Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri held productive talks with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Kash Patel in Washington. Discussions focused on strengthening the bilateral partnership, particularly in trade, defense, and critical minerals.
Former US President Donald Trump has declined an invitation to attend the B9 summit scheduled for May 13 in Bucharest, Romania, with sources suggesting that Secretary of State Marco R. might attend on behalf of the US instead.
The Dutch government and House of Representatives have expressed concern over whether Ukraine will receive promised US weapons, but Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha stated that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio assured him the weapons would not be redirected to the Middle East.
The United States has formally resumed operations at its embassy in Caracas, Venezuela, after being closed for seven years, marking a new step in its diplomatic presence and a significant thawing of relations between the two countries, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio hailing progress.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has dismissed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's claims that US security guarantees are tied to Ukraine's withdrawal from Donbas, calling the assertion a 'lie.'
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio testified in the criminal trial of former congressman David Rivera, who is accused of lobbying for Venezuela's Maduro regime, marking the first time in over four decades a sitting cabinet member has testified in a criminal case.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has vehemently denied that American officials encouraged Cubans to overthrow President Miguel Díaz-Canel, labeling a New York Times report on the matter as 'fake news' based on false information.
Wealthy Republican donors in the U.S. have reportedly launched a discreet campaign to support current Secretary of State Marco Rubio as a potential successor to Donald Trump in future presidential elections.
Marrakech – A prominent American think tank has called on President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio to formally recognize Spain’s North African enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla as…
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to visit China with President Donald Trump later this month after appearing to show little interest in previous invitations from Beijing, the South China Morning Post has learned.
According to sources, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to comment publicly on the matter, Rubio had been invited to visit but had not been receptive until recently.
Rubio’s attendance could smooth over some of the problems surrounding...
The Trump administration is reportedly preparing a significant economic deal with Cuba, with President Donald Trump indicating that Cuban officials are already in direct negotiations with him and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio defends Trump's Iran strikes, calling regime "lunatics" as administration targets military sites to prevent nuclear weapons.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio clarified that the United States attacked Iran to protect its own security interests, not 'for Israel,' seemingly walking back earlier comments.
The US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says that the United States is stepping up its campaign in Iran, widening the scope of airstrikes in the country.
Israel reportedly targeted the presidential residence in Tehran, while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the 'hardest blows' against Iran are 'yet to come'. Former President Trump also commented on the conflict, claiming the US has enough weapons for a prolonged war.
The State Department is urging Americans in the Middle East to leave immediately. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s team released a statement warning of “serious safety risks” across the region, and told Americnas to “depart via commercial means.” The warning covered American citizens who are currently in Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, the West […]
The United States attacked Iran only after learning that ally Israel was going to strike and fearing Tehran would retaliate against US forces, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, during a phone call with the foreign ministers of the Group of Seven (G7) countries, informed them about the latest developments in the U.S.
VIDEO - On the X platform, the White House shared photos of the American president, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Vice President JD Vance, following the operations…
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced progress in assembling an international anti-gang force for Haiti, raising hopes for long-delayed elections this year despite ongoing security challenges.
An armed boat attack from Florida has reignited discussions about the potential fall of the Cuban regime, occurring amidst alleged secret negotiations between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Raúl Castro's grandson.
Washington will keep pushing China to join a trilateral nuclear control deal with the US and Russia, but can’t compel it to do so, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, citing “strategic stability” in China-US relations ahead of US President Donald Trump’s visit to China in April, despite long-term “irritants”.
“We think ultimately, in the 21st century, for there to be a true arms control agreement, it has to involve China,” Rubio said during a press conference at a meeting of the Caribbean...
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has stated that 'the old world is gone,' advocating for a major shift in American foreign policy and the rebuilding of international institutions, speaking in Washington and at the Munich Security Conference.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that Iran is attempting to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles and already possesses weapons capable of threatening large parts of Europe.
The US and China have achieved 'stability' in their long-conflicting relationship, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized in statements yesterday, Wednesday 25/2, a few weeks before.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Caribbean leaders on Wednesday that the removal of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro has improved regional stability, despite objections over its legality. Speaking at a summit in St Kitts and Nevis, he urged closer cooperation while tensions persist over Cuba, migration and security.
Following his appearance in Munich, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is travelling to Budapest, a visit that comes just two months ahead of elections in Hungary that could see longtime leader and Tru
NPR's Scott Simon speaks to Fiona Hill, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution's Center on the United States and Europe, about the Trump administration's strategy to end Russia's war with Ukraine.
Ambassador Paolo Zampolli, the US Special Envoy for Global Partnerships, is believed to be the driving force behind the meeting between Romanian President Nicușor Dan and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio earn Trump's acclaim following their Munich Security Conference speeches, with Trump joking about firing Rubio.
Iran said on Monday that the United States’s position on Iran’s nuclear programme “has moved towards a more realistic one”, a day ahead of a second round of US-Iranian talks in Geneva.
Tehran’s foreign minister arrived in Geneva for the new round of indirect negotiations with the US, as the Revolutionary Guards began military drills in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane for oil and gas.
