A sunny Sunday is forecast for Bulgaria, though the eastern part of the country and areas along the Danube and Black Sea coast will experience cloudy and foggy conditions in the morning, with visibility improving in the afternoon.

Concerns about shipping safety in the Black Sea are escalating after a Greek-flagged tanker was attacked by an 'unknown object,' though fortunately, no crew members were injured. The incident highlights ongoing risks in the region.

Romania's OMV Petrom is extending its exposure in the Black Sea by acquiring a 25% stake in the Khan Tervel gas block in the Bulgarian sector, joining a consortium exploring the offshore perimeter.

The Economist Romania Government Roundtable will focus on Europe's energy security, geopolitical risks from Middle East tensions, regional energy corridors, and the Black Sea's role in diversifying resources.

Russia has accused Ukraine of attacking facilities linked to its Black Sea gas pipelines, escalating tensions over energy infrastructure.

Turkish President Erdogan stated that the war in the Middle East should not jeopardize peace efforts and emphasized the critical importance of navigation security in the Black Sea for Turkey.

Slovakia is forecast to start the work week with clear and unusually warm weather, influenced by a large high-pressure system moving from Ukraine over the Black Sea.

Research by Greek scientists indicates a slow but profound change occurring in the waters connecting the Black Sea to the Aegean Sea. This transformation, not visible to the naked eye, is clearly reflected in scientific data from recent decades.

Following overnight frosts, Saturday is expected to be significantly warm as a high-pressure system moves over the Black Sea region.

Varna, Bulgaria's third-largest city and known as its 'summer capital,' is gaining recognition as a year-round destination, particularly ideal for visits in spring.

Russian Ka-27 helicopter destroyed over Black Sea, Ukraine's Navy says  The Kyiv Independent

The Ukrainian Navy reported the destruction of a Russian Ka-27 anti-submarine helicopter over the Black Sea, following a similar attack in February.

Russian forces have hit a civilian ship sailing under the Panamanian flag in the Black Sea, resulting in injuries among the crew.

3 Russian ships hit, 3 sailors killed in Ukrainian strike on Black Sea port, SBU source says  The Kyiv Independent

Romania's Constitutional Court (CCR) is set to discuss a challenge filed by President Nicușor Dan regarding a law that allows local authorities to receive up to 20% of tourist beaches on the Black Sea for free.

Ukraine has reportedly attacked an oil terminal in the port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea in southern Russia.

Ukraine conducted large-scale drone attacks in Russia's Krasnodar region and over the Black Sea, with Russia claiming to have intercepted over 130 drones.

Bulgaria remains one of the most consistently affordable countries on the continent. Whether you are looking for the cheapest skiing in Europe (Bansko) or sun-drenched Black Sea resorts, Bulgaria delivers. The post Most affordable countries in Europe (2026) appeared first on Vanguard News.

Alexei Navalny's team claims that over 71 million euros (billions of rubles) from the 'Putin's Palace' project on the Black Sea coast were transferred to foundations linked to a woman believed to be the mother of Putin's children.

A Romanian government official, Cristian Bușoi, stated that gas prices are unlikely to significantly decrease with the start of Black Sea gas production next year, citing the single European market, contradicting earlier claims.

Photos of the Russian Black Sea Fleet's medium reconnaissance ship Ivan Khurs, which was attacked by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 2024, have appeared online.

US President Donald Trump's administration took an unusual step and warned the Ukrainian authorities that Kyiv's strikes on Russia's Black Sea oil infrastructure facility at the end of last year

Russian President Vladimir Putin claims Russia has intelligence indicating preparations for possible sabotage of the TurkStream and Blue Stream gas pipelines in the Black Sea, linking these threats to attempts to disrupt Russian energy infrastructure.

Lukoil Overseas Atash BV, a subsidiary of the Russian group Lukoil, has sued the Romanian state after announcing its withdrawal from the Trident offshore natural gas project in the Black Sea, citing specific reasons.

Naval forces specialists are continuing their work to investigate a fishing vessel that sank in the Black Sea, with an inspection carried out on Monday, February 23.

