British businesses experienced a second consecutive month of rebound in early 2026, reaching a two-year high in growth. However, jobs in the services sector are being sharply cut, partly attributed to higher taxes imposed by the Labour government, according to an S&P Global UK survey.

The Invesco Financial Preferred ETF has declared a monthly distribution of $0.0644.

The S&P 500 has been trading in an unusually tight range for nearly four months, repeatedly failing to sustain upside momentum, leading to questions about the resilience or exhaustion of the current bull market.

Posco Future M has been named to S&P Global’s 2026 Sustainability Yearbook for the third consecutive year, acknowledging its strong environmental, social, and governance performance.

An analysis highlights a specific automotive stock, not Tesla or Ford, that is projected to outperform the S&P 500 over the next five years.

A recent earnings scorecard reveals that 33 out of 52 S&P 500 companies have posted earnings per share (EPS) growth in the latest reporting week, indicating positive financial performance across a significant portion of the index.

An article calculates the potential returns of a $5,000 investment in the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF made 15 years ago.

The stock market has achieved a rare milestone not seen in nearly a year, with historical data suggesting a potential correction, and the S&P 500 possibly dropping further in 2026.

A prediction market has issued a warning for a potential stock market correction, with historical trends suggesting the S&P 500 could drop further by 2026.

An update on the S&P 500 sector performance at 12:01 p.m. EST provides a snapshot of market activity.

Jim Cramer highlights the top 10 things to watch in the stock market on Friday, including a weaker-than-expected Q4 GDP report and 'canary in the coal mine' calls on Blue Owl Capital.

According to S&P Global, the growth of business activity in the United States experienced a slowdown in February.

Bloomberg/Getty Images Blue Owl Capital failed to secure financing for a $4 billion data center project in Pennsylvania. One lender said the lack of interest was due to CoreWeave's creditworthiness. AI data center investments face financing challenges due to concerns about credit risk. Blue Owl Capital, a leading investor in the data center boom, was unable to arrange financing for a $4 billion data center it is co-developing in Pennsylvania after pitching lenders to help bankroll the project in recent months. The facility, 80 miles west of Philadelphia in the city of Lancaster, will be occupied by CoreWeave, a provider of artificial intelligence cloud computing services that has become a closely watched name in the AI race for its rapid expansion — and the billions of dollars of high-interest-rate debt it has taken on to fuel that growth. An executive who arranges debt for major data center deals told Business Insider that the lack of interest in the Lancaster project was due to growing caution among lenders and investors about taking on sizable exposures to AI players with less-than-sterling credit. CoreWeave has a below-investment-grade rating of B+, according to S&P Global Ratings. "We saw it. We passed," a senior executive at a large specialty lender told Business Insider. The financing executive and the lender did not want to be identified because they were speaking about an industry name they may seek to do business with. A spokesman for Blue Owl said that the company had "considered" third-party financing for the Lancaster project "as we would with any transaction as we explore alternatives before choosing the most attractive path forward." The spokesman added that the project, which he said is already under construction, "is fully funded, on time, and on budget." It is unclear whether Blue Owl has been funding construction entirely from its own capital. If Blue Owl is unable to raise debt for the Lancaster development, it could be on the hook for a potentially huge outlay of cash to pay for the data center's construction. The situation shows the complications and risks involved in financing the massive buildout of infrastructure for AI computing. Brennan Hawken, an equity analyst at BMO Capital Markets who covers Blue Owl, said that difficulties to raise debt for the Lancaster project would raise concern. "I'm not familiar with this deal, but if there is a struggle to find the debt financing, that's a bit of a red flag that I would want to drill into," Hawken said. Business Insider previously reported that major banks had recent difficulty selling off pieces of $38 billion of debt to finance the construction of two data center campuses that will be anchored by Oracle. Banks often sell pieces of such large commitments to other lenders to spread risk and also reap a quick profit. The slowdown in interest in participating in that financing was due to worries about Oracle's enormous AI spending and whether the tech company's credit rating could be impacted by those outlays. Oracle has since sought to calm the lending market, announcing that it would raise up to $50 billion of cash from stock and bond offerings in order to "maintain a solid investment-grade balance sheet." One of the boom's most creative financiers Last summer, CoreWeave announced it would lease 100 megawatts of initial capacity at the Lancaster data center and potentially expand its commitment to 300 megawatts. The company said it would pour up to $6 billion into the project to equip it with chips and other cloud infrastructure. A month later, in August, Chirisa Technology Parks announced it would partner with Blue Owl and Machine Investment Group to develop the project. The partnership said it would provide $4 billion of funding, an amount separate from CoreWeave's investment, to support the construction of the project's data center facilities. In the fall, Blue Owl began shopping the development to potential lenders, a person familiar with that effort said. Blue Owl has been one of the most creative financial architects of the data center building boom. Last year, it structured a deal to partner with Meta in the ownership of a large data center campus that Meta will build and operate in Louisiana. Blue Owl utilized Meta's strong credit to raise $27.3 billion of investment-grade corporate bonds against its share of the project's equity, proceeds that will be used to help pay for construction, according to S&P. Blue Owl could arrange a similar type of vehicle that could attempt to tap the credit of an investment-grade customer of CoreWeave's who might use the Lancaster facility or Nvidia, the chipmaker that has purchased large stakes in CoreWeave. It could also potentially raise cash for construction debt by tapping large institutional investor clients to pool together a loan, Hawken said. Much of the development of hyperscale data center campuses has sought to utilize the strong credit ratings and deep pockets of big-tech partners. Fluidstack, a peer of CoreWeave's, announced a deal last year to lease a 168-megawatt data center in Colorado City, Texas, which will be built by the crypto mining firm Cipher. Google, Fluidstack's tenant for the project, said it would guarantee about half of the $3 billion due under the 10-year lease. Fluidstack signed another similar-sized lease in December with the data center builder TeraWulf that will also provide "investment-grade credit support." Read the original article on Business Insider

