A financial advice column addresses questions regarding the optimal use of a €50,000 redundancy payout after job loss and offers guidance on the best places to save for a PCP balloon payment. It provides practical financial planning tips.
EGO Appliance Controls has presented a redundancy plan (ERE) affecting 63 employees at its Llicà de Vall plant, which CC.OO. rejects given that 80% of the workforce is already under an ERTE.
Meta has confirmed proposed staff reductions in Ireland, potentially impacting up to 350 jobs, with employees receiving early morning emails notifying them of the redundancies as the tech giant undergoes restructuring.
Serbian singer Nikola Rokvić and Bosnian singer Amira Medunjanin performed together on stage during Enis Bešlagić's play in Sarajevo, singing Medunjanin's song.
A union has stated that redundancy rules are 'worthless' if Meta contractor Covalen can simply ignore them, as Covalen declined an invitation to discuss over 700 planned redundancies, leading workers to stage a one-day strike.
Thousands of staff at the University of Nottingham have been informed they are at risk of redundancy as the institution faces severe financial challenges, potentially running out of money by 2031. The university plans to cut over 600 academic and support positions.
Ivo Hristov's statement, implying some citizens are 'redundant,' sparked outrage among Bulgarian politicians. A regional governor and an MP from Democratic Bulgaria condemned his remarks, stating he insulted hundreds of thousands of free citizens.
German AI translation company DeepL announced it would lay off approximately a quarter of its workforce, citing that artificial intelligence has made these jobs redundant.
A report suggests that businesses could better leverage employee retirement farewells through small, personalized gestures, such as presenting a personally addressed book, to secure a positive reputation with relatively little effort.
The departure of Mr. Edun has prompted discussions about its potential positive impact and a 'new lease on life' for Nigeria. Analysts are weighing the implications of this change for the nation.
Several major tech companies, including Meta and Microsoft, reported earnings, leading to significant fluctuations in their stock prices. Meta saw a substantial drop after its AI expense estimates, while Microsoft's solid earnings didn't prevent a stock decline.
Several major technology companies, including Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, and Snap, have announced significant job cuts through mass layoffs and voluntary buyout programs. These workforce reductions are occurring amidst a shifting industry landscape, with some companies citing a focus on AI development.
Taiwo Oyedele has officially taken over as Nigeria's Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, following a formal handover from his predecessor, Wale Edun.
The United States influenced the G7 meeting to omit climate change discussions, extended waivers for Russian oil sanctions due to an energy crisis, and faced ongoing tensions with Iran, impacting global diplomacy and military readiness.
Nigeria has replaced its finance minister, a move intended to deepen ongoing reforms within the country's financial sector. The change comes with a review of the former minister's performance.
Nigeria is grappling with a range of issues, including charges related to an alleged plot to overthrow President Tinubu, ongoing political maneuvering for future elections, and efforts to address economic challenges and security incidents.
The popularity of free gym and swimming cards, distributed to conscripts in Lappeenranta since autumn, has slightly increased, offering a valuable benefit worth hundreds of euros, though not all recipients utilize it.
Japan's space agency is expected to diplomatically respond to a US decision to freeze the Lunar Gateway orbiting space station, which could render Japan’s new technologies redundant, prompting a focus on lunar rover development.
The All Progressives Congress (APC) and government officials are defending Nigerian President Tinubu's economic reforms and governance record, asserting their durability and positive impact against critics.
Nigeria's Minister of Finance, Wale Edun, has cautioned against the return of subsidies and called for more affordable financing options, highlighting the burden of high borrowing costs on developing economies.
The descendants of late Sir Ededuna Walter Obaseki have appealed to the Nigerian Federal Government and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to help secure their patriarch’s entitlements reportedly held in the United Kingdom.
Croatian Foreign Minister Gordan Grlić Radman stated his disbelief that the United States would leave NATO and argued that creating a separate European army would be redundant given that most EU members are already part of NATO.
A review of 'Exit 8', director Genki Kawamura’s film adaptation of the indie video game, describes it as a creepy yet redundant take on J-horror tropes set in a surreal single location.
Nigeria's oil output has rebounded to 1.84 million barrels per day, a development praised by Minister Edun and aligning with President Bola Tinubu's mandate to increase production.
Nigeria's Minister of Finance, Olawale Edun, has called on Nigeria and other African countries to urgently address the estimated $88 billion in annual Illicit Financial Flows (IFFs) plaguing the continent.
Iberia and its trade unions have signed an agreement for a voluntary redundancy plan (ERE) that will affect 996 employees, offering incentivized departures and early retirements from ages 58 and 61.