Anti-drone netting covering tanks at an oil depot in Velikiye Luki, Russia. Satellite image ©2026 Vantor Ukraine carried out a long-range drone attack against a Russian oil depot on Wednesday night. A Ukrainian security source said anti-drone netting at the facility failed to stop the attack. Anti-drone netting has emerged as a common makeshift defense tactic on and off the battlefield. Ukrainian drones struck a Russian oil depot overnight, breaking through the netting that had been installed earlier to protect the site from such attacks, a security official told Business Insider on Thursday. Long-range Ukrainian drones struck an oil depot in Velikiye Luki, a city in western Russia's Pskov region, a source in the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said. They were only authorized to speak on the condition of anonymity to discuss military operations. The source said protective anti-drone nets had been stretched above fuel tanks at the oil depot. The facility belongs to the company Pskovnefteproduct and is located nearly 500 kilometers (310 miles) from the Ukrainian border. The nets were unable to prevent the strike from doing damage, the source added. Satellite imagery captured in December by US spatial intelligence firm Vantor and analyzed by Business Insider, shows what appears to be anti-drone netting covering roughly 15 tanks at the depot in Velikiye Luki. Anti-drone netting is seen in this December 14, 2025, image of storage tanks at Velikiye Luki. Satellite image ©2026 Vantor Anti-drone netting covering tanks at an oil depot in Velikiye Luki, Russia. Satellite image ©2026 Vantor Several explosions and a large fire were reported at the oil facility, the source said, citing local channels on the Telegram messaging app. Video footage shared on social media shows a massive blaze burning through a structure resembling anti-drone netting. This kind of netting has been spotted at other oil facilities in Russia in recent months. The tactic underscores how the country is turning to crude-looking, improvised defenses to protect energy infrastructure from ongoing Ukrainian attacks. "Vietnam, run!" - overnight, drones from the Special Operations Center "Alpha" of the Security Service of Ukraine successfully struck the Velikolukskaya oil depot. A large fire broke out at the site. Anti-drone nets had been stretched over the fuel storage tanks, but they did not… pic.twitter.com/bLBxuHNxtm — WarTranslated (@wartranslated) February 19, 2026 Concerns over the high drone saturation have led to similar measures on the battlefield. Anti-drone netting is common near the front lines. Ukrainian soldiers are using this material to cover critical logistics routes. And both militaries have added cage-like fencing to their armored vehicles to protect against drones. Additionally, Russia has also installed makeshift defenses, such as large, floating barriers, to protect its ports from the Ukrainian naval drones that have wreaked havoc on its Black Sea Fleet. The Ukrainian attack on Wednesday night marked Kyiv's latest deep-strike drone operation against the vast Russian energy sector, a major source of revenue that fuels Moscow's ongoing war efforts. "The SBU continues to work methodically on facilities that provide the Russian army with fuel," the security source said in a translated statement. "The destruction of oil depots directly affects the enemy's ability to conduct combat operations, advance and transfer reserves. Such operations are an element of the systematic weakening of the military potential of the Russian Federation," they added. Anti-drone netting has become increasingly common near the front lines in Ukraine. Dmytro Smolienko/Ukrinform/NurPhoto via Getty Images Neither Russia's defense ministry nor its US embassy responded to a request for comment on the attack. Moscow said its air defenses shot down roughly 300 Ukrainian drones over the past 24 hours. Since last August, Ukraine has been intensifying its long-range drone attacks on Russia's energy sector, targeting oil refineries, terminals, tankers, and platforms at sea. Kyiv has described the deep-strike campaign as its way of imposing "long-range sanctions" on Moscow. Many of these attacks — at least four in the past week, including the most recent strike — have been carried out by the SBU's Alpha group, an elite unit considered to be among the best of Ukraine's special forces. Its personnel have also been involved in ground operations. Meanwhile, Russia has significantly stepped up its missile and drone strikes against Ukraine's energy infrastructure this winter compared to previous years of the war. Since October, Ukrainian energy facilities have been the main target of Russian barrages, Britain's defense ministry said on Thursday. Russia has launched more than 20,000 drones, and its aircraft have fired over 300 missiles, "in attempts to systematically destroy Ukraine's electrical grid and heat generation capacity," the ministry said in an intelligence update. Read the original article on Business Insider