The S&P 500 is experiencing a significant and historic transformation that is expected to reshape the overall stock market.

Goldman Sachs's Ben Snider suggests that the heavy weighting of technology stocks is becoming a significant headwind for the S&P 500 index.

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S&P Global, Nasdaq, and Moody's are highlighted as attractive investment opportunities due to strong market positions, secular tailwinds, and demand for ratings and mergers.

Calm Market Waters Hide Fierce Undercurrents Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, The price movement in the broad S&P 500 index is relatively calm. Yet the market’s undercurrent, as measured by sharply diverging returns across stock sectors and factors, is anything but calm. The current market picture we paint is well embodied by a quote from Jules Verne in 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea. “The sea was perfectly calm; scarcely a ripple disturbed its surface. But beneath this tranquil exterior, powerful currents were flowing with irresistible force.” Given this divergence between the calm market surface and the volatility of its underlying stocks’ returns, let’s get a better grip on the market’s undercurrent and decipher what it may be trying to tell us. A Calm Market The graph below shows that the S&P 500’s upward trend has recently flattened into a tight range with minimal volatility. Such consolidation is common after a sharp upward price trend, as the market experienced since early April.  The next graph shows the average true range (ATR) for the index. ATR is a measure of realized volatility. As we define it, ATR is the percentage difference between the highest and lowest intraday prices over a rolling 20-day period. The current ATR is only about 3%, near the bottom of the range since 2015. It is also less than half the ten-year average. Both charts point to a relatively calm market with limited volatility. It’s worth noting that implied volatility (expected volatility) on the S&P 500 is around 20. While not low, it doesn’t suggest that investors expect significant volatility in the weeks ahead. The Markets Undercurrent While the broad S&P 500 market index is relatively calm, its undercurrent is anything but tranquil. Significant rotation trades, characterized by heavy trading activity in and out of various sectors and factors, have led to large daily divergences in the performance of certain sectors and stock factors. We use the dispersion of returns to quantify the market’s fierce undercurrent. For this article, we take the 20-day percentage price changes for sector and factor groups and then calculate the standard deviation of those changes. The more divergent the returns, the higher the standard deviation. The first graph below shows that the current standard deviation of returns across all sectors is at its second-highest level since early 2023. The following graph uses factors such as growth and value, market cap, and momentum. It also shows that returns among various factors are highly dispersed. Next, we share a graph, courtesy of Nomura, that delves deeper into the recent dispersion. It compares the average move for all S&P 500 stocks over the last 20 days to that of the S&P 500 index.  As the graph shows, the relative volatility of individual stock returns versus the market is now at levels last seen during the financial crisis and the dotcom crash.   Cross-Sector Correlation To further quantify the market’s strong undercurrent, we examine the correlation of returns among the S&P 500 sectors.  The first table shows the correlation between the weekly returns thus far this year. The second table is for 2025. In 2026, the average correlation among all sectors is a mere 0.066, compared to the statistically significant 0.517 in 2025. Moreover, the standard deviation of the correlations is much greater this year than last year. This, as with the graphs above, further indicates that the various sectors are currently showing a large divergence in weekly returns compared to last year. We also ran the average correlation from 2019 through 2025, including the tumultuous pandemic sell-off and sharp recovery, and arrived at an average correlation of .68 and a standard deviation of .175. Our Takeaway The market’s surface may look calm, but beneath it, passive investors are actively shifting between narratives, valuations, and risk exposures. This reflects changing sentiment among investors about economic growth, inflation, monetary and fiscal policy, and the current political leadership. Historically, periods of elevated sector dispersion tend to occur during market transitions rather than steadily trending bull or bear markets. However, high dispersion after a long bullish trend is not automatically bearish. It may just represent the market searching for its next regime rather than distress. Furthermore, as we shared, high sector and factor dispersion is occurring alongside low cross-sector correlations. Typically, correlations between stocks are high during periods of crisis. As the old saying goes, “correlations go to one during a crisis.” Therefore, if correlations begin to rise and the market heads lower, the recent bout of high dispersion may not be a lasting shift in investor preferences but an omen of a downward trend.  Summary Periods of high return dispersion are an opportunity for investors. As return performance gaps widen and valuation spreads develop, the ability to quantify the current rotation regime and anticipate the next one can deliver outperformance relative to the broader index. While the calm market undercurrent is fierce, it is in and of itself not of great concern. But, as we noted earlier, if we start to see returns among sectors and factors become more aligned, especially downwardly, our concern will heighten. Tyler Durden Wed, 02/18/2026 - 14:15

Over 50% of S&P 500 tech stocks have fallen below their 200-day moving average, signaling a hidden breakdown in the sector.