The two sides recently resumed indirect talks, mediated by Oman, after US President Donald Trump repeatedly threatened military action against Iran over a deadly crackdown on protesters last month.
A previous attempt at negotiations collapsed when Israel launched surprise strikes on Iran, beginning a 12-day war that Washington briefly joined to bomb Iranian nuclear sites.
“A cautious assessment is that, from the discussions that have taken place in Muscat to date, at least what we have been told is that the US position on the Iranian nuclear issue has moved towards a more realistic one,” said foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei, the official IRNA news agency reported.
According to Tehran, talks mediated by Oman will be held on Tuesday in Switzerland.
Washington has previously pushed for other topics to be discussed, including Iran’s ballistic missiles and support for armed groups in the region.
The war games being conducted by the Guards, the ideological arm of the military, aim to prepare it for “potential security and military threats” in the Strait, Iranian state TV said.
Iranian politicians have repeatedly threatened to block the strait, a strategic waterway through which about 20 per cent of global oil passes, as both sides ramp up pressure with talks set to resume.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters on Monday, “We’re hopeful there’s a deal”.
“The president always prefers peaceful outcomes and negotiated outcomes to things.”
Meanwhile, Iran’s top diplomat, Abbas Araghchi, wrote on X that he was meeting in Geneva with the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, “for deep technical discussion”.
Grossi later confirmed the meeting on X, calling the conversation with Araghchi “in-depth” ahead of Tuesday’s “important negotiations”.
Protest crackdown
Araghchi is also set to hold talks with his Swiss and Omani counterparts as well as other international officials, Iran’s foreign ministry said.
“I am in Geneva with real ideas to achieve a fair and equitable deal. What is not on the table: submission before threats,” Araghchi added on X.
Washington has dispatched Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, the White House confirmed on Sunday.
The latest talks follow repeated threats from Trump of military action against Tehran, first over Iran’s deadly crackdown on anti-government protests, and then more recently over the country’s nuclear programme.
The West fears the programme is aimed at making a bomb, which Tehran denies.
On Friday, Trump said a change of government in Iran would be the “best thing that could happen”, as he sent a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East to ratchet up military pressure.
His remarks came before demonstrations outside Iran against its authorities swept a number of cities, including in the US, over the weekend.
‘Viable’ deal
Iran’s deputy foreign minister told the BBC that Tehran would consider compromises on its uranium stockpile if Washington lifts sanctions that have crippled the country’s economy.
“If we see the sincerity on their (American) part, I am sure we will be on a road to have an agreement,” said Majid Takht-Ravanchi.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday that any deal must involve the removal of all enriched uranium from Iran as well as Tehran’s ability to enrich more.
The whereabouts of Iran’s stockpile of around 400 kilogrammes of uranium enriched to 60 per cent remains unknown, with inspectors having last seen it in June.
Futures, Global Markets Rise With US Markets Closed For President's Day
Stocks gained, bitcoin tumbled and bonds steadied after Friday's cool CPI data reinforced expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates on multiple occasions this year. With US markets closed for the Presidents’ Day holiday and mainland China’s markets closed for Lunar New Year holidays, trading was muted on Monday. As of 9:00am ET, futures on the S&P 500 added 0.4% and Europe’s Stoxx 600 index rose 0.4% as banking shares rebounded from a sharp decline last week. German bunds and Treasury futures were steady after US yields touched the lowest since December on Friday.
The path of US interest rates remains in focus following Friday’s slower-than-expected US inflation print as traders fully price a Fed cut in July and the strong chance of a move in June.
“The backdrop for equities is positive post CPI,” said Andrea Gabellone, head of global equities at KBC Securities. At the same time, there could be “more dispersion ahead as sentiment around key AI-exposed sectors is still very critical,” he added.
That sentiment was echoed by other strategists seeking to distinguish between AI losers and winners.
A JPMorgan Chase & Co. team led by Mislav Matejka urged caution on stocks at risk of AI-driven “cannibalization,” including software, business services and media companies. Meanwhile, banks are developing baskets to capitalize on the divergence: as we first reported last Thursday, Goldman launched a new basket of software stocks that goes long firms that will benefit from AI adoption, while shorting the companies whose workflows could be replaced.
With AI disruption rippling through markets, a lot will come down to earnings resilience, in particular in the US.
“When you look at the current earnings season, the companies are showing 13% of growth,” Nataliia Lipikhina, head of EMEA equity strategy at JPMorgan, told Bloomberg TV. “Overall, this is the reason why we continue to be positive on the S&P.”
Later this week, traders will be watching for ADP private payrolls numbers on Tuesday and the minutes from the Fed’s January meeting on Wednesday for a fresh read on the economy.
European stocks gained with bank shares rebounding, after posting their biggest weekly decline since April on worries about disruption from artificial intelligence. The basic resources sector lags, with Norsk Hydro among Europe’s worst performers as both Goldman Sachs and RBC downgrade the stock. Stoxx 600 rises 0.4% to 620.26 with 253 members down, 336 up, and 11 unchanged. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:
NatWest shares rise as much as 4%, the most since October, as Citi analyst Andrew Coombs raises his price target on the UK bank to a Street-high.
