profits from a gain in the previous session. Bitcoin tried anf ailed to stage a modest rebound; it last traded around $68,275 after posting its fourth consecutive weekly loss, with the cryptocurrency struggling to find clear direction as a weekend rally fizzled once the momentum ignition algos emerged.  WTI crude futures tread water near $62.90 a barrel.  Top Headlines President Trump said there will be voter ID rules in the mid-term elections this year, whether Congress approves it or not, and they will present a legal argument in an Executive Order. Furthermore, Trump said he has searched the depths of legal arguments not yet articulated nor vetted on this subject, and they will be presenting an irrefutable one in the very near future. Iran says potential energy, mining and aircraft deals on table in talks with US: RTRS Pentagon threatened to cut its ties with Anthropic over the company’s insistence that some limitations are kept on how the military uses its AI models: RTRS UK eyes rapid ban on social media for under 16s, curbs to AI chatbots: RTRS Rampant AI Demand for Memory Is Fueling a Growing Chip Crisis: BBG Warner Bros. Weighs Reopening Sale Negotiations With Paramount: BBG Companies Are Replacing CEOs in Record Numbers—and They’re Getting Younger: WSJ Europe aims to rely less on US defence after Trump's Greenland push: RTRS DOJ Tells Lawmakers Epstein File Redactions Complied With LawL BBG For College Applicants, Pressure to Make Summers Count Has Gotten Even Worse: WSJ Fed's Goolsbee (2027 voter) said on Friday that they are still seeing pretty high services inflation, and he hopes they have seen the peak impact of tariffs, while he added that the job market has been steady, with only modest cooling.  The Break Is Over. Companies Are Jacking Up Prices Again: WSJ Trade/Tariffs USTR Greer said the US and Ecuador expect to sign a trade agreement in the coming weeks. China will waive import value-added taxes on selected seeds, genetic resources, and police dogs through to 2030 to increase agricultural competitiveness and breeding capacity. It was also reported that China will grant zero-tariff access to 53 African nations from May 1st, according to Bloomberg. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his French and German counterparts that China and the EU are partners, not rivals, while he added that China and the EU should manage differences, deepen practical cooperation and work together on global challenges. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks began the week in the green but with gains limited following a lack of major fresh catalysts from over the weekend and amid thinned conditions owing to holiday closures in the region and North America. ASX 200 traded marginally higher with upside led by tech, although gains are capped by underperformance in the utilities, mining, materials and resources sectors, while participants also digested a slew of earnings releases. Nikkei 225 traded indecisively with the index constrained by disappointing Japanese preliminary Q4 GDP data, which showed the economy returned to growth but failed to meet expectations with GDP Q/Q at 0.1% (exp. 0.4%), and annualised GDP at 0.2% (exp. 1.6%). Hang Seng finished higher in a shortened trading session on Chinese New Year's Eve but with upside limited by tech weakness amid some confusion after the Pentagon added several companies including Baidu, Cosco, BYD, Huawei, Nio, SMIC, Tencent, and more to a list of Chinese firms aiding the military on Friday, but then withdrew the updated list shortly after it was posted. Furthermore, price action was also restricted by the closure of mainland markets and the absence of stock connect flows, which will remain shut for more than a week. US equity futures kept afloat in quiet trade amid the absence of drivers and participants. European equity futures indicate a mildly positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.1% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.4% on Friday. Asian Headlines Chinese President Xi called for the anchoring of economic growth around domestic demand as its main driver, in a speech during a key policy meeting late last year that was released on Sunday. China is to establish a permanent financial support framework to promote rural revitalisation and prevent a slide back into poverty, which represents a shift from transitional aid to long-term support. China’s market regulator summoned major online platform companies on Friday, including Alibaba, Douyin and Meituan, while it directed them to comply with laws and regulations, and rein in promotional practices, according to Bloomberg. US Secretary of State Rubio and Japanese Foreign Minister Motegi reaffirmed their commitment to deepen bilateral ties. Disney (DIS) sent a ‘cease and desist’ letter to ByteDance over Seedance 2.0 and alleged that ByteDance has been infringing on its IP to train and develop an AI video generation model