Analysis focuses on whether current support levels can halt the decline of the S&P 500.

Stock market futures for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq are climbing, with investor attention on AI disruption and the upcoming release of Federal Reserve minutes. Tech stocks are regaining momentum, contributing to the positive outlook.

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Futures, Global Markets Rise With US Markets Closed For President's Day Stocks gained, bitcoin tumbled and bonds steadied after Friday's cool CPI data reinforced expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates on multiple occasions this year. With US markets closed for the Presidents’ Day holiday and mainland China’s markets closed for Lunar New Year holidays, trading was muted on Monday. As of 9:00am ET, futures on the S&P 500 added 0.4% and Europe’s Stoxx 600 index rose 0.4% as banking shares rebounded from a sharp decline last week. German bunds and Treasury futures were steady after US yields touched the lowest since December on Friday. The path of US interest rates remains in focus following Friday’s slower-than-expected US inflation print as traders fully price a Fed cut in July and the strong chance of a move in June.   “The backdrop for equities is positive post CPI,” said Andrea Gabellone, head of global equities at KBC Securities. At the same time, there could be “more dispersion ahead as sentiment around key AI-exposed sectors is still very critical,” he added.  That sentiment was echoed by other strategists seeking to distinguish between AI losers and winners. A JPMorgan Chase & Co. team led by Mislav Matejka urged caution on stocks at risk of AI-driven “cannibalization,” including software, business services and media companies. Meanwhile, banks are developing baskets to capitalize on the divergence: as we first reported last Thursday, Goldman launched a new basket of software stocks that goes long firms that will benefit from AI adoption, while shorting the companies whose workflows could be replaced. With AI disruption rippling through markets, a lot will come down to earnings resilience, in particular in the US.  “When you look at the current earnings season, the companies are showing 13% of growth,” Nataliia Lipikhina, head of EMEA equity strategy at JPMorgan, told Bloomberg TV. “Overall, this is the reason why we continue to be positive on the S&P.” Later this week, traders will be watching for ADP private payrolls numbers on Tuesday and the minutes from the Fed’s January meeting on Wednesday for a fresh read on the economy. European stocks gained with bank shares rebounding, after posting their biggest weekly decline since April on worries about disruption from artificial intelligence. The basic resources sector lags, with Norsk Hydro among Europe’s worst performers as both Goldman Sachs and RBC downgrade the stock. Stoxx 600 rises 0.4% to 620.26 with 253 members down, 336 up, and 11 unchanged. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:  NatWest shares rise as much as 4%, the most since October, as Citi analyst Andrew Coombs raises his price target on the UK bank to a Street-high. Seraphim Space shares rise as much as 9.2%, briefly hitting a new all-time high, after the space tech investment firm said the valuations of its four largest holdings increased over the final months of 2025. AECI shares rally as much as 6.1%, the most since July, after the South African commercial-explosives maker shared improved 2025 headline earnings per share guidance. Orsted shares rise as much as 3.8% after analysts at Kepler raise the recommendation to buy from hold over the Danish renewable energy firm’s outlook, despite ongoing uncertainty for the industry in the US. Norsk Hydro shares fall as much as 4.4%, extending Friday’s 5.9% earnings-triggered drop, after being downgraded at Goldman Sachs and RBC over disappointments and pricing pressures in the Norwegian aluminum company’s downstream business. Galderma shares slip as much as 2.2% after naming Luigi La Corte as its new chief financial officer following the news back in July that Thomas Dittrich was departing. Pinewood Technologies shares tumble as much as 32%, the most since April 2024, after Apax Partners said on Friday it will not proceed with a possible cash offer for the car dealership software provider. FlatexDEGIRO shares drop as much as 7.2% after BNP Paribas downgraded the online brokerage firm to neutral from outperform, saying the price reflects too much optimism about its market position in Germany. Maurel & Prom shares slump as much as 12%, pulling back after ending last week at a 2015-high, after announcing it is not currently authorized to resume oil and gas operations in Venezuela. Barratt Redrow shares fall as much as 3.7%, leading a drop in British homebuilders after Rightmove said house prices are stalling. Asian stocks slipped for a second day, led by declines in Japan as traders booked profits after last week’s post-election rally. Several markets were closed or held shortened trading sessions for the Lunar New Year holiday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was down 0.1%. Japan’s Topix Index fell 0.8%, with Mizuho Financial Group Inc. and Toyota Motor Corp. among the companies contributing to the index’s losses.In Hong Kong, AI model developer Minimax Group Inc. surged as much as 30% to more than four times its original listing price, while competitor Knowledge Atlas JSC Ltd. ended 4.7% higher. The market will be closed until Thursday. As investors across the region begin to reevaluate their bets on its artificial-intelligence-driven rally, traders in Japan cashed in gains driven by expectations of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s proactive spending policies last week.Trading in Singapore ended early Monday and will be shut until Wednesday. Equity markets in mainland China, South Korea, Indonesia and Vietnam were closed.  In FX, the yen is the notable mover in currencies, weakening 0.5% against the dollar and pushing USD/JPY back above 153. The offshore yuan is one of the better performers against the greenback. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.1%. There is no cash trading in Treasuries due to the Presidents’ Day holiday. European government bonds are little changed In commdities, gold dipped below $5,000 an ounce, as traders booked profits from a gain in the previous session. Bitcoin tried anf ailed to stage a modest rebound; it last traded around $68,275 after posting its fourth consecutive weekly loss, with the cryptocurrency struggling to find clear direction as a weekend rally fizzled once the momentum ignition algos emerged.  