KPMG UK is set to cut nearly 600 roles in its audit division and approximately 120 in advisory services, citing challenging market conditions and unusually low staff turnover as reasons for the proposed redundancies.
Mark Zuckerberg's Meta is developing its own artificial intelligence, a move aimed at streamlining operations that could potentially render many jobs redundant. Reports now indicate Zuckerberg is specifically building an AI version of a CEO to help him run the company.
Die Studie der MedUni Wien betont die Bedeutung einer ganzheitlicher Betreuung in der nicht nur die körperlichen Symptome, sondern auch die psychosoziale Belastung mitberücksichtigt wird.
The Keusote social and healthcare district in Finland has begun its third round of co-determination negotiations, planning to lay off a significant portion of its employees. The exact number of potential redundancies has not yet been disclosed.
A political adviser was informed that a redundancy payment for a Leinster House job would only be available if the Member of European Parliament (MEP) they worked for lost their seat in 2024, when both moved to the European Parliament.
An opinion piece suggests that the solution for security in the Azores does not lie in more legislative bureaucracy or redundant diagnoses, but rather in professionalizing existing structures.
Judge rejects case brought by the senior worker who alleged she was made redundant after reporting a manager for sharing inappropriate stories about his swinger lifestyle.
The Bank of England plans to reduce its workforce by nearly 10% as part of a cost-cutting initiative, with its redundancy scheme reportedly overwhelmed as 700 staff members have applied for payouts.
The Federal Government of Nigeria has commenced the implementation of Executive Order 09, focusing on oil and gas revenues, as announced by the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun.
Many Dutch consumers are reportedly purchasing unnecessary insurance for appliances like washing machines, laptops, and televisions, as much of this coverage is already included in existing policies.
The Adewale Egbedun, Speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly, has led 24 other lawmakers elected on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) into the Accord Party.
The post Osun…
Nigeria’s Finance Minister reports that 9 million of the poorest households received direct cash transfers under a World Bank-backed reform program.
Read More: https://punchng.com/cash-transfers-reached-nine-million-poorest-households-in-nigeria-edun/
A diverse program of musical, educational, and exhibition events, including concerts by Sandra Bagarić and Amira Medunjanin, will be held at BKC on February 27-28 to commemorate Bosnia and Herzegovina's Independence Day.
Nike's management and unions in Laakdal, Antwerp, Belgium, have reached a social agreement concerning a maximum of 371 economic redundancies. The agreement addresses the terms of the layoffs at the sports equipment manufacturer.
ASX-listed company WiseTech has started informing staff about redundancies, which were announced in February to affect almost 30% of its global workforce. Workers report that the term 'AI' was notably omitted from emails sent to Chinese employees regarding the layoffs.
German automotive supplier ZF is continuing to manufacture electric motors but is simultaneously cutting hundreds of jobs in Bavaria as part of its restructuring efforts. Operational redundancies are not ruled out as the company navigates its crisis.
Experts are discussing whether the 600-year-old pedunculate oak, known as 'Dedek' and the oldest tree in Maksimir, truly had to be cut down, amidst public debate.
Members of the Communications Workers' Union (CWU) employed at outsourcing firm Covalen are commencing a one-day strike in a dispute concerning union recognition and redundancy payments.
An Oireachtas committee is discussing the possibility of future public holidays for Irish football playoffs. While a one-off holiday for a recent match was deemed redundant due to a defeat, TDs still consider the idea "very good."
Coinbase suffered a service disruption after a room in an AWS datacenter overheated, causing multiple chillers to fail and affecting its centralized exchange, despite most systems remaining redundant.
A woman recounts her experience of being made redundant shortly after welcoming her first child, spending 10 months searching for work and struggling with self-esteem while questioning the challenges faced by new mothers in the workforce.
Bimbo is preparing its fourth redundancy plan (ERE) in Spain within six years, which will impact 86 employees in logistics centers across A Coruña, Seville, Málaga, and Murcia.
Following a government-formed working group's recommendations after a network outage, Portugal is investing approximately 36 million euros into SIRESP, the state's communications network, to enhance its autonomy and redundancy.
The BBC's news operation is set to implement steeper-than-expected cost cuts of 15%, exceeding the BBC-wide target of 10%. Staff have been warned to anticipate heavy redundancies as part of the corporation's £600 million savings plan.
Meta and its subcontractor are in a dispute after over 1,000 Kenya-based workers were made redundant, with some claiming their jobs were lost after they reported seeing users having sex via smart glasses.