without compensation, according to Axios. It was later reported that ByteDance said it would curb its AI video app following Disney's legal threats, according to the BBC. RBI tightened rules for loans provided to brokers and proprietary firms in an effort to reduce market speculation FX DXY eked slight gains in rangebound trade after a lack of major catalysts and with US participants away on Monday. EUR/USD was little changed amid the absence of any major macro catalysts and with light newsflow from the bloc, while comments from ECB President Lagarde and news that the ECB is to make its repo backstop available to other central banks across the world, did little to spur price action. GBP/USD held on to most of Friday's spoils but with price action contained by resistance around 1.3650 and following comments from BoE's Mann that the UK economy is sluggish and tepid, with consumers spending less due to being scarred by high inflation. USD/JPY edged higher and returned to above the 153.00 level in the aftermath of the weaker-than-expected preliminary Q4 GDP data for Japan. Antipodeans were mixed with little fresh macro drivers and a lack of tier-1 data from either side of the Tasman. Fixed Income 10yr UST futures traded little changed and held on to last week's spoils after returning above the 113.00 level in the aftermath of the softer US inflation data, while price action was contained to start the week by the closure of US cash markets for Washington's Birthday. Bund futures lacked demand in the absence of any major catalysts and with light newsflow from the bloc. 10yr JGB futures were marginally higher following disappointing preliminary GDP data for Q4, but with gains limited after failing to sustain a brief reclaim of the 132.00 level. Commodities Crude futures were rangebound amid light energy-specific newsflow from over the weekend and after last Friday's indecisive performance, where attention was on a source report that noted OPEC+ is leaning towards resuming oil output hikes from April, but with no decision made. Slovak PM Fico said he has information that the Druzhba pipeline has been fixed after damage in Ukraine, although he believes that supplies to Hungary and Slovakia have become a part of political blackmail. Spot gold took a breather after edging higher in the aftermath of the recent softer-than-expected US inflation data, with price action also contained by the holiday closures across Asia and North America. Copper futures were subdued, with their largest buyer away for more than a week due to the Chinese New Year/Spring Festival holiday. Texas venture-backed startup Hertha Metal vowed mass production of steel with 25% cost savings, which could reduce US reliance on imports. Geopolitics: Middle East US military is preparing for potential operations against Iran that could last for weeks if US President Trump orders an attack and the US fully expects Iran to retaliate, according to sources cited by Reuters. US President Trump told Israeli PM Netanyahu during a meeting in December that he would support Israel striking Iran’s ballistic missile program if the US and Iran are not able to reach a deal, according to CBS. Iran confirmed that indirect talks between the US and Iran will resume in Geneva on Tuesday under the mediation of Oman, while Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi left for Geneva on Sunday. Iranian diplomat said Iran is open to nuclear deal compromises if the US discusses lifting sanctions, while it was also reported that Iran said potential energy, mining and aircraft deals are on the table in talks with the US. Israel’s cabinet approved the proposal to register West Bank lands as ‘state property’, while Palestinians condemned the ‘de facto annexation’ which Peace Now said likely amounts to a ‘mega land grab’. Geopolitics: Ukraine US President Trump said on Friday that Ukrainian President Zelensky is going to have to get moving and that Russia wants to get a deal. US Secretary of State Rubio said they don’t know if Russia is serious about finding an end to the war in Ukraine and will continue to test it, while it was reported that he met with Ukrainian President Zelensky on security and deepening defence and economic partnerships. Ukrainian drones targeted Russia’s Taman seaport and fuel tanks in the Black Sea region. UK and European allies were reported on Friday to be weighing seizing Russian shadow fleet ships and tightening curbs on Russia's economy. French Foreign Minister Barrot said some G7 nations have expressed a willingness to proceed with a maritime services ban on Russian oil, which they hope to include in the 20th sanctions package that they are actively preparing. Geopolitics: Other European Commission President von der Leyen said that they face the very distinct threat of outside forces trying to weaken their union, while she added that mutual defence is not an optional task for the European Union; it is an