France plans to double prison sentences and fines for ships operating under false flags, aiming to strengthen its fight against Russia's 'shadow fleet' which is violating international sanctions.

The Arctic Metagaz, a liquid natural gas carrier belonging to Russia's 'shadow fleet,' is adrift in the Mediterranean Sea more than a month after an explosion, following a failed towing operation by Libya.

Canada has added 100 Russian shadow fleet vessels to its sanctions list as part of ongoing measures.

The United Kingdom has announced its readiness to seize Russian 'shadow fleet' ships, with ministers having identified a legal basis in January to board sanctioned vessels if necessary.

Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna emphasized the need for joint international action to deter Russia's 'shadow fleet' in both the Mediterranean and Baltic Seas, following a recent incident involving one such vessel.

French authorities have boarded a Mozambique-flagged oil tanker in the Mediterranean Sea, asserting that the vessel is connected to Russia's shadow fleet.

President Volodymyr Zelensky called on Ukraine's allies to maintain pressure on Russia and take tougher action against its 'shadow fleet' to reduce the oil revenues funding the war, emphasizing that these vessels should not feel safe in European waters.

Emmanuel Macron said France “will not allow” so-called “shadow fleet” ships to “line their pockets while helping finance Russia’s war effort.”

Russia is considering using Navy ships to escort merchant vessels and deploying fire groups on board to protect them from Western and Ukrainian drone attacks.

‘Business as usual’ for Iranian shadow fleet passing through Southeast Asia, say analysts  phnompenhpost.com

‘Serious risk of major ecological disaster’ as vessel drifts for weeks after being struck by suspected drone attack A severely damaged Russian tanker carrying liquified natural gas that has been adrift in the Mediterranean for two weeks, raising concerns of a “major ecological disaster”, has floated into Libyan waters, Italy’s civil protection agency said on Wednesday. The Arctic Metagaz was part of a Russian “shadow fleet” used to circumvent sanctions imposed on the country’s oil and gas aft...

The Russian captain was arrested on suspicion of using forged documents

A Swedish court has ordered the detention of a Russian ship captain suspected of sailing a vessel under a false flag as part of Russia's 'shadow fleet'.

The skipper of the Sea Owl One is suspected of producing forged documents when it was boarded by coast guard.

Analysis reveals that 'shadow fleets' of ships operating to circumvent international sanctions are now facing a global crackdown.

Supply chains remain disrupted, commodity prices have shot up and oil prices have crossed $100 a barrel as a war rages in the Middle East, particularly disrupting movement in the strategically…

The Coast Guard has boarded another ship suspected of being a shadow fleet vessel off Trelleborg.

Focus on Russia's "shadow fleet" and security guarantees for Ukraine The post Zelensky in Paris tomorrow for a meeting with Macron: On the table are “means to increase pressure on Russia” appeared first on ProtoThema English.

Russia's shadow fleet conducts $29.3 million oil transfer amid Middle East conflict escalation, according to maritime intelligence firm Windward.

Russian personnel with experience as mercenaries and security operatives have reportedly begun appearing among the crews of shadow fleet tankers transporting Russian oil, possibly linked to the Wagner Group.

Minister for Defence and Foreign Affairs Helen McEntee presented urgent proposals to Cabinet to amend the Defence Act, which would allow Defence Forces to board 'Shadow Fleet' vessels.

An investigation by Helsingin Sanomat tracked Russia's 'shadow fleet' tankers in the Gulf of Finland for months, highlighting the daily risk of an oil disaster off the Finnish coast.

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The Russian-owned tanker Ethera, part of Moscow's shadow fleet, was seized by Belgian forces on March 1 and faces a €10 million bail.

The tanker's Russian captain and its 20-strong crew were ordered to remain on board.

Belgian forces, with French support, boarded and seized an oil tanker belonging to Russia's 'secret fleet', leading Moscow to accuse Belgium of piracy.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has responded to the seizure by Belgian military forces of an oil tanker belonging to Russia's "shadow fleet."

Belgian armed forces seized a Russian oil tanker in the North Sea, boarding the shadow fleet vessel with helicopters. It is being escorted to Zeebrugge port for impoundment.

Belgium seizes suspected Russian shadow fleet tanker  The Straits Times

Ukraine's Defence Ministry announced it is actively engaging in economic warfare to block Russia's shadow fleet, which Moscow uses to circumvent Western energy sanctions imposed since the full-scale invasion.

A $500,000 reward has been offered for information leading to the discovery of a missing tanker, as the US and EU intensify efforts to disrupt the operations of 'shadow fleets' involved in illicit activities.

Canada has announced a new CA$2 billion (about US$1.4 billion) package of military aid for Ukraine and imposed new sanctions on Russia, including measures targeting the shadow fleet and a lower price

Canada announced C$300 million in new military assistance for Ukraine and sanctions on 100 vessels linked to Russia’s shadow fleet, as stated by Defense Minister David McGu.

The Slovak Foreign Ministry reports that the 20th package of sanctions against Russia has not been fully agreed upon, citing unresolved issues including dissatisfaction with the ban on servicing ships suspected of being linked to the 'shadow fleet'.

A French court is set to determine its jurisdiction over the Chinese captain of the oil tanker Boracay, which is reportedly part of Russia's 'shadow fleet,' after he failed to comply with French navy orders off the coast of Brittany.

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine four years ago, several layers of Western sanctions have followed. All this time, the moment has been awaited when, due to economic deterioration, Russia will not be able to continue the war

Zelensky introduces new sanctions on Russian shadow fleet  The Kyiv Independent

India Seizes Sanctioned Shadow Fleet Tankers Amid Trade Thaw With U.S.  The Wall Street Journal

India Seizes Sanctioned Shadow Fleet Tankers Amid Trade Thaw With U.S.  The Wall Street Journal

India has seized sanctioned shadow fleet tankers, a move that comes amid a trade thaw with the U.S.

