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Window Closing On Iran Diplomacy: IAEA's Grossi Issues Pessimistic Outlook
Worldzerohedge11d ago

Window Closing On Iran Diplomacy: IAEA's Grossi Issues Pessimistic Outlook

Window Closing On Iran Diplomacy: IAEA's Grossi Issues Pessimistic Outlook Oil prices climbed early Thursday as markets zeroed in on the prospect of US action against Iran, lifting energy shares alongside crude - with West Texas Intermediate above $66 a barrel. The US military build-up in the Middle East means Iran's window to reach a diplomatic agreement over its atomic activities - which Tehran insists is for peaceful domestic energy purposes - is at risk of closing fast, according to the head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog speaking to Bloomberg Television.  At this moment the Trump-assembled armada threatening Iran includes two aircraft carriers, a dozen warships, hundreds of jets, and advanced air defenses. Over 150 US military cargo flights have delivered weapons to the Middle East this month, with a surge of aircraft still headed to the region. Some say the build-up is already nearing Iraq war levels. Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi underscored the clock is ticking. "There is not much time but we are working on something concrete," said Grossi, in reference to meetings in Geneva with Iranian diplomats. "There are a couple of solutions the IAEA has proposed. IAEA inspectors haven't verified the state of Iran's stockpile of near-bomb-grade uranium or assessed the scope of damage dealt to enrichment facilities for more than eight months. Ironically enough, it was the unprovoked surprise Israeli and US attacks which shut the door on such inspections, also after the White House itself insisted on several occasions that the Islamic Republic's nuclear program was "obliterated" in the series of US bunker-buster bomb attacks on Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. Which is it? Bloomberg and various analysts have speculated that before the Israeli attacks in June, Iran had enough highly-enriched material to quickly craft about a dozen warheads, assuming the scenario Tehran issued the order to weaponize its nuclear program. Grossi said he also met with Trump’s envoys on Tuesday in Geneva, alongside the IAEA's some six hours of meetings with Iranian diplomats. He asserted that an IAEA return to the damaged facilities in Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz "hinges on the possibility of a wider type of agreement." "We are conscious of the fact that there is this political negotiation," Grossi added. However, the Iranians are likely going to remain deeply distrustful of the UN watchdog and Grossi himself, given that the surprise June attack resulted in Iranian officials accusing the IAEA team of leaking sensitive data on Iranian facilities to Israel. This is perhaps why Grossi himself appears pessimistic when commenting on the potential the forge a new deal before US military action ensues.  "There cannot be a deal if the IAEA isn’t able to verify," said Grossi, who described to Bloomberg he's seeking a solution by threading the red lines set by both sides. "It’s not impossible," he said. "There are certain things that Iran understands cannot be pursued. We have to provide the watertight verification there is no deviation." Some reports say a US attack on Iran could come as early as this weekend... Major US naval, air buildup in the Middle East sets stage for potential Iran war. CNN and CBS reported Wednesday that the US military will be ready to launch strikes against Iran as early as this weekend, though Trump has reportedly not made a final decision yet… pic.twitter.com/cRJOwP2PY8 February 19, 2026 As the second US carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, is about to enter the Mediterranean while headed toward the CENTCOM area of responsibility, regional analyst Levent Kemal observes, "The US military buildup in the Middle East is going beyond dialogue or gunboat diplomacy. This is clearly an important preparation for a war aimed at removing the Iranian regime from the regional power balance equation." Tyler Durden Thu, 02/19/2026 - 09:15

Iran's Natanz n-site hit: Tehran vows to rebuild facility; IAEA flags radiation risk
WorldberlingskeTimes of India10h ago2 sources

Iran's Natanz n-site hit: Tehran vows to rebuild facility; IAEA flags radiation risk

Iran's Natanz nuclear facility was reportedly targeted in recent US and Israeli military operations, according to Tehran's UN envoy. President Pezeshkian vowed to rebuild, asserting Iran's nuclear program is for civilian use, not weapons. IAEA chief Grossi expressed grave concern over potential radiological releases, urging restraint amid escalating regional tensions.

"Hubris Generally Precedes Clusterf**k": Does It Smell Like Victory?
Politicszerohedge9d ago

"Hubris Generally Precedes Clusterf**k": Does It Smell Like Victory?