obligation within their own treaty, and it is their collective commitment to stand by each other in case of aggression. Pentagon said the US military struck an alleged drug cartel boat in the Caribbean, which killed three people. DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnigt wrap I hope you all had a good weekend. To stay in Winter Olympics mood the family watched "Cool Runnings" last night. I haven't seen it for 32 years. Please don't tell anyone but I had a few tears in my eyes at the end. I blamed it on the hay fever that has now started. There will be a lot of tears out there in markets for other reasons at the moment. Just two weeks ago, the idea of AI-driven disruption still felt like an abstract, almost academic thought experiment—something we could safely revisit once we had clearer evidence of how AI would be deployed and integrated across the economy. Fast forward 14 days, and markets have wiped out well over a trillion dollars of global equity value on the fear that AI could fundamentally reshape business models and compress profitability across a wide range of industries, including software, legal services, IT consulting, wealth management, logistics, insurance, real estate brokerage and commercial real estate. Some of the sell off in “old economy” sectors feels overdone to me. But as I argued in our 2026 World Outlook back in November, the real challenge is that even by the end of this year we still won’t have enough evidence to identify the structural winners and losers with confidence. That leaves plenty of room for investors’ imaginations—both optimistic and pessimistic—to run wild. As such big sentiment swings will continue to be the order of the day. My instinct is that the reaction in things like commercial real estate, for example, has been particularly exaggerated. Markets seem to be extrapolating a scenario in which vast numbers of white collar workers are made redundant almost overnight, leading to a dramatic collapse in office demand. If that view turns out to be correct, we’ll be facing societal challenges far larger than anything currently being priced into equities. While trying to catch a falling knife may be too risky for many, beginning to cushion the descent could be sensible in many old economy sectors. Markets can’t sustain a disruption narrative across multiple sectors for months or quarters without concrete evidence — and that evidence is likely to take much longer to emerge. Fascinating times. As for this week, today is a US holiday but inflation will remain in the spotlight at a global level after Friday's slightly softer US CPI which helped contribute to a decent rates rally to end the week. Prints are due in the US (PCE - Friday), the UK (Wednesday), Canada (Tuesday) and Japan (Friday). Other economic highlights will include the FOMC minutes (Wednesday), Q4 GDP in the US (Friday), as well as the global flash PMIs (Friday). Earnings reports will feature Walmart (Thursday), Nestlé (Thursday) and BHP (today). It's the earnings calm before next week's Nvidia storm. In the US, this holiday shortened week (President's Day today) features a data calendar dominated by releases that were pushed back by last year’s government shutdown. The most consequential updates will land on Friday, when the advance estimate of Q4 GDP arrives alongside December’s personal income and consumption figures—key inputs for shaping expectations for the early part of this year. For markets assessing the underlying pulse of demand heading into 2026, private final sales to domestic purchasers (PFDP) will carry more weight than the headline GDP print. This indicator—closely monitored by Fed Chair Powell—is expected by our economists to slow to 2.0% from 2.9% in Q3, though risks appear tilted upward. One swing factor: Wednesday’s durable goods report, where modest gains outside of transportation could soften the deceleration. On the consumer front, real PCE growth is expected to cool to 2.5% after two quarters of outsized strength but should still signal ample momentum heading into the new year. Friday’s income and spending report will also offer the latest reading on core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Our economists expect another 0.4% monthly increase for December, lifting the year over year rate to 2.9%. Updated seasonal factors from last week’s CPI release suggest some mild downward pressure on inflation trends in the second half of 2025. Still, January’s CPI data, although softer than we anticipated, do not translate into equivalent relief for core PCE—in fact, our team currently sees another 0.4% gain for January's release (delayed until March 13th). Depending on the strength of medical services, airfare, and portfolio management components in the upcoming PPI report, a 0.5% monthly rise cannot be ruled out, which would push the year over year rate toward 3.1%. So don't get too excited about the softer CPI last week and the