Claire's Accessories has shut down all 154 of its stores across the UK and Ireland, leading to the redundancy of 1,300 employees. The closures mark the retailer's exit from the region.
Wale Edun and Abiru have declared their support for Hamzat's gubernatorial bid in Lagos for the 2027 elections, making their endorsements during separate visits by the aspirant.
Meta Platforms has announced plans to cut approximately 8,000 jobs, representing about 10% of its workforce. This decision comes as the company focuses on its artificial intelligence initiatives.
Pakistan's Chief Justice openly opposed a Judicial Commission meeting concerning the transfer of a judge, arguing it would render key constitutional ideals redundant.
BusinessReutersbloombergNYT+9wsjFTAl JazeeracnbcBusiness InsiderTimes of Indiandtvchannel-news-asia+1 more1mo ago12 sources
Microsoft has announced its first voluntary employee buyout program in 51 years, targeting approximately 7% of its U.S. workforce, or about 8,750 employees. The offer aims to reduce staff through voluntary redundancies.
CS Caritas Socialis has launched 'Nordlicht,' a new care service in Vienna for individuals severely affected by ME/CFS, while MedUni Wien has issued a policy brief with recommendations.
President Tinubu has expressed deep appreciation to Edun and Dangiwa for their dedicated service and significant contributions to the administration’s economic reform programme.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has issued multiple alerts warning the public about a surge in fake emails, online scams, and fraudulent messages targeting bank accounts.
PayPal has announced plans for additional job cuts at its operations in Ireland, particularly affecting its Dublin office. The company has informed the government about these impending redundancies.
An article from La Vanguardia discusses the "fortunate redundancy" of a Magyar (Hungarian) presiding over Hungary, possibly reflecting on national identity or political leadership.
Venezuela has resumed cooperation with the International Monetary Fund and World Bank after a seven-year break, a development celebrated by its government. This comes amidst various IMF warnings to other nations regarding economic policy, including advice against lowering fuel taxes and imposing windfall taxes on energy profits.
Nigeria's Finance Minister, Wale Edun, has cautioned that aggressive interest rate increases could jeopardize the country's ongoing economic reforms amidst global financial pressures.
The Federal government has taken concrete steps in responding to the current global economic uncertainties, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr.
Jack Dorsey, co-founder of Twitter and Block, along with Roelof Botha, CEO of Sequoia Capital, have expressed their view that artificial intelligence has the potential to make middle management roles redundant.
African leaders, including Nigeria's Minister of Finance Olawale Edun, emphasize that strong fiscal institutions and reforms are crucial for curbing illicit financial flows and mobilizing revenues to finance development across the continent, with Africa facing an $88 billion annual loss.
Nigeria's National Assembly plans a two-day national policy dialogue to strengthen economic planning and budgeting, aiming for a $1 trillion economy and 7% annual GDP growth, with the Finance Minister highlighting the need for $14 billion annually for infrastructure.
Wale Edun, Nigeria's Minister of Finance, met with Dr. Quattara Wautabouna, Executive Director for the IMF Africa Group III (ECOWAS) Constituency, in Abuja.
An opinion piece argues that Canada should enforce its existing Criminal Code to protect Jewish communities rather than introducing new legislation like Bill C-9, which is deemed redundant.
Amid global uncertainty, Ireland currently enjoys 'full employment' with less than 5% unemployment, but an article provides information on redundancy should the economy face instability.
Dozens of staff at multiple Claire's Accessories outlets in Ireland are facing weeks without pay after being informed their jobs are gone, with redundancy notices not expected until the second week of April.
Atlassian has laid off approximately 1,600 employees, about 10% of its global workforce, to invest more in AI and enterprise sales. The cuts primarily affected R&D roles. CEO Mike Cannon-Brookes highlighted the difficult decision, emphasizing the need for competitiveness. The company is offering generous severance packages, with redundancy and office exit costs estimated at over $236 million.
Records show that journalist Selina Cheng was terminated by the Wall Street Journal due to redundancy, a top human resources executive for the newspaper’s parent company has told a Hong Kong court. The unlawful dismissal lawsuit brought by Cheng against Dow Jones Publishing Co. (Asia) Inc., alleging that she was fired in July 2024 because […]
Judge rejects case brought by the senior worker who alleged she was made redundant after reporting a manager for sharing inappropriate stories about his swinger lifestyle.
After two decades, Vanja Bogdanović was dismissed from 'Srbijavoz,' officially due to technological redundancy, though she believes the real reason is something else.