A Venezuelan-Like Oil Blockade Against Iran Could Enable The US To Divide-And-Rule RIC Authored by Andrew Korybko, The cascading consequences of such a blockade, which might not ultimately be imposed due it entailing a high risk of war with Iran, could simultaneously weaken Russia, India, and China. The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump 2.0 is considering imposing a Venezuelan-like oil blockade against Iran. It hasn’t yet done so due to concerns that Iran might attack the US’ regional military assets and/or seize its Gulf allies’ oil tankers, with either scenario destabilizing the global oil market and spiking the risk of war, so it might never ultimately happen. If the US were to successfully impose such a blockade, however, then it might be able to adroitly divide-and-rule Russia, India, and China (RIC). “The US Wants To Replicate The Venezuelan Model In Iran” by coercing Iran into subordinating itself and its energy industry to the US. The “Trump Doctrine”, which is shaped by Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge Colby’s “Strategy of Denial”, seeks to deny strategic resources to the US’ rivals. Accordingly, it has an interest in cutting off China’s average import of 1.38 million barrels of Iranian oil per day last year, which could hit its economy hard if they’re not replaced (and that might be difficult). These exports could then be redirected to India, thus enabling India to more than replace its average import of 1 million barrels per day of Russian oil last month, with the revenue placed in an escrow account per the Venezuelan precedent for release to Iran if it cuts a nuclear and missile deal with the US. Through these means, India could zero out its import of Russian oil while raising the US’ role over its energy security exactly as Trump 2.0 wants, with the end result dealing incredible harm to RIC. Russia’s budgetary revenue from such sales would be reduced and could only realistically be replaced in part through more sales to China, though that might not be as easy as it sounds. The UK is preparing a campaign to seize Russia’s “shadow fleet” in the English Channel after being emboldened by the US’ seizure of a Russian-flagged oil tanker near its coast. If Russia doesn’t impose unacceptable costs on the UK, and it didn’t impose any on the US for doing this, then its Baltic Sea tankers might never reach China. Those from the Black Sea might not reach it either if the UK allies with Greece and Cyprus to cut off Russia’s “shadow fleet” from that vector too. Pipeline exports, which have limits to how much they can be scaled, would then be the only means for replacing part of Russia’s lost oil exports to India with China apart from relatively minimal tanker exports from the Far East. The resultant economic pressure on Russia and China might make them susceptible to lopsided deals with the US on Ukraine and trade. As for India, it already entered into a partially lopsided deal with the US as regards the informal quid pro quo of it agreeing to zero out its import of Russian oil in exchange for their trade deal, and the US’ growing influence over India’s energy security could curtail its hard-earned strategic autonomy. This might then be leveraged for coercing a reduction in India’s purchase of Chinese goods and services so as to place more pressure on the People’s Republic to agree to its own lopsided trade deal with the US. This worst-case scenario of the US’ dividing-and-ruling RIC can be averted by Iran deterring or breaking a US blockade on its oil in parallel with Russia doing the same with respect to any British one against its “shadow fleet”. These options require immense political will since they entail the potential cost of a hot war breaking out between Great Powers so it’s unclear whether they’ll be implemented, but likewise, so too might the US and UK ultimately back off from their possible blockades for the same reason. Tyler Durden Mon, 02/16/2026 - 20:05

Ukrainian drone strikes have caused fires at a Russian Black Sea port, while Moscow claims new battlefield gains in eastern Ukraine, with its army chief reporting the seizure of a dozen villages in February.

Ukraine's military intelligence agency, HUR, announced on Saturday that it attacked and damaged two Russian army ships in the Black Sea, rendering a railway ferry inoperable and damaging another vessel.

Maran Tankers Management Inc., the managing company of a Greek-flagged vessel, issued a statement detailing how and where their ship was struck in the Black Sea.

Premier Ilie Bolojan discussed the possibility of Romania storing natural gas in Ukraine, highlighting mutual benefits through energy network interconnection, especially in the context of exploiting Neptun Deep resources in the Black Sea.

Moldova will host the third edition of the Black Sea Security Conference on March 23, 2026, under the auspices of the 'International Crimea Platform'.

Romanian oil company OMV Petrom is expanding its oil and gas exploration activities in the Bulgarian Black Sea, acquiring a 25% stake in the 'Han Tervel' offshore block alongside operator Shell, in addition to its existing work in the 'Han Asparuh' block.

The Russians still have the main force of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in the Black Sea, as well as five surface and two submarine missile carriers.

Slovakia is experiencing an exceptionally warm March day, with temperatures influenced by a high-pressure system moving from the Carpathian region towards the Black Sea.

Ukraine's General Staff has confirmed that two frigates of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, the Admiral Essen and Admiral Makarov, were damaged in a strike on the naval base in Novorossiysk.