huge rates rally. Additional releases this week will help clarify whether recent severe winter weather has disrupted factory sector activity. January industrial production, due Wednesday, should benefit from a jump in utility output, while weather effects may weigh on the Empire State Survey tomorrow and the Philadelphia Fed survey on Thursday. Labor market data will also be in focus, particularly Thursday’s jobless claims, which line up with the survey week for the February employment report. As our economists have pointed out, private nonfarm job gains have averaged 103k over the past three months, slightly above the pace at this point in 2025 and matching the start of 2024. See their latest US employment chartbook here. This week will also feature a dense lineup of Federal Reserve speakers which you can see alongside all the key global data in the day-by-day week ahead calendar at the end as usual. Moving away from the US, inflation will also be in focus in Japan (Friday) and Canada (tomorrow). For the former, our Chief Japan Economist sees the January nationwide CPI showing a slowdown in both core CPI inflation ex. fresh food to 2.1% YoY (+2.4% in December) and core-core CPI inflation ex. fresh food and energy to 2.7% (+2.9%). Also important will be the global flash PMIs due on Friday as a health check on global growth. In Europe, the spotlight will be on UK inflation (Wednesday), with labour market data due tomorrow and retail sales on Friday. Our UK economist expects headline CPI inflation to drop to 3.0% YoY (3.4% in December) and core CPI also landing at 3.0% YoY (3.2% YoY). See more in his full preview here. In terms of key rate decisions, the RBNZ are expected to remain on hold on Wednesday. Finally, the Munich Security Conference wrapped up over the weekend, where key topics included Ukraine, Russia, and the fate of Greenland. And while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s speech was nothing like Vice President JD Vance’s at last year’s conference, which triggered a “wake-up” call for European leaders, Rubio reiterated the administration’s view that Europe needed to leave behind its focus on energy policies, trade and mass migration. Recapping last week now, the tech volatility that has dogged markets since the start of the month broadened into a far more indiscriminate sell-off. The trough came on Thursday, marked by a sharp drop in software stocks, but the weakness extended well beyond tech. Companies across wealth management, real estate and financials suffered double digit declines, underscoring how widespread the pullback has become. Market breadth confirmed this shift as the equal weighted S&P 500 fell -1.37% on Thursday, though it managed to finish the week up +0.29% (+1.04% on Friday). Ultimately, the sell-off left the major US indices on the back foot: the S&P 500 slipped -1.39% (+0.05% on Friday), the Nasdaq lost -2.10% (-0.22% on Friday), and the Magnificent 7 slid -3.24% (-1.11% on Friday). Although the AI scare dominated sentiment, a heavy slate of US data also shaped the market narrative. Early in the week, softer prints—including flat December retail sales, a dovish Q4 Employment Cost Index, and slower Q4 growth expectations from the Atlanta Fed—pushed Treasury yields lower across the curve. That picture shifted midweek after a stronger than expected January jobs report, which delivered the largest gain in nonfarm payrolls (+130k vs. +65k expected) since December 2024 and reinforced confidence that the US economy carried solid momentum into 2026. Then on Friday, January CPI came in below expectations, adding another dovish note. Although the data offered mixed signals at times, the overall takeaway was sufficiently dovish for traders to increase the number of expected rate cuts by December 2026 to 63.4bps (+7.7bps on the week). This helped drive the largest weekly drop in the 10 year Treasury yield since August 2025, down -15.8bps (-5.0bps on Friday) to 4.05%. The 2 year yield also moved sharply lower, falling -8.9bps to 3.41% (-4.8bps on Friday), its lowest level since 2022. European markets, meanwhile, delivered a comparatively resilient performance. The STOXX 600 (+0.09%, -0.13% Friday), DAX (+0.78%, +0.25% Friday) and FTSE 100 (+0.74%, +0.42% Friday) all posted modest gains for the week. European sovereign bonds rallied as well, with the 10 year bund yield dropping -8.7bps—its steepest weekly decline since April 2025. That move was outpaced by gilts, which fell -9.8bps (-3.6bps on Friday) despite a sharp early week sell-off triggered by renewed questions surrounding Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s position. Elsewhere, performance was mixed. Brent crude edged down -0.44% (+0.34% on Friday), while gold extended its upward run, rising +1.56% (+2.43% on Friday). Will London’s half term week finally give us a quiet week in 2026? You’d probably have to guess at ‘unlikely’. Tyler Durden Mon, 02/16/2026 - 09:40