The Croatian government rejected the Možemo! party's proposal for a digital child protection law, deeming it redundant due to existing regulations and overlap with European legislation.
Bosnian-Herzegovinian music divas Amira Medunjanin and Sandra Bagarić held a great concert at the Bosnian Cultural Center in Sarajevo on the eve of Bosnia and Herzegovina's Independence Day.
Ebay has informed the government of changes to come at its Irish base in Blanchardstown, which employs around 1,000 people, although it has not yet said it will seek redundancies.
AL Sydbank has covered the largest portion of the costs associated with merging three banks and will now focus on identifying and addressing overlapping roles within the newly combined entity.
Q: I recently took a redundancy package, and I am now job hunting. I’ve been told that LinkedIn is the place where I am most likely to find prospective employers, and have dutifully changed my avatar
Futures, Global Markets Rise With US Markets Closed For President's Day
Stocks gained, bitcoin tumbled and bonds steadied after Friday's cool CPI data reinforced expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates on multiple occasions this year. With US markets closed for the Presidents’ Day holiday and mainland China’s markets closed for Lunar New Year holidays, trading was muted on Monday. As of 9:00am ET, futures on the S&P 500 added 0.4% and Europe’s Stoxx 600 index rose 0.4% as banking shares rebounded from a sharp decline last week. German bunds and Treasury futures were steady after US yields touched the lowest since December on Friday.
The path of US interest rates remains in focus following Friday’s slower-than-expected US inflation print as traders fully price a Fed cut in July and the strong chance of a move in June.
“The backdrop for equities is positive post CPI,” said Andrea Gabellone, head of global equities at KBC Securities. At the same time, there could be “more dispersion ahead as sentiment around key AI-exposed sectors is still very critical,” he added.
That sentiment was echoed by other strategists seeking to distinguish between AI losers and winners.
A JPMorgan Chase & Co. team led by Mislav Matejka urged caution on stocks at risk of AI-driven “cannibalization,” including software, business services and media companies. Meanwhile, banks are developing baskets to capitalize on the divergence: as we first reported last Thursday, Goldman launched a new basket of software stocks that goes long firms that will benefit from AI adoption, while shorting the companies whose workflows could be replaced.
With AI disruption rippling through markets, a lot will come down to earnings resilience, in particular in the US.
“When you look at the current earnings season, the companies are showing 13% of growth,” Nataliia Lipikhina, head of EMEA equity strategy at JPMorgan, told Bloomberg TV. “Overall, this is the reason why we continue to be positive on the S&P.”
Later this week, traders will be watching for ADP private payrolls numbers on Tuesday and the minutes from the Fed’s January meeting on Wednesday for a fresh read on the economy.
European stocks gained with bank shares rebounding, after posting their biggest weekly decline since April on worries about disruption from artificial intelligence. The basic resources sector lags, with Norsk Hydro among Europe’s worst performers as both Goldman Sachs and RBC downgrade the stock. Stoxx 600 rises 0.4% to 620.26 with 253 members down, 336 up, and 11 unchanged. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:
NatWest shares rise as much as 4%, the most since October, as Citi analyst Andrew Coombs raises his price target on the UK bank to a Street-high.
Seraphim Space shares rise as much as 9.2%, briefly hitting a new all-time high, after the space tech investment firm said the valuations of its four largest holdings increased over the final months of 2025.
AECI shares rally as much as 6.1%, the most since July, after the South African commercial-explosives maker shared improved 2025 headline earnings per share guidance.
Orsted shares rise as much as 3.8% after analysts at Kepler raise the recommendation to buy from hold over the Danish renewable energy firm’s outlook, despite ongoing uncertainty for the industry in the US.
Norsk Hydro shares fall as much as 4.4%, extending Friday’s 5.9% earnings-triggered drop, after being downgraded at Goldman Sachs and RBC over disappointments and pricing pressures in the Norwegian aluminum company’s downstream business.
Galderma shares slip as much as 2.2% after naming Luigi La Corte as its new chief financial officer following the news back in July that Thomas Dittrich was departing.
Pinewood Technologies shares tumble as much as 32%, the most since April 2024, after Apax Partners said on Friday it will not proceed with a possible cash offer for the car dealership software provider.
FlatexDEGIRO shares drop as much as 7.2% after BNP Paribas downgraded the online brokerage firm to neutral from outperform, saying the price reflects too much optimism about its market position in Germany.