WTI crude futures tread water near $62.90 a barrel.  Top Headlines President Trump said there will be voter ID rules in the mid-term elections this year, whether Congress approves it or not, and they will present a legal argument in an Executive Order. Furthermore, Trump said he has searched the depths of legal arguments not yet articulated nor vetted on this subject, and they will be presenting an irrefutable one in the very near future. Iran says potential energy, mining and aircraft deals on table in talks with US: RTRS Pentagon threatened to cut its ties with Anthropic over the company’s insistence that some limitations are kept on how the military uses its AI models: RTRS UK eyes rapid ban on social media for under 16s, curbs to AI chatbots: RTRS Rampant AI Demand for Memory Is Fueling a Growing Chip Crisis: BBG Warner Bros. Weighs Reopening Sale Negotiations With Paramount: BBG Companies Are Replacing CEOs in Record Numbers—and They’re Getting Younger: WSJ Europe aims to rely less on US defence after Trump's Greenland push: RTRS DOJ Tells Lawmakers Epstein File Redactions Complied With LawL BBG For College Applicants, Pressure to Make Summers Count Has Gotten Even Worse: WSJ Fed's Goolsbee (2027 voter) said on Friday that they are still seeing pretty high services inflation, and he hopes they have seen the peak impact of tariffs, while he added that the job market has been steady, with only modest cooling.  The Break Is Over. Companies Are Jacking Up Prices Again: WSJ Trade/Tariffs USTR Greer said the US and Ecuador expect to sign a trade agreement in the coming weeks. China will waive import value-added taxes on selected seeds, genetic resources, and police dogs through to 2030 to increase agricultural competitiveness and breeding capacity. It was also reported that China will grant zero-tariff access to 53 African nations from May 1st, according to Bloomberg. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his French and German counterparts that China and the EU are partners, not rivals, while he added that China and the EU should manage differences, deepen practical cooperation and work together on global challenges. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks began the week in the green but with gains limited following a lack of major fresh catalysts from over the weekend and amid thinned conditions owing to holiday closures in the region and North America. ASX 200 traded marginally higher with upside led by tech, although gains are capped by underperformance in the utilities, mining, materials and resources sectors, while participants also digested a slew of earnings releases. Nikkei 225 traded indecisively with the index constrained by disappointing Japanese preliminary Q4 GDP data, which showed the economy returned to growth but failed to meet expectations with GDP Q/Q at 0.1% (exp. 0.4%), and annualised GDP at 0.2% (exp. 1.6%). Hang Seng finished higher in a shortened trading session on Chinese New Year's Eve but with upside limited by tech weakness amid some confusion after the Pentagon added several companies including Baidu, Cosco, BYD, Huawei, Nio, SMIC, Tencent, and more to a list of Chinese firms aiding the military on Friday, but then withdrew the updated list shortly after it was posted. Furthermore, price action was also restricted by the closure of mainland markets and the absence of stock connect flows, which will remain shut for more than a week. US equity futures kept afloat in quiet trade amid the absence of drivers and participants. European equity futures indicate a mildly positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.1% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.4% on Friday. Asian Headlines Chinese President Xi called for the anchoring of economic growth around domestic demand as its main driver, in a speech during a key policy meeting late last year that was released on Sunday. China is to establish a permanent financial support framework to promote rural revitalisation and prevent a slide back into poverty, which represents a shift from transitional aid to long-term support. China’s market regulator summoned major online platform companies on Friday, including Alibaba, Douyin and Meituan, while it directed them to comply with laws and regulations, and rein in promotional practices, according to Bloomberg. US Secretary of State Rubio and Japanese Foreign Minister Motegi reaffirmed their commitment to deepen bilateral ties. Disney (DIS) sent a ‘cease and desist’ letter to ByteDance over Seedance 2.0 and alleged that ByteDance has been infringing on its IP to train and develop an AI video generation model without compensation, according to Axios. It was later reported that ByteDance said it would curb its AI video app following Disney's legal threats, according to the BBC. RBI tightened rules for loans provided to brokers and proprietary firms in an effort to reduce market speculation FX DXY eked slight gains in rangebound trade after a lack of major catalysts and with US participants away on Monday. EUR/USD was little changed amid the absence of any major macro catalysts and with light newsflow from the bloc, while comments from ECB President Lagarde and news that the ECB is to make its repo backstop available to other central banks across the world, did little to spur price action. GBP/USD held on to most of Friday's spoils but with price action contained by resistance around 1.3650 and following comments from BoE's Mann that the UK economy is sluggish and tepid, with consumers spending less due to being scarred by high inflation. USD/JPY edged higher and returned to above the 153.00 level in the aftermath of the weaker-than-expected preliminary Q4 GDP data for Japan. Antipodeans were mixed with little fresh macro drivers and a lack of tier-1 data from either side of the Tasman. Fixed Income 10yr UST futures traded little changed and held on to last week's spoils after returning above the 113.00 level in the aftermath of the softer US inflation data, while price action was contained to start the week by the closure of US cash markets for Washington's Birthday. Bund futures lacked demand in the absence of any major catalysts and with light newsflow from the bloc. 10yr JGB futures were marginally higher following disappointing preliminary GDP data for Q4, but with gains limited after failing to sustain a brief reclaim of the 