"Hubris Generally Precedes Clusterf**k": Does It Smell Like Victory? Authored by James Howard Kunstler, The message seems to be something like the USA isn’t messing around with all those strike forces in the waters around Iran. The Islamic Republic suddenly looks like Rock-and-Hard-Place-Land. Everybody and his uncle are trying to figure out the calculus in play, World War Three or a happy ending? You’re seeing the most significant US military build-up over there in memory. Smells a little bit like first Gulf War, 1991 — minus all those allies we roped in then. Mr. Trump (via Marco Rubio) has read Euroland out on this one. We are in a cold war with those birds, in case you haven’t noticed. The UK, France, Germany & Co.? They are as crazy as the ladies of The View and their millions of Cluster-B followers. Euroland is yet in thrall to the climate nutters, the farm-and-industry-destroyers, the one-worlders, the Jihad-migrationists, the floundering banksters, and the Klaus Schwab wannabes. Euroland seeks to throttle free speech throughout Western Civ and meddle in everyone’s elections. Euroland keeps mouthing off about a war with Russia despite having no military mojo and going broke-ass broke faster than you can say Götterdämmerung. Bottom line: the US is going solo on this one. What is the objective? Ostensibly “a deal” over Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Like, just cut it out, will you, please? By the way, did you know that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei issued a fatwa in 2005 saying production, stockpiling, and use of nuclear weapons was forbidden under Islam. But then deception is allowed in Islam under the doctrine of taqiyya, against the threat of attack from hostile forces, I’m sure you remember Operation Midnight Hammer in June last year when we attacked and supposedly “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear research and development bunkers at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan? They got pretty banged-up, you may be sure, and nobody in Iran denied there was something nukey going on in those installations. Is there a will there to rebuild the whole darn infrastructure of uranium enrichment and so forth? The mullahs are not saying, which means: of course, they intend to continue developing nuclear weapons — and even if that’s a stupid and futile gambit, given recent history, they still have factories churning out plain old long-range ballistic missiles and new drones by the thousands. Let’s face it: the mullahs are hardcore for Jihad and martyrdom. Since being elevated to Supreme Leader in 1989, Ayatollah Khamenei has sought relentlessly to transform the traditional Islamic concept of Jihad and establish it as the central pillar of the regime’s ideology. Are we doing Israel’s bidding there? (Cue: roar of affirmation.) But then, Israel has a point. Iran has been cuckoo for going on forty years. If Israel wasn’t a target of the mullahs’ eternal Shia wrath, there are their other enemies, the Sunni, on the west side of the Persian Gulf (and next door in Iraq). And consider, too, Iran’s obdurate sponsorship of Jihad, wherever possible, both within and outside the Ummah — including especially Western Civ, where low-grade Jihad has been going on for over a decade. . . mass murders, rape gangs, beheadings, trucks through the Christmas markets. . . . Okay, if Euroland is out, what about the other big dogs, Russia and China. Will they just stand by and let the US have its wicked way with Iran? Russia sent a corvette-class naval vessel down to the Straits of Hormuz for a joint operation with Iran’s navy, but what does that mean? Probably not much more than occupational therapy. Besides, Mr. Trump is just now promising to bring Russia “out from the cold” of all those onerous economic sanctions. . . to begin the process of normalizing relations. You might doubt that Russia wants to blow that for Iran’s sake. And, while it is somewhat out of the news due to the Epstein stink-bomb, and the deepness of mid-winter, there is still a war going on over in Ukraine. Which is to say, the Russians have their hands full in their own back-yard and might, perhaps, be hesitant about piling-on in Iran. And, let’s just suppose that the US objective is actually regime change in Iran. Would Russia be indisposed if the mullahs got kicked out of power? I doubt it. Russia has longstanding annoying issues with Islamic factions distributed throughout their adjoining former Soviet republics. Russia does not need Jihad. Russia might actually live more comfortably with Iran under a secular government, tilting a bit more western in temperament. Just sayin’. . . . China has more urgent concerns with Iran. China gets around 13-percent of its oil imports from Iran, and it enjoys a three to four percent discount on it. Regime change or war that could damage Iran’s oil terminals would be bad news for China. But then, China is at a long geographic remove from Iran, and China is not used to conducting military adventures so far from home, so don’t expect much assistance there. China’s other option would be to start a kerfuffle over Taiwan to distract and divert the US. We’ll just have to see about that. Uncle Xi Jinping has been busy lately sacking the upper echelons of his own military leadership. Are they even ready for action? Plus, China’s economy is wobbly. Consider also: has the US given China assurances of continued oil imports from Iran if it steers clear of the situation there? What are we operationally capable of over in Iran with all our warships, fighter jets, and other stuff? I don’t know. . . and neither do you. Looks impressive, but a couple of Sunburn-type missiles landing on the USS Abraham Lincoln could produce a profound instant attitude adjustment. Perhaps President Trump, WarSec Hegseth, and StateSec Rubio have more refined plans for disarming Iran and surgically removing the cuckoo-birds in charge. Our guys are certainly acting confident. But then in geopolitics confidence is best friends with hubris. And hubris generally precedes clusterfuck. The art of the deal is not for sissies. Tyler Durden Fri, 02/20/2026 - 16:20