Maurel & Prom shares slump as much as 12%, pulling back after ending last week at a 2015-high, after announcing it is not currently authorized to resume oil and gas operations in Venezuela.
Barratt Redrow shares fall as much as 3.7%, leading a drop in British homebuilders after Rightmove said house prices are stalling.
Asian stocks slipped for a second day, led by declines in Japan as traders booked profits after last week’s post-election rally. Several markets were closed or held shortened trading sessions for the Lunar New Year holiday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was down 0.1%. Japan’s Topix Index fell 0.8%, with Mizuho Financial Group Inc. and Toyota Motor Corp. among the companies contributing to the index’s losses.In Hong Kong, AI model developer Minimax Group Inc. surged as much as 30% to more than four times its original listing price, while competitor Knowledge Atlas JSC Ltd. ended 4.7% higher. The market will be closed until Thursday. As investors across the region begin to reevaluate their bets on its artificial-intelligence-driven rally, traders in Japan cashed in gains driven by expectations of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s proactive spending policies last week.Trading in Singapore ended early Monday and will be shut until Wednesday. Equity markets in mainland China, South Korea, Indonesia and Vietnam were closed.
In FX, the yen is the notable mover in currencies, weakening 0.5% against the dollar and pushing USD/JPY back above 153. The offshore yuan is one of the better performers against the greenback. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.1%.
There is no cash trading in Treasuries due to the Presidents’ Day holiday. European government bonds are little changed
In commdities, gold dipped below $5,000 an ounce, as traders booked profits from a gain in the previous session. Bitcoin tried anf ailed to stage a modest rebound; it last traded around $68,275 after posting its fourth consecutive weekly loss, with the cryptocurrency struggling to find clear direction as a weekend rally fizzled once the momentum ignition algos emerged. WTI crude futures tread water near $62.90 a barrel.
Top Headlines
President Trump said there will be voter ID rules in the mid-term elections this year, whether Congress approves it or not, and they will present a legal argument in an Executive Order. Furthermore, Trump said he has searched the depths of legal arguments not yet articulated nor vetted on this subject, and they will be presenting an irrefutable one in the very near future.
Iran says potential energy, mining and aircraft deals on table in talks with US: RTRS
Pentagon threatened to cut its ties with Anthropic over the company’s insistence that some limitations are kept on how the military uses its AI models: RTRS
UK eyes rapid ban on social media for under 16s, curbs to AI chatbots: RTRS
Rampant AI Demand for Memory Is Fueling a Growing Chip Crisis: BBG
Warner Bros. Weighs Reopening Sale Negotiations With Paramount: BBG
Companies Are Replacing CEOs in Record Numbers—and They’re Getting Younger: WSJ
Europe aims to rely less on US defence after Trump's Greenland push: RTRS
DOJ Tells Lawmakers Epstein File Redactions Complied With LawL BBG
For College Applicants, Pressure to Make Summers Count Has Gotten Even Worse: WSJ
Fed's Goolsbee (2027 voter) said on Friday that they are still seeing pretty high services inflation, and he hopes they have seen the peak impact of tariffs, while he added that the job market has been steady, with only modest cooling.
The Break Is Over. Companies Are Jacking Up Prices Again: WSJ
Trade/Tariffs
USTR Greer said the US and Ecuador expect to sign a trade agreement in the coming weeks.
China will waive import value-added taxes on selected seeds, genetic resources, and police dogs through to 2030 to increase agricultural competitiveness and breeding capacity. It was also reported that China will grant zero-tariff access to 53 African nations from May 1st, according to Bloomberg.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his French and German counterparts that China and the EU are partners, not rivals, while he added that China and the EU should manage differences, deepen practical cooperation and work together on global challenges.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks began the week in the green but with gains limited following a lack of major fresh catalysts from over the weekend and amid thinned conditions owing to holiday closures in the region and North America. ASX 200 traded marginally higher with upside led by tech, although gains are capped by underperformance in the utilities, mining, materials and resources sectors, while participants also digested a slew of earnings releases. Nikkei 225 traded indecisively with the index constrained by disappointing Japanese preliminary Q4 GDP data, which showed the economy returned to growth but failed to meet expectations with GDP Q/Q at 0.1% (exp. 0.4%), and annualised GDP at 0.2% (exp. 1.6%). Hang Seng finished higher in a shortened trading session on Chinese New Year's Eve but with upside limited by tech weakness amid some confusion after the Pentagon added several companies including Baidu, Cosco, BYD, Huawei, Nio, SMIC, Tencent, and more to a list of Chinese firms aiding the military on Friday, but then withdrew the updated list shortly after it was posted. Furthermore, price action was also restricted by the closure of mainland markets and the absence of stock connect flows, which will remain shut for more than a week. US equity futures kept afloat in quiet trade amid the absence of drivers and participants. European equity futures indicate a mildly positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.1% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.4% on Friday.