Central banks worldwide are reportedly concerned about the current economic situation and the dilemmas they face in managing it.

An article explains the fundamental reasons why central banks around the world are deeply concerned with controlling inflation and its impact on economic stability.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cautioned central banks against leaving inflation to “spiral out of control” amidst uncertainty surrounding the Middle East war.

The International Monetary Fund's managing director has lowered the global economic outlook, cautioning that war has significantly altered forecasts and central banks must be prepared to raise interest rates to control inflation.

An oil shock is intensifying the risk of foreign exchange intervention by central banks across Asia as countries grapple with the economic fallout and currency volatility.

An analysis suggests that the current oil shock presents unique challenges, with governments and central banks potentially lacking sufficient policy tools to contain the resulting economic fallout.

Central banks are finding that measuring inflation expectations has become more of an art than an exact science since the COVID-19 pandemic, despite developing new tools to fill data gaps.

The global economy is entering a new phase of uncertainty, with rising energy prices from the Middle East conflict potentially driving inflation while simultaneously weakening growth, posing a significant challenge for central banks.

Europe's central banks remain undecided on the necessity of future interest rate rises, reflecting ongoing economic uncertainties and policy debates.

Europe's central banks remain undecided on whether further interest rate rises will be necessary, reflecting ongoing economic uncertainty.

Central banks are taking a cautious "wait and watch" approach as market conditions tighten, allowing them time to assess the economic landscape.

The US Dollar's share as a global reserve currency has dropped to a 31-year low, as central banks worldwide increasingly diversify their reserves into other currencies and gold.

Asian stock markets are extending a global rout, with bonds also hammered, as a prolonged war continues to impact financial stability, prompting Asian nations to take steps to stabilize their markets, including South Korea purchasing bonds and Manila conducting a surprise rate review.

A report indicates that the Indian central bank is in discussions with four to five other central banks regarding cross-border Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) initiatives.

The article discusses whether central banks should engage in gold trading, highlighting the significant price volatility of the metal in recent months.

Gold extended its losing streak as expectations of tighter monetary policies from central banks reduced its appeal, as the precious metal typically loses value when interest rates are high.

Central banks from Washington to Kyiv are maintaining current interest rates as the ongoing Iran war continues to send global oil prices soaring, impacting economic stability.

Major central banks are maintaining flexibility in their monetary policy as traders increasingly suspect that ongoing conflicts could lead to interest rate hikes.

The war in Iran has upset the economic equilibrium Europe threatening energy supplies, growth and the outlook for consumer prices, upsetting economic forecasts.

European stock exchanges closed in positive territory, boosted by a temporary drop in oil prices, ahead of this year's meeting of four central banks and in the context of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Central banks globally are anticipated to shift towards a more hawkish monetary policy direction in response to recent supply shocks, which is expected to influence economic conditions in the coming months.

World’s Top Central Banks Are About to Confront Fresh Inflation Threat as War Jolts Oil  Bloomberg.com

Yana Repanshek from the Center of Excellence in Finance (CEF) emphasizes that strong institutions are crucial for achieving lasting stability, particularly in Southeast and Eastern European countries where CEF supports financial ministries and central banks.

Higher oil prices will ‘significantly change the game plan’ for central banks in developing nations, say economists

As yet another supply shock hits, central banks will hope its duration is short

Central Banks Can't Stop Wars Authored by Alexander Salter via TheDailyEconomy.org, Every time conflict erupts in the Middle East and oil prices jump, the same anxiety follows: will…

The answers unfortunately depend on how long the conflict lasts

Gold prices have fallen for a second consecutive day, influenced by expectations of central banks maintaining higher interest rates for an extended period.

India's Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman attributed the rise in gold prices to increased buying by central banks and strong domestic demand, assuring that the government is monitoring the situation.

Crypto giant Tether is now a leading gold buyer, acquiring nearly two tonnes weekly, surpassing many nations, in a move driven by its tokenized gold.