A suspected Russian 'shadow fleet' tanker, the GRINCH, was allowed to depart France after its owners paid a fine, raising concerns about sanctions evasion.

A Venezuelan-Like Oil Blockade Against Iran Could Enable The US To Divide-And-Rule RIC Authored by Andrew Korybko, The cascading consequences of such a blockade, which might not ultimately be imposed due it entailing a high risk of war with Iran, could simultaneously weaken Russia, India, and China. The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump 2.0 is considering imposing a Venezuelan-like oil blockade against Iran. It hasn’t yet done so due to concerns that Iran might attack the US’ regional military assets and/or seize its Gulf allies’ oil tankers, with either scenario destabilizing the global oil market and spiking the risk of war, so it might never ultimately happen. If the US were to successfully impose such a blockade, however, then it might be able to adroitly divide-and-rule Russia, India, and China (RIC). “The US Wants To Replicate The Venezuelan Model In Iran” by coercing Iran into subordinating itself and its energy industry to the US. The “Trump Doctrine”, which is shaped by Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge Colby’s “Strategy of Denial”, seeks to deny strategic resources to the US’ rivals. Accordingly, it has an interest in cutting off China’s average import of 1.38 million barrels of Iranian oil per day last year, which could hit its economy hard if they’re not replaced (and that might be difficult). These exports could then be redirected to India, thus enabling India to more than replace its average import of 1 million barrels per day of Russian oil last month, with the revenue placed in an escrow account per the Venezuelan precedent for release to Iran if it cuts a nuclear and missile deal with the US. Through these means, India could zero out its import of Russian oil while raising the US’ role over its energy security exactly as Trump 2.0 wants, with the end result dealing incredible harm to RIC. Russia’s budgetary revenue from such sales would be reduced and could only realistically be replaced in part through more sales to China, though that might not be as easy as it sounds. The UK is preparing a campaign to seize Russia’s “shadow fleet” in the English Channel after being emboldened by the US’ seizure of a Russian-flagged oil tanker near its coast. If Russia doesn’t impose unacceptable costs on the UK, and it didn’t impose any on the US for doing this, then its Baltic Sea tankers might never reach China. Those from the Black Sea might not reach it either if the UK allies with Greece and Cyprus to cut off Russia’s “shadow fleet” from that vector too. Pipeline exports, which have limits to how much they can be scaled, would then be the only means for replacing part of Russia’s lost oil exports to India with China apart from relatively minimal tanker exports from the Far East. The resultant economic pressure on Russia and China might make them susceptible to lopsided deals with the US on Ukraine and trade. As for India, it already entered into a partially lopsided deal with the US as regards the informal quid pro quo of it agreeing to zero out its import of Russian oil in exchange for their trade deal, and the US’ growing influence over India’s energy security could curtail its hard-earned strategic autonomy. This might then be leveraged for coercing a reduction in India’s purchase of Chinese goods and services so as to place more pressure on the People’s Republic to agree to its own lopsided trade deal with the US. This worst-case scenario of the US’ dividing-and-ruling RIC can be averted by Iran deterring or breaking a US blockade on its oil in parallel with Russia doing the same with respect to any British one against its “shadow fleet”. These options require immense political will since they entail the potential cost of a hot war breaking out between Great Powers so it’s unclear whether they’ll be implemented, but likewise, so too might the US and UK ultimately back off from their possible blockades for the same reason. Tyler Durden Mon, 02/16/2026 - 20:05

France plans to double prison sentences and fines for owners and operators of vessels linked to Russia's shadow fleet, specifically targeting those sailing under false flags or refusing to comply with stop orders.

According to the Kyiv Independent, Russia's shadow fleet, involved in transporting sanctioned oil, is extensively utilizing modern Western technologies, including the Starlink satellite system.

The European Union announced it will expand its military naval operations in the Red Sea and the Western Indian Ocean, including new powers to protect underwater infrastructure and monitor Russia's 'shadow fleet', while refraining from participating in any potential missions aimed at securing oil and gas transport through the Strait of Hormuz for now.

Northern European countries vowed to intensify efforts against Russia's "shadow fleet" of sanctioned oil tankers, following reports of a drone hitting one such tanker near the Black Sea entrance.

The operation will be focused on sanctioned ships transiting British waters.

A senior Putin advisor stated that Russia plans to deploy armed naval patrols globally to defend its ships, following recent attacks on its shadow fleet.

A Russian oil and gas tanker, possibly targeted by drones, is adrift in the Mediterranean without a crew, raising serious environmental concerns if it leaks.

Ukraine and European partners are developing legislation that would enable the confiscation of oil transported by ships belonging to the shadow fleet.

France boards tanker it says is linked to Russian shadow fleet in Mediterranean  The Straits Times

Russia is reportedly considering providing armed escorts for its 'shadow fleet' of oil tankers, with a close ally of Putin also suggesting the possibility of arming the tankers themselves, which transport sanctioned Russian oil globally.

Analysts report that Iran's shadow fleet continues its 'business as usual' operations, passing through Southeast Asian waters despite international tensions.

Sweden has detained two tankers in the south of the country and arrested a captain, increasing pressure on Russia's 'shadow fleet' which is crucial for its economy and often escorted by warships.

Swedish authorities have detained the captain of a Russian tanker suspected of sailing under a false flag and presenting fake documents, amidst concerns over illicit shipping practices.

The skipper of the Sea Owl One is suspected of producing forged documents when it was boarded by coast guard.

Analysts describe Russia's 'shadow fleet' of vessels as a crucial lifeline for the country amidst ongoing sanctions, enabling continued trade and oil exports.

Tankers in Russia's 'shadow fleet', transporting sanctioned Russian oil through the Baltic Sea, are reportedly sailing with two additional crew members who have experience in security organizations, including Wagner and GRU.