Asian Headlines
Chinese President Xi called for the anchoring of economic growth around domestic demand as its main driver, in a speech during a key policy meeting late last year that was released on Sunday.
China is to establish a permanent financial support framework to promote rural revitalisation and prevent a slide back into poverty, which represents a shift from transitional aid to long-term support.
China’s market regulator summoned major online platform companies on Friday, including Alibaba, Douyin and Meituan, while it directed them to comply with laws and regulations, and rein in promotional practices, according to Bloomberg.
US Secretary of State Rubio and Japanese Foreign Minister Motegi reaffirmed their commitment to deepen bilateral ties.
Disney (DIS) sent a ‘cease and desist’ letter to ByteDance over Seedance 2.0 and alleged that ByteDance has been infringing on its IP to train and develop an AI video generation model without compensation, according to Axios. It was later reported that ByteDance said it would curb its AI video app following Disney's legal threats, according to the BBC.
RBI tightened rules for loans provided to brokers and proprietary firms in an effort to reduce market speculation
FX
DXY eked slight gains in rangebound trade after a lack of major catalysts and with US participants away on Monday.
EUR/USD was little changed amid the absence of any major macro catalysts and with light newsflow from the bloc, while comments from ECB President Lagarde and news that the ECB is to make its repo backstop available to other central banks across the world, did little to spur price action.
GBP/USD held on to most of Friday's spoils but with price action contained by resistance around 1.3650 and following comments from BoE's Mann that the UK economy is sluggish and tepid, with consumers spending less due to being scarred by high inflation.
USD/JPY edged higher and returned to above the 153.00 level in the aftermath of the weaker-than-expected preliminary Q4 GDP data for Japan.
Antipodeans were mixed with little fresh macro drivers and a lack of tier-1 data from either side of the Tasman.
Fixed Income
10yr UST futures traded little changed and held on to last week's spoils after returning above the 113.00 level in the aftermath of the softer US inflation data, while price action was contained to start the week by the closure of US cash markets for Washington's Birthday.
Bund futures lacked demand in the absence of any major catalysts and with light newsflow from the bloc.
10yr JGB futures were marginally higher following disappointing preliminary GDP data for Q4, but with gains limited after failing to sustain a brief reclaim of the 132.00 level.
Commodities
Crude futures were rangebound amid light energy-specific newsflow from over the weekend and after last Friday's indecisive performance, where attention was on a source report that noted OPEC+ is leaning towards resuming oil output hikes from April, but with no decision made.
Slovak PM Fico said he has information that the Druzhba pipeline has been fixed after damage in Ukraine, although he believes that supplies to Hungary and Slovakia have become a part of political blackmail.
Spot gold took a breather after edging higher in the aftermath of the recent softer-than-expected US inflation data, with price action also contained by the holiday closures across Asia and North America.
Copper futures were subdued, with their largest buyer away for more than a week due to the Chinese New Year/Spring Festival holiday.
Texas venture-backed startup Hertha Metal vowed mass production of steel with 25% cost savings, which could reduce US reliance on imports.
Geopolitics: Middle East
US military is preparing for potential operations against Iran that could last for weeks if US President Trump orders an attack and the US fully expects Iran to retaliate, according to sources cited by Reuters.
US President Trump told Israeli PM Netanyahu during a meeting in December that he would support Israel striking Iran’s ballistic missile program if the US and Iran are not able to reach a deal, according to CBS.
Iran confirmed that indirect talks between the US and Iran will resume in Geneva on Tuesday under the mediation of Oman, while Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi left for Geneva on Sunday.
Iranian diplomat said Iran is open to nuclear deal compromises if the US discusses lifting sanctions, while it was also reported that Iran said potential energy, mining and aircraft deals are on the table in talks with the US.
Israel’s cabinet approved the proposal to register West Bank lands as ‘state property’, while Palestinians condemned the ‘de facto annexation’ which Peace Now said likely amounts to a ‘mega land grab’.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
US President Trump said on Friday that Ukrainian President Zelensky is going to have to get moving and that Russia wants to get a deal.
US Secretary of State Rubio said they don’t know if Russia is serious about finding an end to the war in Ukraine and will continue to test it, while it was reported that he met with Ukrainian President Zelensky on security and deepening defence and economic partnerships.