Seraphim Space shares rise as much as 9.2%, briefly hitting a new all-time high, after the space tech investment firm said the valuations of its four largest holdings increased over the final months of 2025.
AECI shares rally as much as 6.1%, the most since July, after the South African commercial-explosives maker shared improved 2025 headline earnings per share guidance.
Orsted shares rise as much as 3.8% after analysts at Kepler raise the recommendation to buy from hold over the Danish renewable energy firm’s outlook, despite ongoing uncertainty for the industry in the US.
Norsk Hydro shares fall as much as 4.4%, extending Friday’s 5.9% earnings-triggered drop, after being downgraded at Goldman Sachs and RBC over disappointments and pricing pressures in the Norwegian aluminum company’s downstream business.
Galderma shares slip as much as 2.2% after naming Luigi La Corte as its new chief financial officer following the news back in July that Thomas Dittrich was departing.
Pinewood Technologies shares tumble as much as 32%, the most since April 2024, after Apax Partners said on Friday it will not proceed with a possible cash offer for the car dealership software provider.
FlatexDEGIRO shares drop as much as 7.2% after BNP Paribas downgraded the online brokerage firm to neutral from outperform, saying the price reflects too much optimism about its market position in Germany.
Maurel & Prom shares slump as much as 12%, pulling back after ending last week at a 2015-high, after announcing it is not currently authorized to resume oil and gas operations in Venezuela.
Barratt Redrow shares fall as much as 3.7%, leading a drop in British homebuilders after Rightmove said house prices are stalling.
Asian stocks slipped for a second day, led by declines in Japan as traders booked profits after last week’s post-election rally. Several markets were closed or held shortened trading sessions for the Lunar New Year holiday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was down 0.1%. Japan’s Topix Index fell 0.8%, with Mizuho Financial Group Inc. and Toyota Motor Corp. among the companies contributing to the index’s losses.In Hong Kong, AI model developer Minimax Group Inc. surged as much as 30% to more than four times its original listing price, while competitor Knowledge Atlas JSC Ltd. ended 4.7% higher. The market will be closed until Thursday. As investors across the region begin to reevaluate their bets on its artificial-intelligence-driven rally, traders in Japan cashed in gains driven by expectations of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s proactive spending policies last week.Trading in Singapore ended early Monday and will be shut until Wednesday. Equity markets in mainland China, South Korea, Indonesia and Vietnam were closed.
In FX, the yen is the notable mover in currencies, weakening 0.5% against the dollar and pushing USD/JPY back above 153. The offshore yuan is one of the better performers against the greenback. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.1%.
There is no cash trading in Treasuries due to the Presidents’ Day holiday. European government bonds are little changed
In commdities, gold dipped below $5,000 an ounce, as traders booked profits from a gain in the previous session. Bitcoin tried anf ailed to stage a modest rebound; it last traded around $68,275 after posting its fourth consecutive weekly loss, with the cryptocurrency struggling to find clear direction as a weekend rally fizzled once the momentum ignition algos emerged. WTI crude futures tread water near $62.90 a barrel.
Top Headlines
President Trump said there will be voter ID rules in the mid-term elections this year, whether Congress approves it or not, and they will present a legal argument in an Executive Order. Furthermore, Trump said he has searched the depths of legal arguments not yet articulated nor vetted on this subject, and they will be presenting an irrefutable one in the very near future.
Iran says potential energy, mining and aircraft deals on table in talks with US: RTRS
Pentagon threatened to cut its ties with Anthropic over the company’s insistence that some limitations are kept on how the military uses its AI models: RTRS
UK eyes rapid ban on social media for under 16s, curbs to AI chatbots: RTRS
Rampant AI Demand for Memory Is Fueling a Growing Chip Crisis: BBG
Warner Bros. Weighs Reopening Sale Negotiations With Paramount: BBG
Companies Are Replacing CEOs in Record Numbers—and They’re Getting Younger: WSJ
Europe aims to rely less on US defence after Trump's Greenland push: RTRS
DOJ Tells Lawmakers Epstein File Redactions Complied With LawL BBG
For College Applicants, Pressure to Make Summers Count Has Gotten Even Worse: WSJ
Fed's Goolsbee (2027 voter) said on Friday that they are still seeing pretty high services inflation, and he hopes they have seen the peak impact of tariffs, while he added that the job market has been steady, with only modest cooling.
The Break Is Over. Companies Are Jacking Up Prices Again: WSJ
Trade/Tariffs
USTR Greer said the US and Ecuador expect to sign a trade agreement in the coming weeks.