Despite policies pushing global investors away from the US dollar and making alternatives more attractive, global central banks are not expected to react to the dollar's current weakness.

Again, the worsening terms of trade and the potential for reduced foreign investor appetite could pressure some currencies.

Indian households are estimated to possess between $2.4 trillion and $10 trillion worth of gold, an amount that surpasses the reserves of the world's ten largest central banks. This vast private gold holding highlights a significant economic and cultural phenomenon in India.

IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva has cautioned central banks against prematurely raising interest rates, advising them to closely monitor economic data before making decisions on inflation-induced adjustments.

A country is reportedly preparing new gold storage facilities with the ambition of becoming the world's 'safe' for gold, as central banks globally manage nearly 39,000 tons of the precious metal.

The central banks of Azerbaijan and Georgia have conducted an exchange on financial stability, fostering cooperation between the two nations.

The Eurosystem, comprising the European Central Bank and national central banks of the 20 euro area member states, has published its comprehensive strategy for the future of European payments. This roadmap aims to guide the evolution of payment systems across the region.

Most global central banks are holding their monetary policy steady, citing the ongoing impact of war as a factor muddying the overall economic outlook.

Central banks across Europe are currently undecided on whether to implement further interest rate increases.

European governments are maintaining targeted and temporary fiscal support measures to address high energy prices, navigating difficult trade-offs for central banks in the region.

The escalating threat of a war involving Iran is projected to potentially reverse the trend of central banks acting as major gold buyers, impacting global gold markets.

Central banks are grappling with complex and often invisible economic challenges, navigating a landscape fraught with uncertainty.

Financial professionals are concerned that the Iran war will force the world's central banks to rapidly raise interest rates. The market has quickly shifted its view on interest rates in response to the conflict.

As the global economy faces a new energy shock and brittle labor markets, investors should prepare for the possibility that central banks may not provide their usual support, unlike in past market wobbles.

An Icelandic broadcast features a segment titled 'The dog man Lars Løkke and George Clooney of the central banks,' likely a cultural or commentary piece unrelated to current global events.

A new analysis suggests that central banks will not be providing significant market intervention or 'rescue' efforts during the current economic climate, departing from past practices.

The US dollar has dipped as rising oil prices lead central banks globally to adopt more hawkish monetary policies to combat inflation.

Major central banks are reportedly holding their key interest rates steady despite increasing energy prices, opting to await further developments in the Persian Gulf region.

The ongoing oil crisis in the Persian Gulf is causing gasoline prices to respond significantly, with economists analyzing the unexpected impacts and potential for sustained inflation if oil prices remain above $100 per barrel.

Central banks worldwide are struggling to set monetary policy as energy prices soar following strikes on natural gas facilities in Iran and Qatar, leading to a highly uncertain inflationary outlook.

Fed, BoC strike hawkish tones as top central banks convene in war's shadow  Reuters

Eighteen central banks are set to assess the economic impact of the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran this week, with former Czech National Bank Governor Jiří Rusnok predicting slightly higher inflation.

Oil prices yo-yoed on Monday, opening well above the $100-a-barrel mark after another weekend of furious confusion over the potential outcome of the war in Iran, but swinging lower on news some…

European stock exchanges closed in positive territory, boosted by a temporary decline in oil prices, ahead of this year's meeting of four central banks.

Keeping inflation under control becomes a critical task for central banks.

Seven central banks are set to make rate decisions next week, which will serve as an inflation test and could significantly impact Bitcoin's performance.

55-year-old Kevin Warsh will start as the chairman of the US Federal Reserve in the spring. But will he become a monetary policy hawk or a dove?

Economist Peter Schiff warns of a potential dollar collapse, noting that central banks are actively purchasing gold to bolster their national currencies.

Global bond markets faced renewed selling pressure Wednesday as rising oil prices linked to the U.S.-Iran war led traders to bet that central banks may have to scrap planned rate c...

Iran war expected to derail rate-cut plans as policymakers learn lessons from inflation caused by Ukraine invasion

Iran Conflict Puts Oil Shock Back on Asian Central Banks’ Radar  WSJ

How can central banks defend their independence and their credibility without appearing political themselves?