Romanian President Nicușor Dan announced discussions with the Polish President on common military acquisitions, the SAFE program, and establishing a security hub in the Black Sea region, highlighting shared visions.

This article discusses the Pontic-Armenian Federation, an attempt by Pontic Greeks and Armenians to establish a joint state in the Black Sea region in 1919, following World War I.

The Ukrainian Navy reported the destruction of a Russian Ka-27 shipborne anti-submarine helicopter over the Black Sea.

Ukraine war latest: 3 Russian ships hit, 3 sailors killed in Ukrainian strike on Black Sea port, SBU source says  The Kyiv Independent

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz met with U.S. President Donald Trump, using a map to explain why Ukraine's front line must not shift westward and emphasizing the importance of Black Sea access.

US Ambassador Darryl Nirenberg met with Romanian Foreign Minister Oana Ţoiu to discuss strengthening the strategic partnership between the two countries, with the ambassador appreciating Romania's leadership role in Black Sea security.

The Astana Times provides news and information from Kazakhstan and around the world. ALMATY – Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy confirmed that an incident at the Sheskharis oil loading terminal in…

A Russian Black Sea port in Novorossiysk was reportedly attacked, though details on the nature and perpetrators of the attack are not immediately clear.

Agents of the Atesh partisan movement have recorded the redeployment of boats from the 102nd Special Purpose Detachment of Russia's Black Sea Fleet from their permanent base in Kostiantynivska Bay to Southern Bay in temporarily occupied Sevastopol.

For four years, Romania has been tasked with countering Russian threats in the Black Sea, such as drifting mines and military vessels near critical infrastructure. The article describes how a 'brain' designed in Romania for warships could defend the Black Sea.

An analysis suggests that Ukraine and its Western allies might attempt to blow up Russia's Black Sea pipelines to derail peace talks and provoke Russia.

Romania is expected to become the European Union's largest natural gas producer by 2027, with gas from its offshore Neptune Deep project in the Black Sea attracting interest from countries like Hungary and Germany.

As Russia rained missiles on Ukrainian cities last fall, US issued warning to Kyiv over Black Sea drone strike, ambassador says  The Kyiv Independent

Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed Tuesday that Ukraine is preparing strikes on the TurkStream and Blue Stream gas pipelines in the Black Sea, saying the threat emerged as Mo...

A Turkish man on the Black Sea coast, Şaban Oskay, brought his passion for classic cars into his office by transforming a scrapped 1967 Mercedes into a work desk. Oskay, who has b...

Ukrainian Defense Forces struck an area in temporarily occupied Crimea where the missile division of the Russian Black Sea Fleet's 15th Separate Coastal Missile Brigade, armed with K-300P Bastion-P coastal defence missile system, was concentrated.

Ukrainian forces have reportedly used long-range drones to strike a Russian explosive materials plant 1,000 miles away and a major Black Sea oil terminal.