China will waive import value-added taxes on selected seeds, genetic resources, and police dogs through to 2030 to increase agricultural competitiveness and breeding capacity. It was also reported that China will grant zero-tariff access to 53 African nations from May 1st, according to Bloomberg.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his French and German counterparts that China and the EU are partners, not rivals, while he added that China and the EU should manage differences, deepen practical cooperation and work together on global challenges.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks began the week in the green but with gains limited following a lack of major fresh catalysts from over the weekend and amid thinned conditions owing to holiday closures in the region and North America. ASX 200 traded marginally higher with upside led by tech, although gains are capped by underperformance in the utilities, mining, materials and resources sectors, while participants also digested a slew of earnings releases. Nikkei 225 traded indecisively with the index constrained by disappointing Japanese preliminary Q4 GDP data, which showed the economy returned to growth but failed to meet expectations with GDP Q/Q at 0.1% (exp. 0.4%), and annualised GDP at 0.2% (exp. 1.6%). Hang Seng finished higher in a shortened trading session on Chinese New Year's Eve but with upside limited by tech weakness amid some confusion after the Pentagon added several companies including Baidu, Cosco, BYD, Huawei, Nio, SMIC, Tencent, and more to a list of Chinese firms aiding the military on Friday, but then withdrew the updated list shortly after it was posted. Furthermore, price action was also restricted by the closure of mainland markets and the absence of stock connect flows, which will remain shut for more than a week. US equity futures kept afloat in quiet trade amid the absence of drivers and participants. European equity futures indicate a mildly positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.1% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.4% on Friday.
Asian Headlines
Chinese President Xi called for the anchoring of economic growth around domestic demand as its main driver, in a speech during a key policy meeting late last year that was released on Sunday.
China is to establish a permanent financial support framework to promote rural revitalisation and prevent a slide back into poverty, which represents a shift from transitional aid to long-term support.
China’s market regulator summoned major online platform companies on Friday, including Alibaba, Douyin and Meituan, while it directed them to comply with laws and regulations, and rein in promotional practices, according to Bloomberg.
US Secretary of State Rubio and Japanese Foreign Minister Motegi reaffirmed their commitment to deepen bilateral ties.
Disney (DIS) sent a ‘cease and desist’ letter to ByteDance over Seedance 2.0 and alleged that ByteDance has been infringing on its IP to train and develop an AI video generation model without compensation, according to Axios. It was later reported that ByteDance said it would curb its AI video app following Disney's legal threats, according to the BBC.
RBI tightened rules for loans provided to brokers and proprietary firms in an effort to reduce market speculation
FX
DXY eked slight gains in rangebound trade after a lack of major catalysts and with US participants away on Monday.
EUR/USD was little changed amid the absence of any major macro catalysts and with light newsflow from the bloc, while comments from ECB President Lagarde and news that the ECB is to make its repo backstop available to other central banks across the world, did little to spur price action.
GBP/USD held on to most of Friday's spoils but with price action contained by resistance around 1.3650 and following comments from BoE's Mann that the UK economy is sluggish and tepid, with consumers spending less due to being scarred by high inflation.
USD/JPY edged higher and returned to above the 153.00 level in the aftermath of the weaker-than-expected preliminary Q4 GDP data for Japan.
Antipodeans were mixed with little fresh macro drivers and a lack of tier-1 data from either side of the Tasman.
Fixed Income
10yr UST futures traded little changed and held on to last week's spoils after returning above the 113.00 level in the aftermath of the softer US inflation data, while price action was contained to start the week by the closure of US cash markets for Washington's Birthday.
Bund futures lacked demand in the absence of any major catalysts and with light newsflow from the bloc.
10yr JGB futures were marginally higher following disappointing preliminary GDP data for Q4, but with gains limited after failing to sustain a brief reclaim of the 132.00 level.
Commodities
Crude futures were rangebound amid light energy-specific newsflow from over the weekend and after last Friday's indecisive performance, where attention was on a source report that noted OPEC+ is leaning towards resuming oil output hikes from April, but with no decision made.
Slovak PM Fico said he has information that the Druzhba pipeline has been fixed after damage in Ukraine, although he believes that supplies to Hungary and Slovakia have become a part of political blackmail.
Spot gold took a breather after edging higher in the aftermath of the recent softer-than-expected US inflation data, with price action also contained by the holiday closures across Asia and North America.
Copper futures were subdued, with their largest buyer away for more than a week due to the Chinese New Year/Spring Festival holiday.
Texas venture-backed startup Hertha Metal vowed mass production of steel with 25% cost savings, which could reduce US reliance on imports.
Geopolitics: Middle East
US military is preparing for potential operations against Iran that could last for weeks if US President Trump orders an attack and the US fully expects Iran to retaliate, according to sources cited by Reuters.
US President Trump told Israeli PM Netanyahu during a meeting in December that he would support Israel striking Iran’s ballistic missile program if the US and Iran are not able to reach a deal, according to CBS.
Iran confirmed that indirect talks between the US and Iran will resume in Geneva on Tuesday under the mediation of Oman, while Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi left for Geneva on Sunday.
Iranian diplomat said Iran is open to nuclear deal compromises if the US discusses lifting sanctions, while it was also reported that Iran said potential energy, mining and aircraft deals are on the table in talks with the US.
Israel’s cabinet approved the proposal to register West Bank lands as ‘state property’, while Palestinians condemned the ‘de facto annexation’ which Peace Now said likely amounts to a ‘mega land grab’.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
US President Trump said on Friday that Ukrainian President Zelensky is going to have to get moving and that Russia wants to get a deal.