Swedish authorities have stopped another tanker suspected of belonging to Russia’s 'shadow fleet' in its waters, raising concerns over security and environmental risks associated with these vessels.

The Swedish Coast Guard boarded another vessel belonging to Russia's 'shadow fleet' on Thursday evening. This marks a continued effort to monitor and inspect these ships.

Existing laws will be updated to give the service ‘clearly defined statutory powers at sea to counter threats in our maritime domain’

Finnish newspaper Helsingin Sanomat has utilized new AI tools to investigate and track Russia's shadow fleet, enabling them to tackle complex subjects that were previously too labor-intensive.

Swedish authorities have detained a crew member from a Russian 'shadow fleet' cargo ship, which was recently stopped off the Swedish coast on suspicion of transporting grain stolen from Ukraine.

Swedish coast guard and police have seized a cargo ship with forged registration documents, suspected of belonging to Russia's 'shadow fleet' and transporting stolen Ukrainian grain.

A Russian gas tanker, part of the Kremlin's shadow fleet, was reportedly struck by a drone between Malta and Sicily. The attack on the vessel, which departed from Murmansk, has not yet been claimed by any group.

Belgian forces released a video showing them boarding a Russian shadow fleet oil tanker, an action French President Emmanuel Macron described as a 'major blow' to Russia's efforts to evade sanctions.

Belgian armed forces, with French support, have intercepted a tanker belonging to Russia's shadow fleet, suspected of sailing under a false flag. The vessel will be towed to Zeebrugge port, an action praised by Ukrainian President Zelensky.

Video captured the moment Iranian forces attacked, possibly by mistake, a tanker believed to belong to Tehran's 'shadow fleet' near the Strait of Hormuz.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has urged for the modernization of European legislation to enable not only the detention but also the confiscation of tankers transporting Russian oil, targeting the 'shadow fleet'.

Belgium has boarded a Russian 'shadow fleet' vessel, marking a first for the country.

European Parliament President Roberta Metsola stated that the European Union must do more to stop Russia's 'shadow fleet.' She noted that European countries continue to finance Russia's war against…

Australia has imposed additional sanctions against 180 individuals and entities linked to Russia, as well as ships of the 'shadow fleet', as announced by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

The Gulf of Finland faces a heightened risk of oil spills this winter, as ice cover would complicate cleanup efforts and the presence of a 'shadow fleet' poses additional problems, threatening the sensitive Baltic Sea ecosystem.

The UK has imposed sanctions on a New Zealand insurance firm after an investigation revealed it provided coverage for vessels involved in Russia's 'shadow fleet' oil trade.

The U.S. Is Hunting the Shadow Fleet. This Is What It’s Up Against.  WSJ

A tanker suspected of being part of Russia's 'shadow fleet' to bypass oil sanctions was seized by France, reportedly with two Russian security personnel on board.

The United States is intensifying efforts to deter the smuggling of illicit oil by a 'shadow fleet,' facing challenges as even large tankers employ various methods to hide their activities.

Greece and Malta are reportedly blocking the 20th package of EU sanctions, which aims to prohibit all maritime services within the EU for Russian ships, causing concern beyond the Kremlin due to the influence of the powerful shipping lobby.

India has seized sanctioned shadow fleet tankers, a move occurring amidst a thawing of trade relations with the United States.

India Seizes Sanctioned Shadow Fleet Tankers Amid Trade Thaw With U.S.  The Wall Street Journal

India has seized sanctioned shadow fleet tankers, a move that comes amidst a thawing of trade relations with the United States.

India Seizes Sanctioned Shadow Fleet Tankers Amid Trade Thaw With U.S.  The Wall Street Journal

A suspected Russian shadow fleet tanker, the GRINCH, was allowed to leave France after paying a fine.