132.00 level. Commodities Crude futures were rangebound amid light energy-specific newsflow from over the weekend and after last Friday's indecisive performance, where attention was on a source report that noted OPEC+ is leaning towards resuming oil output hikes from April, but with no decision made. Slovak PM Fico said he has information that the Druzhba pipeline has been fixed after damage in Ukraine, although he believes that supplies to Hungary and Slovakia have become a part of political blackmail. Spot gold took a breather after edging higher in the aftermath of the recent softer-than-expected US inflation data, with price action also contained by the holiday closures across Asia and North America. Copper futures were subdued, with their largest buyer away for more than a week due to the Chinese New Year/Spring Festival holiday. Texas venture-backed startup Hertha Metal vowed mass production of steel with 25% cost savings, which could reduce US reliance on imports. Geopolitics: Middle East US military is preparing for potential operations against Iran that could last for weeks if US President Trump orders an attack and the US fully expects Iran to retaliate, according to sources cited by Reuters. US President Trump told Israeli PM Netanyahu during a meeting in December that he would support Israel striking Iran’s ballistic missile program if the US and Iran are not able to reach a deal, according to CBS. Iran confirmed that indirect talks between the US and Iran will resume in Geneva on Tuesday under the mediation of Oman, while Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi left for Geneva on Sunday. Iranian diplomat said Iran is open to nuclear deal compromises if the US discusses lifting sanctions, while it was also reported that Iran said potential energy, mining and aircraft deals are on the table in talks with the US. Israel’s cabinet approved the proposal to register West Bank lands as ‘state property’, while Palestinians condemned the ‘de facto annexation’ which Peace Now said likely amounts to a ‘mega land grab’. Geopolitics: Ukraine US President Trump said on Friday that Ukrainian President Zelensky is going to have to get moving and that Russia wants to get a deal. US Secretary of State Rubio said they don’t know if Russia is serious about finding an end to the war in Ukraine and will continue to test it, while it was reported that he met with Ukrainian President Zelensky on security and deepening defence and economic partnerships. Ukrainian drones targeted Russia’s Taman seaport and fuel tanks in the Black Sea region. UK and European allies were reported on Friday to be weighing seizing Russian shadow fleet ships and tightening curbs on Russia's economy. French Foreign Minister Barrot said some G7 nations have expressed a willingness to proceed with a maritime services ban on Russian oil, which they hope to include in the 20th sanctions package that they are actively preparing. Geopolitics: Other European Commission President von der Leyen said that they face the very distinct threat of outside forces trying to weaken their union, while she added that mutual defence is not an optional task for the European Union; it is an obligation within their own treaty, and it is their collective commitment to stand by each other in case of aggression. Pentagon said the US military struck an alleged drug cartel boat in the Caribbean, which killed three people. DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnigt wrap I hope you all had a good weekend. To stay in Winter Olympics mood the family watched "Cool Runnings" last night. I haven't seen it for 32 years. Please don't tell anyone but I had a few tears in my eyes at the end. I blamed it on the hay fever that has now started. There will be a lot of tears out there in markets for other reasons at the moment. Just two weeks ago, the idea of AI-driven disruption still felt like an abstract, almost academic thought experiment—something we could safely revisit once we had clearer evidence of how AI would be deployed and integrated across the economy. Fast forward 14 days, and markets have wiped out well over a trillion dollars of global equity value on the fear that AI could fundamentally reshape business models and compress profitability across a wide range of industries, including software, legal services, IT consulting, wealth management, logistics, insurance, real estate brokerage and commercial real estate. Some of the sell off in “old economy” sectors feels overdone to me. But as I argued in our 2026 World Outlook back in November, the real challenge is that even by the end of this year we still won’t have enough evidence to identify the structural winners and losers with confidence. That leaves plenty of room for investors’ imaginations—both optimistic and pessimistic—to run wild. As such big sentiment swings will continue to be the order of the day. My instinct is that the reaction in things like commercial real estate, for example, has been particularly exaggerated. Markets seem to be extrapolating a scenario in which vast numbers of white collar workers are made redundant almost overnight, leading to a dramatic collapse in office demand. If that view turns out to be correct, we’ll be facing societal challenges far larger than anything currently being priced into equities. While trying to catch a falling knife may be too risky for many, beginning to cushion the descent could be sensible in many old economy sectors. Markets can’t sustain a disruption narrative across multiple sectors for months or quarters without concrete evidence — and that evidence is likely to take much longer to emerge. Fascinating times. As for this week, today is a US holiday but inflation will remain in the spotlight at a global level after Friday's slightly softer US CPI which helped contribute to a decent rates rally to end the week. Prints are due in the US (PCE - Friday), the UK (Wednesday), Canada (Tuesday) and Japan (Friday). Other economic highlights will include the FOMC minutes (Wednesday), Q4 GDP in the US (Friday), as well as the global flash PMIs (Friday). Earnings reports will feature Walmart (Thursday), Nestlé (Thursday) and BHP (today). It's the earnings calm before next week's Nvidia storm. In the US, this holiday shortened week (President's Day today) features a data calendar dominated by releases that were pushed back by last year’s government shutdown. The most consequential updates will land on Friday, when the advance estimate of Q4 GDP arrives alongside December’s personal