Futures, Global Markets Rise With US Markets Closed For President's Day Stocks gained, bitcoin tumbled and bonds steadied after Friday's cool CPI data reinforced expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates on multiple occasions this year. With US markets closed for the Presidents’ Day holiday and mainland China’s markets closed for Lunar New Year holidays, trading was muted on Monday. As of 9:00am ET, futures on the S&P 500 added 0.4% and Europe’s Stoxx 600 index rose 0.4% as banking shares rebounded from a sharp decline last week. German bunds and Treasury futures were steady after US yields touched the lowest since December on Friday. The path of US interest rates remains in focus following Friday’s slower-than-expected US inflation print as traders fully price a Fed cut in July and the strong chance of a move in June.   “The backdrop for equities is positive post CPI,” said Andrea Gabellone, head of global equities at KBC Securities. At the same time, there could be “more dispersion ahead as sentiment around key AI-exposed sectors is still very critical,” he added.  That sentiment was echoed by other strategists seeking to distinguish between AI losers and winners. A JPMorgan Chase & Co. team led by Mislav Matejka urged caution on stocks at risk of AI-driven “cannibalization,” including software, business services and media companies. Meanwhile, banks are developing baskets to capitalize on the divergence: as we first reported last Thursday, Goldman launched a new basket of software stocks that goes long firms that will benefit from AI adoption, while shorting the companies whose workflows could be replaced. With AI disruption rippling through markets, a lot will come down to earnings resilience, in particular in the US.  “When you look at the current earnings season, the companies are showing 13% of growth,” Nataliia Lipikhina, head of EMEA equity strategy at JPMorgan, told Bloomberg TV. “Overall, this is the reason why we continue to be positive on the S&P.” Later this week, traders will be watching for ADP private payrolls numbers on Tuesday and the minutes from the Fed’s January meeting on Wednesday for a fresh read on the economy. European stocks gained with bank shares rebounding, after posting their biggest weekly decline since April on worries about disruption from artificial intelligence. The basic resources sector lags, with Norsk Hydro among Europe’s worst performers as both Goldman Sachs and RBC downgrade the stock. Stoxx 600 rises 0.4% to 620.26 with 253 members down, 336 up, and 11 unchanged. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:  NatWest shares rise as much as 4%, the most since October, as Citi analyst Andrew Coombs raises his price target on the UK bank to a Street-high. Seraphim Space shares rise as much as 9.2%, briefly hitting a new all-time high, after the space tech investment firm said the valuations of its four largest holdings increased over the final months of 2025. AECI shares rally as much as 6.1%, the most since July, after the South African commercial-explosives maker shared improved 2025 headline earnings per share guidance. Orsted shares rise as much as 3.8% after analysts at Kepler raise the recommendation to buy from hold over the Danish renewable energy firm’s outlook, despite ongoing uncertainty for the industry in the US. Norsk Hydro shares fall as much as 4.4%, extending Friday’s 5.9% earnings-triggered drop, after being downgraded at Goldman Sachs and RBC over disappointments and pricing pressures in the Norwegian aluminum company’s downstream business. Galderma shares slip as much as 2.2% after naming Luigi La Corte as its new chief financial officer following the news back in July that Thomas Dittrich was departing. Pinewood Technologies shares tumble as much as 32%, the most since April 2024, after Apax Partners said on Friday it will not proceed with a possible cash offer for the car dealership software provider. FlatexDEGIRO shares drop as much as 7.2% after BNP Paribas downgraded the online brokerage firm to neutral from outperform, saying the price reflects too much optimism about its market position in Germany. Maurel & Prom shares slump as much as 12%, pulling back after ending last week at a 2015-high, after announcing it is not currently authorized to resume oil and gas operations in Venezuela. Barratt Redrow shares fall as much as 3.7%, leading a drop in British homebuilders after Rightmove said house prices are stalling. Asian stocks slipped for a second day, led by declines in Japan as traders booked profits after last week’s post-election rally. Several markets were closed or held shortened trading sessions for the Lunar New Year holiday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was down 0.1%. Japan’s Topix Index fell 0.8%, with Mizuho Financial Group Inc. and Toyota Motor Corp. among the companies contributing to the index’s losses.In Hong Kong, AI model developer Minimax Group Inc. surged as much as 30% to more than four times its original listing price, while competitor Knowledge Atlas JSC Ltd. ended 4.7% higher. The market will be closed until Thursday. As investors across the region begin to reevaluate their bets on its artificial-intelligence-driven rally, traders in Japan cashed in gains driven by expectations of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s proactive spending policies last week.Trading in Singapore ended early Monday and will be shut until Wednesday. Equity markets in mainland China, South Korea, Indonesia and Vietnam were closed.  In FX, the yen is the notable mover in currencies, weakening 0.5% against the dollar and pushing USD/JPY back above 153. The offshore yuan is one of the better performers against the greenback. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.1%. There is no cash trading in Treasuries due to the Presidents’ Day holiday. European government bonds are little changed In commdities, gold dipped below $5,000 an ounce, as traders booked profits from a gain in the previous session. Bitcoin tried anf ailed to stage a modest rebound; it last traded around $68,275 after posting its fourth consecutive weekly loss, with the cryptocurrency struggling to find clear direction as a weekend rally fizzled once the momentum ignition algos emerged.  WTI crude futures tread water near $62.90 a barrel.  Top Headlines President Trump said there will be voter ID rules in the mid-term elections this year, whether Congress approves it or not, and they will present a legal argument in an Executive Order. Furthermore, Trump said he has searched the depths of legal arguments not yet articulated nor vetted on this subject, and they will be presenting an irrefutable one in the very near future. Iran says potential energy, mining and aircraft deals on table in talks with US: RTRS Pentagon threatened to cut its ties with Anthropic over the company’s insistence that some limitations are kept on how the military uses its AI models: RTRS UK eyes rapid ban on social media for under 16s, curbs to AI chatbots: RTRS Rampant AI Demand for Memory Is Fueling a Growing Chip Crisis: BBG Warner Bros. Weighs Reopening Sale Negotiations With Paramount: BBG Companies Are Replacing CEOs in Record Numbers—and They’re Getting Younger: WSJ Europe aims to rely less on US defence after Trump's Greenland push: RTRS DOJ Tells Lawmakers Epstein File Redactions Complied With LawL BBG For College Applicants, Pressure to Make Summers Count Has Gotten Even Worse: WSJ Fed's Goolsbee (2027 voter) said on Friday that they are still seeing pretty high services inflation, and he hopes they have seen the peak impact of tariffs, while he added that the job market has been steady, with only modest cooling.  The Break Is Over. Companies Are Jacking Up Prices Again: WSJ Trade/Tariffs USTR Greer said the US and Ecuador expect to sign a trade agreement in the coming weeks. China will waive import value-added taxes on selected seeds, genetic resources, and police dogs through to 2030 to increase agricultural competitiveness and breeding capacity. It was also reported that China will grant zero-tariff access to 53 African nations from May 1st, according to Bloomberg. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his French and German counterparts that China and the EU are partners, not rivals, while he added that China and the EU should manage differences, deepen practical cooperation and work together on global challenges. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks began the week in the green but with gains limited following a lack of major fresh catalysts from over the weekend and amid thinned conditions owing to holiday closures in the region and North America. ASX 200 traded marginally higher with upside led by tech, although gains are capped by underperformance in the utilities, mining, materials and resources sectors, while participants also digested a slew of earnings releases. Nikkei 225 traded indecisively with the index constrained by disappointing Japanese preliminary Q4 GDP data, which showed the economy returned to growth but failed to meet expectations with GDP Q/Q at 0.1% (exp. 0.4%), and annualised GDP at 0.2% (exp. 1.6%). Hang Seng finished higher in a shortened trading session on Chinese New Year's Eve but with upside limited by tech weakness amid some confusion after the Pentagon added several companies including Baidu, Cosco, BYD, Huawei, Nio, SMIC, Tencent, and more to a list of Chinese firms aiding the military on Friday, but then withdrew the updated list shortly after it was posted. Furthermore, price action was also restricted by the closure of mainland markets and the absence of stock connect flows, which will remain shut for more than a week. US equity futures kept afloat in quiet trade amid the absence of drivers and participants. European equity futures indicate a mildly positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.1% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.4% on Friday. Asian Headlines Chinese President Xi called for the anchoring of economic growth around domestic demand as its main driver, in a speech during a key policy meeting late last year that was released on Sunday. China is to establish a permanent financial support framework to promote rural revitalisation and prevent a slide back into poverty, which represents a shift from transitional aid to long-term support. China’s market regulator summoned major online platform companies on Friday, including Alibaba, Douyin and Meituan, while it directed them to comply with laws and regulations, and rein in promotional practices, according to Bloomberg. US Secretary of State Rubio and Japanese Foreign Minister Motegi reaffirmed their commitment to deepen bilateral ties. Disney (DIS) sent a ‘cease and desist’ letter to ByteDance over Seedance 2.0 and alleged that ByteDance has been infringing on its IP to train and develop an AI video generation model without compensation, according to Axios. It was later reported that ByteDance said it would curb its AI video app following Disney's legal threats, according to the BBC. RBI tightened rules for loans provided to brokers and proprietary firms in an effort to reduce market speculation FX DXY eked slight gains in rangebound trade after a lack of major catalysts and with US participants away on Monday. EUR/USD was little changed amid the absence of any major macro catalysts and with light newsflow from the bloc, while comments from ECB President Lagarde and news that the ECB is to make its repo backstop available to other central banks across the world, did little to spur price action. GBP/USD held on to most of Friday's spoils but with price action contained by resistance around 1.3650 and following comments from BoE's Mann that the UK economy is sluggish and tepid, with consumers spending less due to being scarred by high inflation. USD/JPY edged higher and returned to above the 153.00 level in the aftermath