Futures, Global Markets Rise With US Markets Closed For President's Day Stocks gained, bitcoin tumbled and bonds steadied after Friday's cool CPI data reinforced expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates on multiple occasions this year. With US markets closed for the Presidents’ Day holiday and mainland China’s markets closed for Lunar New Year holidays, trading was muted on Monday. As of 9:00am ET, futures on the S&P 500 added 0.4% and Europe’s Stoxx 600 index rose 0.4% as banking shares rebounded from a sharp decline last week. German bunds and Treasury futures were steady after US yields touched the lowest since December on Friday. The path of US interest rates remains in focus following Friday’s slower-than-expected US inflation print as traders fully price a Fed cut in July and the strong chance of a move in June.   “The backdrop for equities is positive post CPI,” said Andrea Gabellone, head of global equities at KBC Securities. At the same time, there could be “more dispersion ahead as sentiment around key AI-exposed sectors is still very critical,” he added.  That sentiment was echoed by other strategists seeking to distinguish between AI losers and winners. A JPMorgan Chase & Co. team led by Mislav Matejka urged caution on stocks at risk of AI-driven “cannibalization,” including software, business services and media companies. Meanwhile, banks are developing baskets to capitalize on the divergence: as we first reported last Thursday, Goldman launched a new basket of software stocks that goes long firms that will benefit from AI adoption, while shorting the companies whose workflows could be replaced. With AI disruption rippling through markets, a lot will come down to earnings resilience, in particular in the US.  “When you look at the current earnings season, the companies are showing 13% of growth,” Nataliia Lipikhina, head of EMEA equity strategy at JPMorgan, told Bloomberg TV. “Overall, this is the reason why we continue to be positive on the S&P.” Later this week, traders will be watching for ADP private payrolls numbers on Tuesday and the minutes from the Fed’s January meeting on Wednesday for a fresh read on the economy. European stocks gained with bank shares rebounding, after posting their biggest weekly decline since April on worries about disruption from artificial intelligence. The basic resources sector lags, with Norsk Hydro among Europe’s worst performers as both Goldman Sachs and RBC downgrade the stock. Stoxx 600 rises 0.4% to 620.26 with 253 members down, 336 up, and 11 unchanged. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:  NatWest shares rise as much as 4%, the most since October, as Citi analyst Andrew Coombs raises his price target on the UK bank to a Street-high. Seraphim Space shares rise as much as 9.2%, briefly hitting a new all-time high, after the space tech investment firm said the valuations of its four largest holdings increased over the final months of 2025. AECI shares rally as much as 6.1%, the most since July, after the South African commercial-explosives maker shared improved 2025 headline earnings per share guidance. Orsted shares rise as much as 3.8% after analysts at Kepler raise the recommendation to buy from hold over the Danish renewable energy firm’s outlook, despite ongoing uncertainty for the industry in the US. Norsk Hydro shares fall as much as 4.4%, extending Friday’s 5.9% earnings-triggered drop, after being downgraded at Goldman Sachs and RBC over disappointments and pricing pressures in the Norwegian aluminum company’s downstream business. Galderma shares slip as much as 2.2% after naming Luigi La Corte as its new chief financial officer following the news back in July that Thomas Dittrich was departing. Pinewood Technologies shares tumble as much as 32%, the most since April 2024, after Apax Partners said on Friday it will not proceed with a possible cash offer for the car dealership software provider. FlatexDEGIRO shares drop as much as 7.2% after BNP Paribas downgraded the online brokerage firm to neutral from outperform, saying the price reflects too much optimism about its market position in Germany. Maurel & Prom shares slump as much as 12%, pulling back after ending last week at a 2015-high, after announcing it is not currently authorized to resume oil and gas operations in Venezuela. Barratt Redrow shares fall as much as 3.7%, leading a drop in British homebuilders after Rightmove said house prices are stalling. Asian stocks slipped for a second day, led by declines in Japan as traders booked profits after last week’s post-election rally. Several markets were closed or held shortened trading sessions for the Lunar New Year holiday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was down 0.1%. Japan’s Topix Index fell 0.8%, with Mizuho Financial Group Inc. and Toyota Motor Corp. among the companies contributing to the index’s losses.In Hong Kong, AI model developer Minimax Group Inc. surged as much as 30% to more than four times its original listing price, while competitor Knowledge Atlas JSC Ltd. ended 4.7% higher. The market will be closed until Thursday. As investors across the region begin to reevaluate their bets on its artificial-intelligence-driven rally, traders in Japan cashed in gains driven by expectations of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s proactive spending policies last week.Trading in Singapore ended early Monday and will be shut until Wednesday. Equity markets in mainland China, South Korea, Indonesia and Vietnam were closed.  In FX, the yen is the notable mover in currencies, weakening 0.5% against the dollar and pushing USD/JPY back above 153. The offshore yuan is one of the better performers against the greenback. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.1%. There is no cash trading in Treasuries due to the Presidents’ Day holiday. European government bonds are little changed In commdities, gold dipped below $5,000 an ounce, as traders booked profits from a gain in the previous session. Bitcoin tried anf ailed to stage a modest rebound; it last traded around $68,275 after posting its fourth consecutive weekly loss, with the cryptocurrency struggling to find clear direction as a weekend rally fizzled once the momentum ignition algos emerged.  WTI crude futures tread water near $62.90 a barrel.  Top Headlines President Trump said there will be voter ID rules in the mid-term elections this year, whether Congress approves it or not, and they will present a legal argument in an Executive Order. Furthermore, Trump said he has searched the depths of legal arguments not yet articulated nor vetted on this subject, and they will be presenting an irrefutable one in the very near future. Iran says potential energy, mining and aircraft deals on table in talks with US: RTRS Pentagon threatened to cut its ties with Anthropic over the company’s insistence that some limitations are kept on how the military uses its AI models: RTRS UK eyes rapid ban on social media for under 16s, curbs to AI chatbots: RTRS Rampant AI Demand for Memory Is Fueling a Growing Chip Crisis: BBG Warner Bros. Weighs Reopening Sale Negotiations With Paramount: BBG Companies Are Replacing CEOs in Record Numbers—and They’re Getting Younger: WSJ Europe aims to rely less on US defence after Trump's Greenland push: RTRS DOJ Tells Lawmakers Epstein File Redactions Complied With LawL BBG For College Applicants, Pressure to Make Summers Count Has Gotten Even Worse: WSJ Fed's Goolsbee (2027 voter) said on Friday that they are still seeing pretty high services inflation, and he hopes they have seen the peak impact of tariffs, while he added that the job market has been steady, with only modest cooling.  The Break Is Over. Companies Are Jacking Up Prices Again: WSJ Trade/Tariffs USTR Greer said the US and Ecuador expect to sign a trade agreement in the coming weeks. China will waive import value-added taxes on selected seeds, genetic resources, and police dogs through to 2030 to increase agricultural competitiveness and breeding capacity. It was also reported that China will grant zero-tariff access to 53 African nations from May 1st, according to Bloomberg. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his French and German counterparts that China and the EU are partners, not rivals, while he added that China and the EU should manage differences, deepen practical cooperation and work together on global challenges. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks began the week in the green but with gains limited following a lack of major fresh catalysts from over the weekend and amid thinned conditions owing to holiday closures in the region and North America. ASX 200 traded marginally higher with upside led by tech, although gains are capped by underperformance in the utilities, mining, materials and resources sectors, while participants also digested a slew of earnings releases. Nikkei 225 traded indecisively with the index constrained by disappointing Japanese preliminary Q4 GDP data, which showed the economy returned to growth but failed to meet expectations with GDP Q/Q at 0.1% (exp. 0.4%), and annualised GDP at 0.2% (exp. 1.6%). Hang Seng finished higher in a shortened trading session on Chinese New Year's Eve but with upside limited by tech weakness amid some confusion after the Pentagon added several companies including Baidu, Cosco, BYD, Huawei, Nio, SMIC, Tencent, and more to a list of Chinese firms aiding the military on Friday, but then withdrew the updated list shortly after it was posted. Furthermore, price action was also restricted by the closure of mainland markets and the absence of stock connect flows, which will remain shut for more than a week. US equity futures kept afloat in quiet trade amid the absence of drivers and participants. European equity futures indicate a mildly positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.1% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.4% on Friday. Asian Headlines Chinese President Xi called for the anchoring of economic growth around domestic demand as its main driver, in a speech during a key policy meeting late last year that was released on Sunday. China is to establish a permanent financial support framework to promote rural revitalisation and prevent a slide back into poverty, which represents a shift from transitional aid to long-term support. China’s market regulator summoned major online platform companies on Friday, including Alibaba, Douyin and Meituan, while it directed them to comply with laws and regulations, and rein in promotional practices, according to Bloomberg. US Secretary of State Rubio and Japanese Foreign Minister Motegi reaffirmed their commitment to deepen bilateral ties. Disney (DIS) sent a ‘cease and desist’ letter to ByteDance over Seedance 2.0 and alleged that ByteDance has been infringing on its IP to train and develop an AI video generation model without compensation, according to Axios. It was later reported that ByteDance said it would curb its AI video app following Disney's legal threats, according to the BBC. RBI tightened rules for loans provided to brokers and proprietary firms in an effort to reduce market speculation FX DXY eked slight gains in rangebound trade after a lack of major catalysts and with US participants away on Monday. EUR/USD was little changed amid the absence of any major macro catalysts and with light newsflow from the bloc, while comments from ECB President Lagarde and news that the ECB is to make its repo backstop available to other central banks across the world, did little to spur price action. GBP/USD held on to most of Friday's spoils but with price action contained by resistance around 1.3650 and following comments from BoE's Mann that the UK economy is sluggish and tepid, with consumers spending less due to being scarred by high inflation. USD/JPY edged higher and returned to above the 153.00 level in the aftermath of the weaker-than-expected preliminary Q4 GDP data for Japan. Antipodeans were mixed with little fresh macro drivers and a lack of tier-1 data from either side of the Tasman. Fixed Income 10yr UST futures traded little changed and held on to last week's spoils after returning above the 113.00 level in the aftermath of the softer US inflation data, while price action was contained to start the week by the closure of US cash markets for Washington's Birthday. Bund futures lacked demand in the absence of any major catalysts and with light newsflow from the bloc. 10yr JGB futures were marginally higher following disappointing preliminary GDP data for Q4, but with gains limited after failing to sustain a brief reclaim of the 132.00 level. Commodities Crude futures were rangebound amid light energy-specific newsflow from over the weekend and after last Friday's indecisive performance, where attention was on a source report that noted OPEC+ is leaning towards resuming oil output hikes from April, but with no decision made. Slovak PM Fico said he has information that the Druzhba pipeline has been fixed after damage in Ukraine, although he believes that supplies to Hungary and Slovakia have become a part of political blackmail. Spot gold took a breather after edging higher in the aftermath of the recent softer-than-expected US inflation data, with price action also contained by the holiday closures across Asia and North America. Copper futures were subdued, with their largest buyer away for more than a week due to the Chinese New Year/Spring Festival holiday. Texas venture-backed startup Hertha Metal vowed mass production of steel with 25% cost savings, which could reduce US reliance on imports. Geopolitics: Middle East US military is preparing for potential operations against Iran that could last for weeks if US President Trump orders an attack and the US fully expects Iran to retaliate, according to sources cited by Reuters. US President Trump told Israeli PM Netanyahu during a meeting in December that he would support Israel striking Iran’s ballistic missile program if the US and Iran are not able to reach a deal, according to CBS. Iran confirmed that indirect talks between the US and Iran will resume in Geneva on Tuesday under the mediation of Oman, while Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi left for Geneva on Sunday. Iranian diplomat said Iran is open to nuclear deal compromises if the US discusses lifting sanctions, while it was also reported that Iran said potential energy, mining and aircraft deals are on the table in talks with the US. Israel’s cabinet approved the proposal to register West Bank lands as ‘state property’, while Palestinians condemned the ‘de facto annexation’ which Peace Now said likely amounts to a ‘mega land grab’. Geopolitics: Ukraine US President Trump said on Friday that Ukrainian President Zelensky is going to have to get moving and that Russia wants to get a deal. US Secretary of State Rubio said they don’t know if Russia is serious about finding an end to the war in Ukraine and will continue to test it, while it was reported that he met with Ukrainian President Zelensky on security and deepening defence and economic partnerships. Ukrainian drones targeted Russia’s Taman seaport and fuel tanks in the Black Sea region. UK and European allies were reported on Friday to be weighing seizing Russian shadow fleet ships and tightening curbs on Russia's economy. French Foreign Minister Barrot said some G7 nations have expressed a willingness to proceed with a maritime services ban on Russian oil, which they hope to include in the 20th sanctions package that they are actively preparing. Geopolitics: Other European Commission President von der Leyen said that they face the very distinct threat of outside forces trying to weaken their union, while she added that mutual defence is not an optional task for the European Union; it is an obligation within their own treaty, and it is their collective commitment to stand by each other in case of aggression. Pentagon said the US military struck an alleged drug cartel boat in the Caribbean, which killed three people. DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnigt wrap I hope you all had a good weekend. To stay in Winter Olympics mood the family watched "Cool Runnings" last night. I haven't seen it for 32 years. Please don't tell anyone but I had a few tears in my eyes at the end. I blamed it on the hay fever that has now started. There will be a lot of tears out there in markets for other reasons at the moment. Just two weeks ago, the idea of AI-driven disruption still felt like an abstract, almost academic thought experiment—something we could safely revisit once we had clearer evidence of how AI would be deployed and integrated across the economy. Fast forward 14 days, and markets have wiped out well over a trillion dollars of global equity value on the fear that AI could fundamentally reshape business models and compress profitability across a wide range of industries, including software, legal services, IT consulting, wealth management, logistics, insurance, real estate brokerage and commercial real estate. Some of the sell off in “old economy” sectors feels