Ukrainian drones targeted Russia’s Taman seaport and fuel tanks in the Black Sea region.
UK and European allies were reported on Friday to be weighing seizing Russian shadow fleet ships and tightening curbs on Russia's economy.
French Foreign Minister Barrot said some G7 nations have expressed a willingness to proceed with a maritime services ban on Russian oil, which they hope to include in the 20th sanctions package that they are actively preparing.
Geopolitics: Other
European Commission President von der Leyen said that they face the very distinct threat of outside forces trying to weaken their union, while she added that mutual defence is not an optional task for the European Union; it is an obligation within their own treaty, and it is their collective commitment to stand by each other in case of aggression.
Pentagon said the US military struck an alleged drug cartel boat in the Caribbean, which killed three people.
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnigt wrap
I hope you all had a good weekend. To stay in Winter Olympics mood the family watched "Cool Runnings" last night. I haven't seen it for 32 years. Please don't tell anyone but I had a few tears in my eyes at the end. I blamed it on the hay fever that has now started.
There will be a lot of tears out there in markets for other reasons at the moment. Just two weeks ago, the idea of AI-driven disruption still felt like an abstract, almost academic thought experiment—something we could safely revisit once we had clearer evidence of how AI would be deployed and integrated across the economy. Fast forward 14 days, and markets have wiped out well over a trillion dollars of global equity value on the fear that AI could fundamentally reshape business models and compress profitability across a wide range of industries, including software, legal services, IT consulting, wealth management, logistics, insurance, real estate brokerage and commercial real estate.
Some of the sell off in “old economy” sectors feels overdone to me. But as I argued in our 2026 World Outlook back in November, the real challenge is that even by the end of this year we still won’t have enough evidence to identify the structural winners and losers with confidence. That leaves plenty of room for investors’ imaginations—both optimistic and pessimistic—to run wild. As such big sentiment swings will continue to be the order of the day.
My instinct is that the reaction in things like commercial real estate, for example, has been particularly exaggerated. Markets seem to be extrapolating a scenario in which vast numbers of white collar workers are made redundant almost overnight, leading to a dramatic collapse in office demand. If that view turns out to be correct, we’ll be facing societal challenges far larger than anything currently being priced into equities. While trying to catch a falling knife may be too risky for many, beginning to cushion the descent could be sensible in many old economy sectors. Markets can’t sustain a disruption narrative across multiple sectors for months or quarters without concrete evidence — and that evidence is likely to take much longer to emerge. Fascinating times.
As for this week, today is a US holiday but inflation will remain in the spotlight at a global level after Friday's slightly softer US CPI which helped contribute to a decent rates rally to end the week. Prints are due in the US (PCE - Friday), the UK (Wednesday), Canada (Tuesday) and Japan (Friday). Other economic highlights will include the FOMC minutes (Wednesday), Q4 GDP in the US (Friday), as well as the global flash PMIs (Friday). Earnings reports will feature Walmart (Thursday), Nestlé (Thursday) and BHP (today). It's the earnings calm before next week's Nvidia storm.
In the US, this holiday shortened week (President's Day today) features a data calendar dominated by releases that were pushed back by last year’s government shutdown. The most consequential updates will land on Friday, when the advance estimate of Q4 GDP arrives alongside December’s personal income and consumption figures—key inputs for shaping expectations for the early part of this year.
For markets assessing the underlying pulse of demand heading into 2026, private final sales to domestic purchasers (PFDP) will carry more weight than the headline GDP print. This indicator—closely monitored by Fed Chair Powell—is expected by our economists to slow to 2.0% from 2.9% in Q3, though risks appear tilted upward. One swing factor: Wednesday’s durable goods report, where modest gains outside of transportation could soften the deceleration. On the consumer front, real PCE growth is expected to cool to 2.5% after two quarters of outsized strength but should still signal ample momentum heading into the new year.
Friday’s income and spending report will also offer the latest reading on core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Our economists expect another 0.4% monthly increase for December, lifting the year over year rate to 2.9%. Updated seasonal factors from last week’s CPI release suggest some mild downward pressure on inflation trends in the second half of 2025. Still, January’s CPI data, although softer than we anticipated, do not translate into equivalent relief for core PCE—in fact, our team currently sees another 0.4% gain for January's release (delayed until March 13th). Depending on the strength of medical services, airfare, and portfolio management components in the upcoming PPI report, a 0.5% monthly rise cannot be ruled out, which would push the year over year rate toward 3.1%. So don't get too excited about the softer CPI last week and the huge rates rally.