US Secretary of State Rubio said they don’t know if Russia is serious about finding an end to the war in Ukraine and will continue to test it, while it was reported that he met with Ukrainian President Zelensky on security and deepening defence and economic partnerships.
Ukrainian drones targeted Russia’s Taman seaport and fuel tanks in the Black Sea region.
UK and European allies were reported on Friday to be weighing seizing Russian shadow fleet ships and tightening curbs on Russia's economy.
French Foreign Minister Barrot said some G7 nations have expressed a willingness to proceed with a maritime services ban on Russian oil, which they hope to include in the 20th sanctions package that they are actively preparing.
Geopolitics: Other
European Commission President von der Leyen said that they face the very distinct threat of outside forces trying to weaken their union, while she added that mutual defence is not an optional task for the European Union; it is an obligation within their own treaty, and it is their collective commitment to stand by each other in case of aggression.
Pentagon said the US military struck an alleged drug cartel boat in the Caribbean, which killed three people.
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnigt wrap
I hope you all had a good weekend. To stay in Winter Olympics mood the family watched "Cool Runnings" last night. I haven't seen it for 32 years. Please don't tell anyone but I had a few tears in my eyes at the end. I blamed it on the hay fever that has now started.
There will be a lot of tears out there in markets for other reasons at the moment. Just two weeks ago, the idea of AI-driven disruption still felt like an abstract, almost academic thought experiment—something we could safely revisit once we had clearer evidence of how AI would be deployed and integrated across the economy. Fast forward 14 days, and markets have wiped out well over a trillion dollars of global equity value on the fear that AI could fundamentally reshape business models and compress profitability across a wide range of industries, including software, legal services, IT consulting, wealth management, logistics, insurance, real estate brokerage and commercial real estate.
Some of the sell off in “old economy” sectors feels overdone to me. But as I argued in our 2026 World Outlook back in November, the real challenge is that even by the end of this year we still won’t have enough evidence to identify the structural winners and losers with confidence. That leaves plenty of room for investors’ imaginations—both optimistic and pessimistic—to run wild. As such big sentiment swings will continue to be the order of the day.
My instinct is that the reaction in things like commercial real estate, for example, has been particularly exaggerated. Markets seem to be extrapolating a scenario in which vast numbers of white collar workers are made redundant almost overnight, leading to a dramatic collapse in office demand. If that view turns out to be correct, we’ll be facing societal challenges far larger than anything currently being priced into equities. While trying to catch a falling knife may be too risky for many, beginning to cushion the descent could be sensible in many old economy sectors. Markets can’t sustain a disruption narrative across multiple sectors for months or quarters without concrete evidence — and that evidence is likely to take much longer to emerge. Fascinating times.
As for this week, today is a US holiday but inflation will remain in the spotlight at a global level after Friday's slightly softer US CPI which helped contribute to a decent rates rally to end the week. Prints are due in the US (PCE - Friday), the UK (Wednesday), Canada (Tuesday) and Japan (Friday). Other economic highlights will include the FOMC minutes (Wednesday), Q4 GDP in the US (Friday), as well as the global flash PMIs (Friday). Earnings reports will feature Walmart (Thursday), Nestlé (Thursday) and BHP (today). It's the earnings calm before next week's Nvidia storm.
In the US, this holiday shortened week (President's Day today) features a data calendar dominated by releases that were pushed back by last year’s government shutdown. The most consequential updates will land on Friday, when the advance estimate of Q4 GDP arrives alongside December’s personal income and consumption figures—key inputs for shaping expectations for the early part of this year.
For markets assessing the underlying pulse of demand heading into 2026, private final sales to domestic purchasers (PFDP) will carry more weight than the headline GDP print. This indicator—closely monitored by Fed Chair Powell—is expected by our economists to slow to 2.0% from 2.9% in Q3, though risks appear tilted upward. One swing factor: Wednesday’s durable goods report, where modest gains outside of transportation could soften the deceleration. On the consumer front, real PCE growth is expected to cool to 2.5% after two quarters of outsized strength but should still signal ample momentum heading into the new year.
Friday’s income and spending report will also offer the latest reading on core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Our economists expect another 0.4% monthly increase for December, lifting the year over year rate to 2.9%. Updated seasonal factors from last week’s CPI release suggest some mild downward pressure on inflation trends in the second half of 2025. Still, January’s CPI data, although softer than we anticipated, do not translate into equivalent relief for core PCE—in fact, our team currently sees another 0.4% gain for January's release (delayed until March 13th). Depending on the strength of medical services, airfare, and portfolio management components in the upcoming PPI report, a 0.5% monthly rise cannot be ruled out, which would push the year over year rate toward 3.1%. So don't get too excited about the softer CPI last week and the huge rates rally.
Additional releases this week will help clarify whether recent severe winter weather has disrupted factory sector activity. January industrial production, due Wednesday, should benefit from a jump in utility output, while weather effects may weigh on the Empire State Survey tomorrow and the Philadelphia Fed survey on Thursday.