The global economy and geopolitics are entering a 'fifth gear' by 2026, with central banks worldwide, from Warsaw to Beijing, rapidly accumulating gold amidst dollar uncertainty. India is emerging as a key player in the global order.

Panics, Politics, & Power: America's 3 Experiments With Central Banks Authored by Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times, The Federal Reserve, established more than a century ago, is the United States’ third experiment with central banking. For much of its existence, the institution maintained a low public profile. Only after the 2008 global financial crisis did the Fed begin communicating more openly, introducing post-meeting press conferences and allowing monetary policymakers to engage more frequently with the media. Greater transparency, however, has brought greater scrutiny. Public sentiment toward the Fed and its leadership has fluctuated over the years. Today, YouGov polling suggests the central bank is viewed favorably by 44 percent of Americans and unfavorably by 18 percent. If the Fed pursues a series of reforms, it will have “another great 100 years,” said Kevin Warsh, who was nominated by President Donald Trump to serve as the institution’s next chair. Comparable to past central banks, Warsh said, the current Federal Reserve System is beginning to lose the consent of the governed. “You can think about the Jacksonians of prior times say that the central bank seems like they’re trying to focus and they’re all preoccupied with those special interests on the East Coast, and they’ve lost track of what’s happening to us in the center of the country,” Warsh said in a July 2025 interview with the Hoover Institution’s Peter Robinson. “It’s a version of what worries me today.” What happened in the past, and why is it relevant to today’s central bank? The First Bank of the United States In the aftermath of the American Revolution, the United States faced a series of immense economic disruptions, forcing the nation’s architects to rebuild the economy. The objective was to lower inflation, restore the value of the nation’s currency, repay war debt, and revive the economy. Alexander Hamilton, the first secretary of the Treasury under the new Constitution, proposed establishing a national bank modeled on the Bank of England. Hamilton stated that a U.S. version would perform various duties, including issuing paper money, serving as the government’s fiscal agent, and protecting public funds. Not everyone shared Hamilton’s ebullience over a central bank. Thomas Jefferson, for example, feared that such an institution would not serve the nation’s best interests. Additionally, Jefferson and other critics argued that the Constitution did not grant the government the authority to create these entities. Nevertheless, Congress enacted legislation to establish the Bank of the United States. President George Washington then signed the bill in February 1791. Two of America's founding fathers: Thomas Jefferson (L) and Alexander Hamilton. The White House While bank officials did not conduct monetary policy as modern central banks do, they did influence the supply of money and credit, as well as interest rates. The entity managed the money supply by controlling when to redeem or retain state‑bank notes. If it sought to tighten credit, it would require payment in gold or silver, thereby draining state banks’ reserves and limiting their ability to issue new notes. If it wanted to expand credit, it simply held on to those notes, boosting state‑bank reserves and enabling them to lend more. By 1811, the national bank’s charter expired. While there had been discussions of allowing it to continue maintaining operations, Congress—both chambers—voted against renewing its mandate by a single vote. Its closure came shortly before the War of 1812, which fueled inflation and weakened the currency. Second Bank of the United States Lawmakers believed another central bank was critical at a time of fiscal, inflationary, and trade pressures. Congress used a similar 20-year model to produce the Second Bank of the United States, headed by Nicholas Biddle. The second incarnation had a federal charter, was privately owned, and was tasked with regulating state banks (with gold and silver for note redemption). President James Madison, who opposed the first central bank on constitutional grounds, supported the new institution out of financial necessity. Its creation stabilized credit and brought down inflation. However, by the 1830s, the bank faced strong opposition, particularly from President Andrew Jackson. Labeled the Bank War, Jackson engaged in a years-long initiative to dissolve the central bank. Jackson claimed the national bank was a tool for the wealthy eastern elite and a threat to self-government. “The Jacksonians described themselves as conscious hard-money men who supported the rigid discipline of the gold standard, yet they opposed the newly powerful national Bank because it restrained the expansion of credit and, thus, thwarted robust economic