overdone to me. But as I argued in our 2026 World Outlook back in November, the real challenge is that even by the end of this year we still won’t have enough evidence to identify the structural winners and losers with confidence. That leaves plenty of room for investors’ imaginations—both optimistic and pessimistic—to run wild. As such big sentiment swings will continue to be the order of the day. My instinct is that the reaction in things like commercial real estate, for example, has been particularly exaggerated. Markets seem to be extrapolating a scenario in which vast numbers of white collar workers are made redundant almost overnight, leading to a dramatic collapse in office demand. If that view turns out to be correct, we’ll be facing societal challenges far larger than anything currently being priced into equities. While trying to catch a falling knife may be too risky for many, beginning to cushion the descent could be sensible in many old economy sectors. Markets can’t sustain a disruption narrative across multiple sectors for months or quarters without concrete evidence — and that evidence is likely to take much longer to emerge. Fascinating times. As for this week, today is a US holiday but inflation will remain in the spotlight at a global level after Friday's slightly softer US CPI which helped contribute to a decent rates rally to end the week. Prints are due in the US (PCE - Friday), the UK (Wednesday), Canada (Tuesday) and Japan (Friday). Other economic highlights will include the FOMC minutes (Wednesday), Q4 GDP in the US (Friday), as well as the global flash PMIs (Friday). Earnings reports will feature Walmart (Thursday), Nestlé (Thursday) and BHP (today). It's the earnings calm before next week's Nvidia storm. In the US, this holiday shortened week (President's Day today) features a data calendar dominated by releases that were pushed back by last year’s government shutdown. The most consequential updates will land on Friday, when the advance estimate of Q4 GDP arrives alongside December’s personal income and consumption figures—key inputs for shaping expectations for the early part of this year. For markets assessing the underlying pulse of demand heading into 2026, private final sales to domestic purchasers (PFDP) will carry more weight than the headline GDP print. This indicator—closely monitored by Fed Chair Powell—is expected by our economists to slow to 2.0% from 2.9% in Q3, though risks appear tilted upward. One swing factor: Wednesday’s durable goods report, where modest gains outside of transportation could soften the deceleration. On the consumer front, real PCE growth is expected to cool to 2.5% after two quarters of outsized strength but should still signal ample momentum heading into the new year. Friday’s income and spending report will also offer the latest reading on core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Our economists expect another 0.4% monthly increase for December, lifting the year over year rate to 2.9%. Updated seasonal factors from last week’s CPI release suggest some mild downward pressure on inflation trends in the second half of 2025. Still, January’s CPI data, although softer than we anticipated, do not translate into equivalent relief for core PCE—in fact, our team currently sees another 0.4% gain for January's release (delayed until March 13th). Depending on the strength of medical services, airfare, and portfolio management components in the upcoming PPI report, a 0.5% monthly rise cannot be ruled out, which would push the year over year rate toward 3.1%. So don't get too excited about the softer CPI last week and the huge rates rally. Additional releases this week will help clarify whether recent severe winter weather has disrupted factory sector activity. January industrial production, due Wednesday, should benefit from a jump in utility output, while weather effects may weigh on the Empire State Survey tomorrow and the Philadelphia Fed survey on Thursday. Labor market data will also be in focus, particularly Thursday’s jobless claims, which line up with the survey week for the February employment report. As our economists have pointed out, private nonfarm job gains have averaged 103k over the past three months, slightly above the pace at this point in 2025 and matching the start of 2024. See their latest US employment chartbook here. This week will also feature a dense lineup of Federal Reserve speakers which you can see alongside all the key global data in the day-by-day week ahead calendar at the end as usual. Moving away from the US, inflation will also be in focus in Japan (Friday) and Canada (tomorrow). For the former, our Chief Japan Economist sees the January nationwide CPI showing a slowdown in both core CPI inflation ex. fresh food to 2.1% YoY (+2.4% in December) and core-core CPI inflation ex. fresh food and energy to 2.7% (+2.9%). Also important will be the global flash PMIs due on Friday as a health check on global growth. In Europe, the spotlight will be on UK inflation (Wednesday), with labour market data due tomorrow and retail sales on Friday. Our UK economist expects headline CPI inflation to drop to 3.0% YoY (3.4% in December) and core CPI also landing at 3.0% YoY (3.2% YoY). See more in his full preview here. In terms of key rate decisions, the RBNZ are expected to remain on hold on Wednesday. Finally, the Munich Security Conference wrapped up over the weekend, where key topics included Ukraine, Russia, and the fate of Greenland. And while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s speech was nothing like Vice President JD Vance’s at last year’s conference, which triggered a “wake-up” call for European leaders, Rubio reiterated the administration’s view that Europe needed to leave behind its focus on energy policies, trade and mass migration. Recapping last week now, the tech volatility that has dogged markets since the start of the month broadened into a far more indiscriminate sell-off. The trough came on Thursday, marked by a sharp drop in software stocks, but the weakness extended well beyond tech. Companies across wealth management, real estate and financials suffered double digit declines, underscoring how widespread the pullback has become. Market breadth confirmed this shift as the equal weighted S&P 500 fell -1.37% on Thursday, though it managed to finish the week up +0.29% (+1.04% on Friday). Ultimately, the sell-off left the major US indices on the back foot: the S&P 500 slipped -1.39% (+0.05% on Friday), the Nasdaq lost -2.10% (-0.22% on Friday), and the Magnificent 7 slid -3.24% (-1.11% on Friday). Although the AI scare dominated sentiment, a heavy slate of US data also shaped the market narrative. Early in the week, softer prints—including flat December retail sales, a dovish Q4 Employment Cost Index, and slower Q4 growth expectations from the Atlanta Fed—pushed Treasury yields lower across the curve. That picture shifted midweek after a stronger than expected January jobs report, which delivered the largest gain in nonfarm payrolls (+130k vs. +65k expected) since December 2024 and reinforced confidence that the US economy carried solid momentum into 2026. Then on Friday, January CPI came in below expectations, adding another dovish note. Although the data offered mixed signals at times, the overall takeaway was sufficiently dovish for traders to increase the number of expected rate cuts by December 2026 to 63.4bps (+7.7bps on the week). This helped drive the largest weekly drop in the 10 year Treasury yield since August 2025, down -15.8bps (-5.0bps on Friday) to 4.05%. The 2 year yield also moved sharply lower, falling -8.9bps to 3.41% (-4.8bps on Friday), its lowest level since 2022. European markets, meanwhile, delivered a comparatively resilient performance. The STOXX 600 (+0.09%, -0.13% Friday), DAX (+0.78%, +0.25% Friday) and FTSE 100 (+0.74%, +0.42% Friday) all posted modest gains for the week. European sovereign bonds rallied as well, with the 10 year bund yield dropping -8.7bps—its steepest weekly decline since April 2025. That move was outpaced by gilts, which fell -9.8bps (-3.6bps on Friday) despite a sharp early week sell-off triggered by renewed questions surrounding Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s position. Elsewhere, performance was mixed. Brent crude edged down -0.44% (+0.34% on Friday), while gold extended its upward run, rising +1.56% (+2.43% on Friday). Will London’s half term week finally give us a quiet week in 2026? You’d probably have to guess at ‘unlikely’. Tyler Durden Mon, 02/16/2026 - 09:40