Labor market data will also be in focus, particularly Thursday’s jobless claims, which line up with the survey week for the February employment report. As our economists have pointed out, private nonfarm job gains have averaged 103k over the past three months, slightly above the pace at this point in 2025 and matching the start of 2024. See their latest US employment chartbook here.
This week will also feature a dense lineup of Federal Reserve speakers which you can see alongside all the key global data in the day-by-day week ahead calendar at the end as usual.
Moving away from the US, inflation will also be in focus in Japan (Friday) and Canada (tomorrow). For the former, our Chief Japan Economist sees the January nationwide CPI showing a slowdown in both core CPI inflation ex. fresh food to 2.1% YoY (+2.4% in December) and core-core CPI inflation ex. fresh food and energy to 2.7% (+2.9%). Also important will be the global flash PMIs due on Friday as a health check on global growth. In Europe, the spotlight will be on UK inflation (Wednesday), with labour market data due tomorrow and retail sales on Friday. Our UK economist expects headline CPI inflation to drop to 3.0% YoY (3.4% in December) and core CPI also landing at 3.0% YoY (3.2% YoY). See more in his full preview here. In terms of key rate decisions, the RBNZ are expected to remain on hold on Wednesday.
Finally, the Munich Security Conference wrapped up over the weekend, where key topics included Ukraine, Russia, and the fate of Greenland. And while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s speech was nothing like Vice President JD Vance’s at last year’s conference, which triggered a “wake-up” call for European leaders, Rubio reiterated the administration’s view that Europe needed to leave behind its focus on energy policies, trade and mass migration.
Recapping last week now, the tech volatility that has dogged markets since the start of the month broadened into a far more indiscriminate sell-off. The trough came on Thursday, marked by a sharp drop in software stocks, but the weakness extended well beyond tech. Companies across wealth management, real estate and financials suffered double digit declines, underscoring how widespread the pullback has become. Market breadth confirmed this shift as the equal weighted S&P 500 fell -1.37% on Thursday, though it managed to finish the week up +0.29% (+1.04% on Friday). Ultimately, the sell-off left the major US indices on the back foot: the S&P 500 slipped -1.39% (+0.05% on Friday), the Nasdaq lost -2.10% (-0.22% on Friday), and the Magnificent 7 slid -3.24% (-1.11% on Friday).
Although the AI scare dominated sentiment, a heavy slate of US data also shaped the market narrative. Early in the week, softer prints—including flat December retail sales, a dovish Q4 Employment Cost Index, and slower Q4 growth expectations from the Atlanta Fed—pushed Treasury yields lower across the curve. That picture shifted midweek after a stronger than expected January jobs report, which delivered the largest gain in nonfarm payrolls (+130k vs. +65k expected) since December 2024 and reinforced confidence that the US economy carried solid momentum into 2026. Then on Friday, January CPI came in below expectations, adding another dovish note. Although the data offered mixed signals at times, the overall takeaway was sufficiently dovish for traders to increase the number of expected rate cuts by December 2026 to 63.4bps (+7.7bps on the week). This helped drive the largest weekly drop in the 10 year Treasury yield since August 2025, down -15.8bps (-5.0bps on Friday) to 4.05%. The 2 year yield also moved sharply lower, falling -8.9bps to 3.41% (-4.8bps on Friday), its lowest level since 2022.
European markets, meanwhile, delivered a comparatively resilient performance. The STOXX 600 (+0.09%, -0.13% Friday), DAX (+0.78%, +0.25% Friday) and FTSE 100 (+0.74%, +0.42% Friday) all posted modest gains for the week. European sovereign bonds rallied as well, with the 10 year bund yield dropping -8.7bps—its steepest weekly decline since April 2025. That move was outpaced by gilts, which fell -9.8bps (-3.6bps on Friday) despite a sharp early week sell-off triggered by renewed questions surrounding Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s position.
Elsewhere, performance was mixed. Brent crude edged down -0.44% (+0.34% on Friday), while gold extended its upward run, rising +1.56% (+2.43% on Friday).
Will London’s half term week finally give us a quiet week in 2026? You’d probably have to guess at ‘unlikely’.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 02/16/2026 - 09:40
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is on the final leg of a whirlwind trip to Europe that saw him address the Munich Security Conference, meet Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban for talks, and visit another right-wing ally, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico. Despite speaking of an unbreakable link and shared heritage with Europeans, Rubio’s message has hardly changed, as he criticised Europe’s energy policy, striking what Douglas Herbert of FRANCE 24 described as the “same ideological notes” and the “same resonance with many of the MAGA themes.”
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has begun a two-day visit to Slovakia and Hungary, aiming to strengthen relations with the pro-Trump leaders in these Eastern European nations.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has accused China of 'bullying' by detaining or holding up dozens of Panama-flagged ships following a canal clash. The US has voiced 'serious concerns' over China’s intensified inspections of these vessels, vowing support for Panama amid its escalating fallout with Beijing.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has sharply criticized Spain and other European NATO allies for their limited support in the war with Iran, calling their alleged lack of assistance 'very disappointing' and suggesting Washington might reassess its relationship with the alliance after the conflict concludes, questioning the benefits of the alliance for the US.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke on the phone with Georgian Dream Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze, discussing areas of mutual interest including security in the Caucasus and Black Sea region.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has predicted the war with Iran could conclude within weeks, not months, as America anticipates Iran's response 'any moment' after strikes on nuclear and metal processing facilities. G7 foreign ministers have urged a halt to attacks on civilians in the Middle East and called on Iran to immediately restore shipping freedom in the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Rubio reiterated his prediction after meeting G7 counterparts in France.