expansion,” author William Greider wrote in “Secrets of the Temple.” In 1832, Jackson vetoed legislation to recharter the bank four years early, delivering a fiery message that historians say was one of the most important vetoes in the nation’s history. “It is to be regretted that the rich and powerful too often bend the acts of government to their selfish purposes. Distinctions in society will always exist under every just government,” Jackson wrote. “There are no necessary evils in government. Its evils exist only in its abuses. If it would confine itself to equal protection, and, as Heaven does its rains, shower its favors alike on the high and the low, the rich and the poor, it would be an unqualified blessing. In the act before me, there seems to be a wide and unnecessary departure from these just principles.” The charter expired in 1836, leading to the panic of 1837. An economic crisis unfolded, leading to bank failures, business bankruptcies, rising unemployment, and contracting credit. While the collapse of the central bank is often considered a leading cause, the British also urged London banks to reduce credit to American merchants, causing a sharp drop in global trade. As the smoke cleared and dust settled, it was not until the 1840s that the United States embarked on a historic economic recovery, now known as the Free Banking Era. Banking was decentralized, and finance was largely unregulated. Despite an erratic financial system, the U.S. economy grew rapidly: agricultural production accelerated, railroads were built, and the country expanded westward. Additionally, deflation was paramount throughout most of the economic expansion. The Federal Reserve System The panic of 1907 led to the creation of the Federal Reserve System. Following years of heavy borrowing, speculative commodities investments (mainly copper), and enormous stock market gains, a financial crisis was brewing. The event nearly brought down the U.S. banking system. J.P. Morgan, a financier, intervened and emulated the actions of modern central banks. He met with the nation’s top bankers, facilitated emergency loans to financial institutions, and backed stockbrokers. The damage had been done as the United States fell into a year-long recession, marked by high unemployment and widespread bank failures. The Federal Reserve Board of Governors seal in Washington on Oct. 29, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times Washington realized that it could not rely on private bailouts to prevent sharp downturns. Sen. Nelson Aldrich (R-R.I.) is widely regarded as one of the chief architects of the modern Federal Reserve System. In 1910, Aldrich hosted the famous Jekyll Island meetings, a gathering of U.S. officials and bankers, to discuss the blueprint of a new central bank. While the initial draft laid the foundation for the institution, the official Federal Reserve Act was drafted by President Woodrow Wilson, Rep. Carter Glass (D-Va.), and H. Parker Willis, an economist on the House Banking Committee. The new system was a public-private hybrid, with the federal government firmly in charge, and bankers running the regional reserve banks. “It was Wilson’s great compromise,” wrote Greider, “creating a hybrid institution that mixed private and public control, an approach without precedent at the time.” The legislation triggered a contentious political debate over the extent of its independence from the Treasury and the degree of authority delegated to policymakers over currency issuance. Days before Christmas, the bill cleared both chambers and was signed into law by Wilson on Dec. 23. “Wilson’s conviction that he had struck the right moderate balance seemed confirmed, however, by the reactions to his legislation,” Greider noted. “It was attacked by both extremes—the ‘radicals’ from the Populist states and the bankers in Wall Street and elsewhere.” Since its inception in 1913, the modern Federal Reserve has undergone numerous changes and has gained greater power. The New Deal, for instance, allowed the Fed to become the lender of last resort as Washington learned the central bank could not prevent bank failures. In 1951, the Treasury-Fed Accord restored central bank independence after the Federal Reserve had been forced to keep interest rates artificially low throughout the Second World War. Congress then enacted the Federal Reserve Reform Act in 1977, establishing the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and maintaining price stability. 2026 and Beyond Over the past 50 years, the Fed has undergone modest changes, including the issuance of forward guidance and the disclosure of emergency lending facilities. But while each new regime has nibbled around the edges, Warsh has suggested he could effect substantial reforms at the central bank. “Until there’s regime change at the Fed and new people running the Fed, a new operating framework, they’re stuck with their old mistakes,” Warsh told Fox Business Network in October 2025. “Bygones aren’t just bygones.” Tyler Durden Wed, 02/18/2026 - 16:20