income and consumption figures—key inputs for shaping expectations for the early part of this year. For markets assessing the underlying pulse of demand heading into 2026, private final sales to domestic purchasers (PFDP) will carry more weight than the headline GDP print. This indicator—closely monitored by Fed Chair Powell—is expected by our economists to slow to 2.0% from 2.9% in Q3, though risks appear tilted upward. One swing factor: Wednesday’s durable goods report, where modest gains outside of transportation could soften the deceleration. On the consumer front, real PCE growth is expected to cool to 2.5% after two quarters of outsized strength but should still signal ample momentum heading into the new year. Friday’s income and spending report will also offer the latest reading on core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Our economists expect another 0.4% monthly increase for December, lifting the year over year rate to 2.9%. Updated seasonal factors from last week’s CPI release suggest some mild downward pressure on inflation trends in the second half of 2025. Still, January’s CPI data, although softer than we anticipated, do not translate into equivalent relief for core PCE—in fact, our team currently sees another 0.4% gain for January's release (delayed until March 13th). Depending on the strength of medical services, airfare, and portfolio management components in the upcoming PPI report, a 0.5% monthly rise cannot be ruled out, which would push the year over year rate toward 3.1%. So don't get too excited about the softer CPI last week and the huge rates rally. Additional releases this week will help clarify whether recent severe winter weather has disrupted factory sector activity. January industrial production, due Wednesday, should benefit from a jump in utility output, while weather effects may weigh on the Empire State Survey tomorrow and the Philadelphia Fed survey on Thursday. Labor market data will also be in focus, particularly Thursday’s jobless claims, which line up with the survey week for the February employment report. As our economists have pointed out, private nonfarm job gains have averaged 103k over the past three months, slightly above the pace at this point in 2025 and matching the start of 2024. See their latest US employment chartbook here. This week will also feature a dense lineup of Federal Reserve speakers which you can see alongside all the key global data in the day-by-day week ahead calendar at the end as usual. Moving away from the US, inflation will also be in focus in Japan (Friday) and Canada (tomorrow). For the former, our Chief Japan Economist sees the January nationwide CPI showing a slowdown in both core CPI inflation ex. fresh food to 2.1% YoY (+2.4% in December) and core-core CPI inflation ex. fresh food and energy to 2.7% (+2.9%). Also important will be the global flash PMIs due on Friday as a health check on global growth. In Europe, the spotlight will be on UK inflation (Wednesday), with labour market data due tomorrow and retail sales on Friday. Our UK economist expects headline CPI inflation to drop to 3.0% YoY (3.4% in December) and core CPI also landing at 3.0% YoY (3.2% YoY). See more in his full preview here. In terms of key rate decisions, the RBNZ are expected to remain on hold on Wednesday. Finally, the Munich Security Conference wrapped up over the weekend, where key topics included Ukraine, Russia, and the fate of Greenland. And while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s speech was nothing like Vice President JD Vance’s at last year’s conference, which triggered a “wake-up” call for European leaders, Rubio reiterated the administration’s view that Europe needed to leave behind its focus on energy policies, trade and mass migration. Recapping last week now, the tech volatility that has dogged markets since the start of the month broadened into a far more indiscriminate sell-off. The trough came on Thursday, marked by a sharp drop in software stocks, but the weakness extended well beyond tech. Companies across wealth management, real estate and financials suffered double digit declines, underscoring how widespread the pullback has become. Market breadth confirmed this shift as the equal weighted S&P 500 fell -1.37% on Thursday, though it managed to finish the week up +0.29% (+1.04% on Friday). Ultimately, the sell-off left the major US indices on the back foot: the S&P 500 slipped -1.39% (+0.05% on Friday), the Nasdaq lost -2.10% (-0.22% on Friday), and the Magnificent 7 slid -3.24% (-1.11% on Friday). Although the AI scare dominated sentiment, a heavy slate of US data also shaped the market narrative. Early in the week, softer prints—including flat December retail sales, a dovish Q4 Employment Cost Index, and slower Q4 growth expectations from the Atlanta Fed—pushed Treasury yields lower across the curve. That picture shifted midweek after a stronger than expected January jobs report, which delivered the largest gain in nonfarm payrolls (+130k vs. +65k expected) since December 2024 and reinforced confidence that the US economy carried solid momentum into 2026. Then on Friday, January CPI came in below expectations, adding another dovish note. Although the data offered mixed signals at times, the overall takeaway was sufficiently dovish for traders to increase the number of expected rate cuts by December 2026 to 63.4bps (+7.7bps on the week). This helped drive the largest weekly drop in the 10 year Treasury yield since August 2025, down -15.8bps (-5.0bps on Friday) to 4.05%. The 2 year yield also moved sharply lower, falling -8.9bps to 3.41% (-4.8bps on Friday), its lowest level since 2022. European markets, meanwhile, delivered a comparatively resilient performance. The STOXX 600 (+0.09%, -0.13% Friday), DAX (+0.78%, +0.25% Friday) and FTSE 100 (+0.74%, +0.42% Friday) all posted modest gains for the week. European sovereign bonds rallied as well, with the 10 year bund yield dropping -8.7bps—its steepest weekly decline since April 2025. That move was outpaced by gilts, which fell -9.8bps (-3.6bps on Friday) despite a sharp early week sell-off triggered by renewed questions surrounding Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s position. Elsewhere, performance was mixed. Brent crude edged down -0.44% (+0.34% on Friday), while gold extended its upward run, rising +1.56% (+2.43% on Friday). Will London’s half term week finally give us a quiet week in 2026? You’d probably have to guess at ‘unlikely’. Tyler Durden Mon, 02/16/2026 - 09:40