G7 foreign ministers are meeting near Paris to discuss Iran war strategy, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio seeking to convince allies. Meanwhile, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has angered European leaders by unconditionally supporting Donald Trump's war with Iran.
A group of conservative donors is reportedly working to launch a presidential campaign for US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in 2028, as Vice President JD Vance's profile has diminished.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio is reportedly planning President Trump's military interventions, favoring a strategy of 'destroy and deal' that seeks regime compliance rather than outright change.
A group of American congressmen and senators have written to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, seeking clarification on reports of US troop withdrawal from KFOR in Kosovo, with a particular focus on Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Several members of the US Congress have sent a letter to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, urging him to prevent any potential restriction of American troops in Kosovo, warning that such a withdrawal could lead to instability.
• Sale fast-tracks 12,000 thousand-pound bomb bodies in $152m deal
• Secretary of State Rubio cites ‘emergency’ to justify sidestepping lawmakers
• Democrat slams White House, calls it an ‘emergency of its own creation’
WASHINGTON: The US State Department said on Friday it has approved a sale worth $151.8 million to Israel for munitions and munitions support, without submitting it for congressional review.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio determined that an emergency existed requiring an imm...
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has stirred unexpected debate in Taiwan after invoking the phrase “unleash Chiang” while warning that Washington would intensify its strikes against Iran.
Speaking…
Senators emerge from classified Capitol Hill session with Secretary of State Marco Rubio claiming administration has no endgame for conflict with Tehran
Amid Cuba's severe electricity, food, and medicine shortages exacerbated by a US oil blockade, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is reportedly engaged in discreet negotiations with a Cuban leader for a 'soft, friendly transition' for the island.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that US airstrikes on Iran were prompted by Israel's determination to launch an attack and an assessment of the situation.
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on Tuesday that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's statement a few hours ago shows that this war was "selective" for America,...
Following a joint US-Israeli attack on Iran, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has canceled his planned visit to Israel, the State Department confirmed.
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Secretary of State Marco Rubio walks a diplomatic tightrope in the Caribbean, pressing for change in Cuba while regional leaders warn of a deepening humanitarian and migration crisis.
A blockade on oil imports is leaving Cuba with few resources. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio wants Cuba's government on its knees. The situation has become even more tense following a fatal confrontation at sea.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is anticipated to visit Athens later this year as part of the Greece-US Strategic Dialogue, an agreement reached during his recent meeting with George Gerapetritis in Washington.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that any future nuclear arms control agreement must include China alongside the US and Russia, emphasizing Washington's push for trilateral talks.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio calls Cuba coast guard shootout with U.S.-registered speedboat "highly unusual" as investigation into incident continues.
The United States and China have achieved a certain degree of stability in their long-strained relationship, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Wednesday, ahead of Donald Trump's visit to
Greek Foreign Minister George Gerapetritis is in Washington for a meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The talks, scheduled for midday, are expected to focus on deepening relations and affirming Athens' role as a pillar of stability in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Serbian Foreign Minister Marko Đurić met with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington during a working visit, stating that efforts are underway to make 2026 a strong year for bilateral relations.
While European leaders cautiously welcomed a softer tone from the US at the Munich Security Conference, American independence and the "Trumpian narrative" remained top of mind for Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo arrived in Kyiv and met with Ukrainian Parliament Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk to discuss continued Ukraine-US cooperation, including strengthening defense support and maintaining sanctions pressure.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio attended the annual Munich Security Conference, delivering a speech that addressed European security concerns and sparked debate about nuclear deterrence.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif met US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington, where they discussed cooperation in critical minerals following a Board of Peace summit.
The United States is demanding that Cuba make 'dramatic changes very soon,' with Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly in contact with Raúl Castro’s grandson.
PoliticsThe GuardianTimes of India1mo ago2 sources
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has backed Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's leadership during a visit to Budapest. Nationalist leader Orban faces a strong opposition challenge ahead of electi
While European leaders cautiously welcomed a softer tone from the US at the Munich Security Conference, American independence and the "Trumpian narrative" remained top of mind for Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Estonian official Kaja Kallas sharply responded to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's remarks on free speech, highlighting Estonia's high ranking in press freedom.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper have agreed on the necessity of international efforts to address the escalating crisis in the Middle East.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has instructed American diplomats to utilize the social media platform X and collaborate with military psychological operations units to counter foreign anti-American propaganda.
Iran's Parliament Security Committee has approved a plan to impose tolls on vessels passing through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a measure that also includes considering a ban on American and Israeli ships from using the vital waterway, with the plan now advancing.
A heated discussion reportedly took place during a G7 meeting on Friday, involving EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas and US Secretary of State Marco, though details of the argument are not fully disclosed.