Additional releases this week will help clarify whether recent severe winter weather has disrupted factory sector activity. January industrial production, due Wednesday, should benefit from a jump in utility output, while weather effects may weigh on the Empire State Survey tomorrow and the Philadelphia Fed survey on Thursday.
Labor market data will also be in focus, particularly Thursday’s jobless claims, which line up with the survey week for the February employment report. As our economists have pointed out, private nonfarm job gains have averaged 103k over the past three months, slightly above the pace at this point in 2025 and matching the start of 2024. See their latest US employment chartbook here.
This week will also feature a dense lineup of Federal Reserve speakers which you can see alongside all the key global data in the day-by-day week ahead calendar at the end as usual.
Moving away from the US, inflation will also be in focus in Japan (Friday) and Canada (tomorrow). For the former, our Chief Japan Economist sees the January nationwide CPI showing a slowdown in both core CPI inflation ex. fresh food to 2.1% YoY (+2.4% in December) and core-core CPI inflation ex. fresh food and energy to 2.7% (+2.9%). Also important will be the global flash PMIs due on Friday as a health check on global growth. In Europe, the spotlight will be on UK inflation (Wednesday), with labour market data due tomorrow and retail sales on Friday. Our UK economist expects headline CPI inflation to drop to 3.0% YoY (3.4% in December) and core CPI also landing at 3.0% YoY (3.2% YoY). See more in his full preview here. In terms of key rate decisions, the RBNZ are expected to remain on hold on Wednesday.
Finally, the Munich Security Conference wrapped up over the weekend, where key topics included Ukraine, Russia, and the fate of Greenland. And while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s speech was nothing like Vice President JD Vance’s at last year’s conference, which triggered a “wake-up” call for European leaders, Rubio reiterated the administration’s view that Europe needed to leave behind its focus on energy policies, trade and mass migration.
Recapping last week now, the tech volatility that has dogged markets since the start of the month broadened into a far more indiscriminate sell-off. The trough came on Thursday, marked by a sharp drop in software stocks, but the weakness extended well beyond tech. Companies across wealth management, real estate and financials suffered double digit declines, underscoring how widespread the pullback has become. Market breadth confirmed this shift as the equal weighted S&P 500 fell -1.37% on Thursday, though it managed to finish the week up +0.29% (+1.04% on Friday). Ultimately, the sell-off left the major US indices on the back foot: the S&P 500 slipped -1.39% (+0.05% on Friday), the Nasdaq lost -2.10% (-0.22% on Friday), and the Magnificent 7 slid -3.24% (-1.11% on Friday).
Although the AI scare dominated sentiment, a heavy slate of US data also shaped the market narrative. Early in the week, softer prints—including flat December retail sales, a dovish Q4 Employment Cost Index, and slower Q4 growth expectations from the Atlanta Fed—pushed Treasury yields lower across the curve. That picture shifted midweek after a stronger than expected January jobs report, which delivered the largest gain in nonfarm payrolls (+130k vs. +65k expected) since December 2024 and reinforced confidence that the US economy carried solid momentum into 2026. Then on Friday, January CPI came in below expectations, adding another dovish note. Although the data offered mixed signals at times, the overall takeaway was sufficiently dovish for traders to increase the number of expected rate cuts by December 2026 to 63.4bps (+7.7bps on the week). This helped drive the largest weekly drop in the 10 year Treasury yield since August 2025, down -15.8bps (-5.0bps on Friday) to 4.05%. The 2 year yield also moved sharply lower, falling -8.9bps to 3.41% (-4.8bps on Friday), its lowest level since 2022.
European markets, meanwhile, delivered a comparatively resilient performance. The STOXX 600 (+0.09%, -0.13% Friday), DAX (+0.78%, +0.25% Friday) and FTSE 100 (+0.74%, +0.42% Friday) all posted modest gains for the week. European sovereign bonds rallied as well, with the 10 year bund yield dropping -8.7bps—its steepest weekly decline since April 2025. That move was outpaced by gilts, which fell -9.8bps (-3.6bps on Friday) despite a sharp early week sell-off triggered by renewed questions surrounding Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s position.
Elsewhere, performance was mixed. Brent crude edged down -0.44% (+0.34% on Friday), while gold extended its upward run, rising +1.56% (+2.43% on Friday).
Will London’s half term week finally give us a quiet week in 2026? You’d probably have to guess at ‘unlikely’.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 02/16/2026 - 09:40
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