France plans to double jail terms for owners and operators of ships that fail to fly the correct flag or refuse to comply with orders to stop, in a move aimed at vessels suspected of being part of Russia's 'shadow fleet'.

The EU is exploring innovative methods to deplete Russia's war chest, with the EU foreign policy chief advocating for increased pressure and concerted action against Russia's 'shadow fleet'.

The ongoing war against Iran has given new life to the 'shadow fleet' of ships, which had previously faced intense pressure from US and European measures aimed at sanctioning Russia, Iran, and Venezuela.

Nearly 40 "shadow fleet" tankers are stuck in the Gulf of Finland near Russia's Ust-Luga oil port, with the Estonian Navy warning of a significant marine pollution risk.

The UK has authorized its military to board Russian shadow fleet tankers, a move likely to escalate tensions.

The Iran conflict has offered the illicit oil trade a lifeline — while the easing of US sanctions widens a transatlantic rift

The Russian tanker Deyna, part of the so-called shadow fleet, has been detained by the French military and arrived at Marseille-Fos port for further judicial investigation.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged allies to exert stronger pressure on Russia, emphasizing the need for effective sanctions against Russia's 'shadow fleet' and discussing the maintenance of elections and potential territorial concessions ahead of peace talks with the US.

The French navy has boarded and seized a Russian oil tanker in the Mediterranean Sea, suspected of being part of a 'shadow fleet,' a move the French president stated is intended to support Ukraine.

The shadow fleet of tankers carrying sanctioned Iranian oil and operating off the coasts of Singapore and Malaysia could become targets of the US and other actors as part of the Middle East war, say…

A Russian gas tanker, part of a 'shadow fleet,' has been drifting crewless in the Mediterranean Sea for over two weeks with a large hole, which Moscow claims was caused by a Ukrainian attack.

Putin ally Patrushev says Moscow could deploy ‘mobile firing groups’ after series of suspected Ukrainian attacks on ships

A damaged Russian tanker from the 'shadow fleet' is drifting in the Mediterranean Sea, posing an ecological threat, prompting nine European countries to call for swift action from EU institutions.

Journalists from Estonia and Finland claim to have identified 'the most dangerous tanker in the Baltic Sea' after investigating Russia's shadow fleet vessels and cataloging dozens of risk factors.

French President Emmanuel Macron has called on Europe to intensify pressure on Russia's 'shadow fleet,' likely referring to vessels used to circumvent sanctions and transport oil.

A CBC News analysis reveals a global enforcement crackdown on 'shadow fleets' of ships, often flying false flags, that are used to skirt international sanctions, with seizures and detentions skyrocketing.

Swedish authorities have stopped the tanker "Sea Owl I" on suspicion that it is a vessel belonging to Russia's shadow fleet, according to the Swedish prosecutor's office.

The UK and Ireland have pledged to conduct joint exercises to protect undersea cables from potential threats posed by Russian spy ships. This update to their defense and security pact aims to tackle hostile threats and crack down on the 'shadow fleet' operating in the region.

The Swedish Coast Guard boarded a 228-meter-long tanker, suspected of being part of a 'shadow fleet,' outside Trelleborg on Thursday evening.

Russia intends to increase the number of oil tankers sailing under its flag, a move prompted by the growing number of detentions of vessels from its shadow fleet.

Iran has threatened to destroy any ships, including oil tankers, that pass through – but some vessels are still transiting the strait

A report indicates that Russian military personnel are now accompanying a 'shadow fleet' in the Baltic Sea, reportedly to prevent crews from cooperating with Western authorities and for deterrence.

Ewa Galica from 'Superwizjer' was among the laureates of the second edition of the Wirtuale awards. They are presented by the portal wirtualnemedia.pl. Statuettes were awarded this year in 15 categories.

The Netherlands is developing measures to stop Russia's shadow fleet of oil tankers, which Moscow has used to circumvent Western restrictions on its energy sector imposed since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The Brussels Times reports on how Belgium has taken a firm stance against Russia's 'shadow fleet' operations.

Russia has accused Ukraine of carrying out the first attack on its 'shadow fleet' of LNG tankers, escalating tensions in the ongoing conflict.