Norway's Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre held discussions with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US National Security Minister Markwayne Mullin on Wednesday evening.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio underscored Greece's significance as a valuable ally and partner in security, economy, and energy in his message commemorating Greece's Independence Day on March 25th.
An internal directive dated March 16, signed by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, was sent to all US diplomatic and consular missions worldwide, instructing diplomats to deliver a specific message to allies by Friday.
Brazilian President Lula's decision against Darren Beattie is tied to a move in August by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio that revoked and restricted visas of some Brazilian officials
Several members of the US Congress have sent a letter to Secretary of State Mark Rubio, urging him to prevent any potential limitation of American troops in Kosovo, warning that such a withdrawal could destabilize the region.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, condemning Iran's ongoing attacks against Saudi Arabia.
A Lithuanian article discusses a speech by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the Munich Security Conference, raising questions about potential US intentions to dismantle the EU.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has spoken by phone with Cypriot Foreign Minister Constantinos Kombos to discuss recent developments in Iran and the wider Middle East region, according to US State…
Secretary of State Marco Rubio now maintains that the president decided they weren’t going to let Tehran attack first. Nearly six out of 10 citizens disapprove of the operation, according to a CNN poll
Cuba has charged six individuals with terrorism following a speedboat shootout, claiming the vessel came from the United States to cause chaos, a claim denied by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Worldbloombergdie-pressehindu+2Times of Indiaklix-ba1mo ago5 sources
'DEPART NOW': US Tells Citizens To Flee Middle East, But Most Airspace Closed
As Iran's response to Israeli and US warfare causes havoc across the Middle East, the US government is urging its citizens to immediately evacuate if they're in any of 14 countries in the region --something far easier said than done.
"The [State Department] urges Americans to DEPART NOW...using available commercial transportation, due to serious safety risks," wrote Assistant Secretary of State Mora N...
The United States attacked Iran only after learning that ally Israel was going to strike and fearing Tehran would retaliate against US forces, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Monday. "We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action. We knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces, and we knew that if we didn't preemptively go after them before they launched those attacks, we would suffer higher casualties," Rubio told reporters.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the United States is not currently postured to deploy ground forces in Iran, though President Donald Trump retains that option.
An unprecedented oil blockade is pushing Cuba to the brink of collapse, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the center of efforts to pressure the island. A new deadly maritime incident has further escalated tensions.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will no longer travel to Israel on Monday, as announced, after the joint American-Israeli attack launched Saturday against Iran and Tehran's response in…
An unprecedented oil blockade is pushing Cuba to the brink of collapse, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the center of efforts to destabilize the island.
An unprecedented oil blockade is pushing Cuba to the brink of collapse, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the center, aiming to cripple the island, further escalating tensions after a deadly maritime incident.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić stated this evening that Serbian Foreign Minister Marko Đurić accidentally met US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington, with whom he had…
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that President Trump is frustrated because he doesn't understand why Ukraine and Russia cannot reach an agreement to end the war, into which he has invested…
The Cuban military killed four armed individuals who arrived by speedboat from the United States. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that this was not a US operation and no American government personnel were involved.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington was seeking its own facts about the shooting and would 'respond accordingly.' In Washington, US Vice President JD Vance said the White House was 'monitoring' the situation and that 'hopefully it's not as bad as we fear it could be.'
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the United States and China have achieved 'stability' in their long-contentious relationship, weeks before Donald Trump's planned visit to Beijing.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will hold talks with Caribbean leaders in Saint Kitts and Nevis on regional security, migration, and drug trafficking, following tensions with Venezuela and Cuba.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivered a speech at the Munich Security Conference in Germany amid growing tensions between the U.S. and its European allies.
Former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo arrived in Kyiv and met with Ruslan Stefanchuk, Chair of the Verkhovna Rada, to discuss Ukrainian-American cooperation, including defense support and sanctions pressure.
• Rubio hails Islamabad’s backing for Gaza plan, role in peace board
WASHINGTON: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif wrapped up a two-day visit to Washington on Friday, securing a US pledge to cooperate on critical minerals and energy after aligning his country with a US President Donald Trump-led Gaza peace initiative and praising his role in defusing a regional crisis last year.
PM Shehbaz met with Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Thursday to discuss shifting the bilateral relationship toward...
PoliticsBBCThe GuardianAl Jazeera+6Fox NewsThe IndependentTimes of IndiaDawnANSADaily Sabah1mo ago9 sources
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz expressed his displeasure regarding the standing ovation given to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the Munich Security Conference.
President Donald Trump is committed to the success of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban because his leadership is crucial for US national interests, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Monday, offering a strong US endorsement for the long-time nationalist leader who is facing an election in April.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has signed a civil nuclear cooperation agreement with Hungary, highlighting the close relationship between the two countries.
US media reports indicate Anthropic’s AI model, Claude, assisted the Pentagon in an operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, an action defended by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, while US forces also intercepted a sanctioned oil tanker tied to Venezuela.
Chief of Defence Forces (CDF) and Chief of the Army Staff (COAS) Field Marshal Asim Munir has discussed “global and regional security dynamics” with United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Inter