Recent articles delve into whether the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF remains a sound investment choice, prompting investors to reconsider its current appeal.

Investment articles are highlighting specific Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) as smart buys, noting their strong historical gains and potential to outperform market benchmarks like the S&P 500.

Analysts discuss potential market downturns for the S&P 500 in 2026 while also highlighting a record silver rally and a promising ETF.

Upcoming earnings reports from tech giants Nvidia, Salesforce, and Snowflake are anticipated to be crucial for the market this week, potentially influencing the S&P 500 amidst a significant AI reckoning.

A booming AI economy may be very bad for the broader economy, according to Citrini Research

Američko tržište akcija poraslo je protekle nedelje nakon što je dinamična sedmica okončana odlukom Vrhovnog suda da proglasi nezakonitim prošlogodišnje Trampove ukaze o carinama. Indeks S&P 500 poras

Consumer staples are currently leading the S&P 500 as the index approaches record highs, a market trend that historical data suggests rarely ends favorably for investors.

Ruling against Trump’s tariffs creates new uncertainty in US trade relations with China  AP News

Half of the S&P 500 utilities companies surpassed their earnings estimates this week, indicating a strong performance within the sector.

An article illustrates the potential returns of a $5,000 investment in the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF made 15 years ago, providing a hypothetical scenario for investors.

S&P Global Ratings has affirmed Kazakhstan's long-term sovereign credit rating at 'BBB-', maintaining a positive outlook but flagging risks related to oil and export routes.

Savings Rate Tumbles To 4 Year Lows As Fed's Favorite Inflation Indicator Comes In Hot The Fed's favorite inflation indicator - Core PCE (a measure of price changes in consumer goods and services that excludes volatile food and energy costs) - rose 0.4% in December (the latest data released today), slightly hotter than expected (+0.3% MoM). That lifted YoY inflation up 3.0% (above the prior month and hotter than expected) - the highest since April 2025... Source: Bloomberg The headline PCE rose 0.4% MoM (more than expected too) driving prices up 2.9% YoY (the highest since March 2024) Source: Bloomberg The much watched SuperCore PCE rose 0.3% MoM (the last MoM decline was April 2020). But the SuperCore PCE YoY printed +3.3% - very much unmoved in the last year... Services prices continue to dominate the price gains but Goods costs also accelerated in December... Many were fearful of the recent surge in oil prices impacting inflation, but as the chart below shows, the government's measure of energy costs has recently (oddly) decoupled from actual energy costs... Higher prices were accompanied by higher incomes and higher spending... But Spending continues to outpace incomes (even though the former is decelerating)... Wage growth is slowing, especially for government workers... But, putting it altogether, the savings rate is tumbling to afford all this... We look forward to President Trump explaining how affordability is 'fixed' next week at the SOTU. Tyler Durden Fri, 02/20/2026 - 08:47

An article suggests strategies for couples to navigate economic challenges and turn trade policy impacts into financial advantages, emphasizing that economic hurdles can affect relationships.