John Michael Ormerod was added to UK sanctions lists as part of attempts to disrupt Russia’s shadow fleet of vessels

Belgian authorities have seized a Russian tanker suspected of being part of a 'shadow fleet', indicating ongoing international efforts to enforce sanctions against Russia.

The Belgian federal prosecutor's office has launched an investigation into the oil tanker Ethera. The probe aims to determine if the vessel breached the Belgian Shipping Code, potentially related to sanctions or illicit activities.

Belgium has seized the tanker Etera, which is on the European Union's sanctions list and is believed to be part of Russia's 'shadow fleet', a move Moscow has denounced as 'piracy'.

Belgian forces have seized a Russian 'shadow fleet' tanker in the North Sea.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha welcomed Belgium's seizure of a Russian shadow fleet tanker and called on other countries to follow its example in targeting Russia's shadow fleet.

Belgium's special forces, assisted by France, boarded and seized an oil tanker suspected of being part of Russia's 'shadow fleet,' used to circumvent Western sanctions over the war in Ukraine.

The Belgian army, with assistance from France, boarded an oil tanker belonging to Russia's shadow fleet overnight, according to Defense Minister Francken.

French prosecutors in Brest have demanded a one-year prison sentence and a 150,000-euro fine for the Chinese captain of the oil tanker Boracay, as part of France's crackdown on Russia's 'shadow fleet' for failing to comply with regulations.

Canada announced a new C$300 million ($220 million) military assistance package for Ukraine and imposed sanctions on 100 vessels linked to Russia's 'shadow fleet', reinforcing its support for Ukraine.

On the fourth anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Australia announced the introduction of sanctions against 180 individuals, legal entities, and vessels linked to Russia – the largest package of restrictions since February 2022.

Two employees of a Russian private security company were on the tanker, confiscated by France in September and allegedly belonging to Russia's so-called shadow fleet, a news agency reported on Monday.

The United States has initiated its most comprehensive campaign to date against the 'shadow fleet,' a network of vessels engaged in smuggling illegal oil, particularly from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela.

The U.S. Is Hunting the Shadow Fleet. This Is What It’s Up Against.  The Wall Street Journal

Danish Navy Intercepts, Detains Iran-Flagged Cargo Ship Denmark detained a container vessel previously blacklisted by Washington under last year's sweeping Iran sanctions on Thursday, amid suspicions it was operating under a false flag. The Nora was seized after authorities determined it was allegedly sailing under the flag of Comoros without authorization. The ship is now anchored in Danish waters pending further investigation, according to reports. It actually appears to be a box ship transporting containers at the time it was intercepted. It raised the Iranian flag under deeply suspicious circumstances, as a patrol boat eyed the vessel, Danish officials say. AFP via Getty Images The Danish Maritime Authority believes it to be part of Iran's so-called shadow fleet of tankers. "The Danish Maritime Authority reports that the vessel has been detained due to incorrect registration," the agency said. Several months ago the vessel went through a name change, which Washington officials believe was in order to keep shipping sanctioned Iranian and Russian exports, and to evade European suspicions while traversing regional waters. The vessel is said to currently anchored east of Albaek in the northernmost part of Jutland. It's possible the vessel will eventually be released, as the Danish government explained the ship will be detained until Iran confirms to the agency that the container ship is legitimately registered and certified. According to more details via a maritime monitoring publication: Denmark’s TV 2 reports the vessel had gone dark while it was in St. Petersburg, Russia, in mid-January and then sailed west into the Baltic and reached Skagen, where it stopped on January 22. The following day, it anchored less than 20 miles east of Aalbaek, Denmark, where it has remained for the past 28 days. A Danish patrol ship was spotted near the vessel along with a Danish Armed Forces sea drone. The Danish Maritime Authority reports it questioned the vessel’s registry in Comoros and was informed by the authorities that the ship was “not correctly registered.” Apparently, when they questioned the vessel further, it suddenly raised an Iranian flag, prompting the detention. Danish outlet TV 2 further reports that the Cerus/Nora had transited Danish waters at least 10 times over the past year during repeated voyages to Saint Petersburg - and each time the vessel allegedly went dark, ceasing transmission of its position data as it neared Russian waters. BREAKING: Danish authorities have detained the 226-meter container ship Nora, now flying the Iranian flag, east of Aalbæk, after it was found not properly registered with its claimed flag state. Previously sailing under the Comorian flag, the vessel suddenly changed its… pic.twitter.com/vjh2qaOJOm February 19, 2026 The Trump administration is meanwhile contemplating whether to escalate its military pressure on Iran by beginning to directly seize Iranian oil exports. This would be seen by Tehran as an immediate act of war. Tyler Durden Fri, 02/20/2026 - 02:45

China's unprecedented oil stockpiling has raised questions about whether Beijing is preparing for war, with analysts noting a significant increase in reserves over recent years.

India has seized tankers belonging to the 'shadow fleet' that are under sanctions, a move that comes amidst a thawing of trade relations with the U.S.

India Seizes Sanctioned Shadow Fleet Tankers Amid Trade Thaw With U.S.  The Wall Street Journal

India has seized sanctioned shadow fleet tankers, a move that comes amid a thawing of trade relations with the United States.

India Seizes Sanctioned Shadow Fleet Tankers Amid Trade Thaw With U.S.  The Wall Street Journal

Official says blockade on ‘shadow fleet’ would be illegal, and raises prospect of retaliation against European vessels Europe live – latest updates A senior Russian official has said Moscow could deploy its navy to protect Russian-linked vessels from potential European seizures, raising the prospect of retaliatory action against European shipping as pressure on the Kremlin’s so-called shadow fleet intensifies. Nikolai Patrushev, a former FSB director who heads Russia’s maritime board, said on Tuesday that the country’s navy should be ready to counter what he described as “western piracy”. Continue reading...

The UK and its European allies are reportedly exploring options to seize ships belonging to Russia's 'shadow fleet' as part of ongoing measures.