The UK's private sector experienced an increase in activity during February, according to S&P Global, even as job losses continued.

A report highlights the top and bottom performing stocks on the S&P 500 at midday EST.

Despite a seemingly quiet overall performance for the S&P 500 in 2026, there are substantial individual stock movements occurring beneath the surface, indicating significant shifts within the market.

US equity futures are trading higher as a global 'everything rally' takes hold and concerns about AI disruption diminish.

The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all closed higher after a volatile trading day, with Apple's stock experiencing a significant jump.

Jeremy Grantham suggests that a potentially overheated IPO market, including companies like OpenAI and SpaceX, could pose a significant risk to the S&P 500.

Economist El-Erian forecasts significant volatility for the U.S. economy moving forward.

Universa's Mark Spitznagel forecasts the S&P 500 soaring to 8,000 before an eventual bust, suggesting a volatile market outlook.

European stock indexes remained subdued as broader market sentiment was affected by concerns surrounding artificial intelligence.

A Vanguard ETF is projected to significantly outperform the S&P 500 by 2026, highlighting its strong growth potential.

The S&P 500 continues to face challenges in surpassing the 7,000 mark, reflecting ongoing market volatility.

S&P Global is reportedly facing significant challenges due to the 'SaaS-pocalypse,' leading to questions about whether the data giant's stock is currently a good investment.

Some sectors in the S&P 500 have valuations out of step with their history. That doesn't mean the shakeup will stop soon.

A breakdown of the “Magnificent Seven” and AI hyperscalers raises concern for the stock market and the economy

An article recommends investing in a particular 'winning ETF,' urging readers to consider why they might not be doing so.

S&P Global Ratings has assigned a 'BB-' long-term foreign currency rating to Mongolia's proposed senior unsecured notes.

The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF is identified as a smart investment choice for long-term investors.

The stock market staged a comeback, even as Wall Street waded through a flurry of both upbeat and unsettling headlines.

Four out of six S&P 500 energy stocks surpassed their earnings per share estimates this week, according to an earnings scorecard.

The market trend is shifting away from the traditional cap-weighted S&P 500 index, suggesting a potential rise for the equal-weighted version.

S&P Global Ratings has affirmed Kazakhstan's long-term sovereign credit rating at 'BBB-' with a positive outlook, but highlighted risks related to oil and export routes.

S&P Global has forged a strategic data sharing agreement with Verisk, aiming to enhance data collaboration between the two entities.

According to S&P Global, the growth of business activity in the United States decelerated in February.

S&P 500 futures experienced a downturn following the release of US GDP growth figures that fell short of forecasts, compounded by an increase in geopolitical tensions.

Nvidia's options are currently priced to reflect a perfect earnings outlook, with upcoming earnings reports expected to impact the S&P 500.

The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq experienced declines as oil prices continued to rally due to escalating tensions between Iran and the United States.

US equities, including the S&P 500, rose as concerns over AI eased and economic data confirmed the strength of the American economy.

The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all gained for the third straight day, as traders largely disregarded concerns about AI.

The S&P 500 index saw gains following a period of caution regarding AI stocks, as traders actively search for new winning investments.

Despite a seemingly calm S&P 500, the stock market is experiencing significant underlying turbulence this year.

The XLRE index has underperformed the S&P 500 by 5%, contrary to expectations that lower interest rates would boost the sector.

Multiple iShares ETFs, including those tracking U.S. Treasury Bonds, S&P/TSX Capped Utilities, ESG Aware Canadian Aggregate Bond, Diversified Monthly Income, and Core Canadian Short Term Bond, have declared dividends.

The iShares S&P/TSX Cdn Div Aristocrats Idx ETF-Com has declared a dividend of CAD 0.117.

Stock market futures for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq are sliding, with investor concerns over artificial intelligence impacting market sentiment ahead of a shortened trading week.

An article outlines the most intelligent approach to investing in the S&P 500 during the month of February.

Wall Street analysts suggest buying two specific Vanguard Index Funds as a strategy to beat the S&P 500's performance over the next decade.

Prabowo Fury on Market Rout Shows Growing Divisions in Indonesia  Bloomberg.com

The S&P 500 index concluded the trading day with a modest gain, even as the technology sector experienced a slight decline and signs of cooling inflation emerged.