of the weaker-than-expected preliminary Q4 GDP data for Japan. Antipodeans were mixed with little fresh macro drivers and a lack of tier-1 data from either side of the Tasman. Fixed Income 10yr UST futures traded little changed and held on to last week's spoils after returning above the 113.00 level in the aftermath of the softer US inflation data, while price action was contained to start the week by the closure of US cash markets for Washington's Birthday. Bund futures lacked demand in the absence of any major catalysts and with light newsflow from the bloc. 10yr JGB futures were marginally higher following disappointing preliminary GDP data for Q4, but with gains limited after failing to sustain a brief reclaim of the 132.00 level. Commodities Crude futures were rangebound amid light energy-specific newsflow from over the weekend and after last Friday's indecisive performance, where attention was on a source report that noted OPEC+ is leaning towards resuming oil output hikes from April, but with no decision made. Slovak PM Fico said he has information that the Druzhba pipeline has been fixed after damage in Ukraine, although he believes that supplies to Hungary and Slovakia have become a part of political blackmail. Spot gold took a breather after edging higher in the aftermath of the recent softer-than-expected US inflation data, with price action also contained by the holiday closures across Asia and North America. Copper futures were subdued, with their largest buyer away for more than a week due to the Chinese New Year/Spring Festival holiday. Texas venture-backed startup Hertha Metal vowed mass production of steel with 25% cost savings, which could reduce US reliance on imports. Geopolitics: Middle East US military is preparing for potential operations against Iran that could last for weeks if US President Trump orders an attack and the US fully expects Iran to retaliate, according to sources cited by Reuters. US President Trump told Israeli PM Netanyahu during a meeting in December that he would support Israel striking Iran’s ballistic missile program if the US and Iran are not able to reach a deal, according to CBS. Iran confirmed that indirect talks between the US and Iran will resume in Geneva on Tuesday under the mediation of Oman, while Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi left for Geneva on Sunday. Iranian diplomat said Iran is open to nuclear deal compromises if the US discusses lifting sanctions, while it was also reported that Iran said potential energy, mining and aircraft deals are on the table in talks with the US. Israel’s cabinet approved the proposal to register West Bank lands as ‘state property’, while Palestinians condemned the ‘de facto annexation’ which Peace Now said likely amounts to a ‘mega land grab’. Geopolitics: Ukraine US President Trump said on Friday that Ukrainian President Zelensky is going to have to get moving and that Russia wants to get a deal. US Secretary of State Rubio said they don’t know if Russia is serious about finding an end to the war in Ukraine and will continue to test it, while it was reported that he met with Ukrainian President Zelensky on security and deepening defence and economic partnerships. Ukrainian drones targeted Russia’s Taman seaport and fuel tanks in the Black Sea region. UK and European allies were reported on Friday to be weighing seizing Russian shadow fleet ships and tightening curbs on Russia's economy. French Foreign Minister Barrot said some G7 nations have expressed a willingness to proceed with a maritime services ban on Russian oil, which they hope to include in the 20th sanctions package that they are actively preparing. Geopolitics: Other European Commission President von der Leyen said that they face the very distinct threat of outside forces trying to weaken their union, while she added that mutual defence is not an optional task for the European Union; it is an obligation within their own treaty, and it is their collective commitment to stand by each other in case of aggression. Pentagon said the US military struck an alleged drug cartel boat in the Caribbean, which killed three people. DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnigt wrap I hope you all had a good weekend. To stay in Winter Olympics mood the family watched "Cool Runnings" last night. I haven't seen it for 32 years. Please don't tell anyone but I had a few tears in my eyes at the end. I blamed it on the hay fever that has now started. There will be a lot of tears out there in markets for other reasons at the moment. Just two weeks ago, the idea of AI-driven disruption still felt like an abstract, almost academic thought experiment—something we could safely revisit once we had clearer evidence of how AI would be deployed and integrated across the economy. Fast forward 14 days, and markets have wiped out well over a trillion dollars of global equity value on the fear that AI could fundamentally reshape business models and compress profitability across a wide range of industries, including software, legal services, IT consulting, wealth management, logistics, insurance, real estate brokerage and commercial real estate. Some of the sell off in “old economy” sectors feels overdone to me. But as I argued in our 2026 World Outlook back in November, the real challenge is that even by the end of this year we still won’t have enough evidence to identify the structural winners and losers with confidence. That leaves plenty of room for investors’ imaginations—both optimistic and pessimistic—to run wild. As such big sentiment swings will continue to be the order of the day. My instinct is that the reaction in things like commercial real estate, for example, has been particularly exaggerated. Markets seem to be extrapolating a scenario in which vast numbers of white collar workers are made redundant almost overnight, leading to a dramatic collapse in office demand. If that view turns out to be correct, we’ll be facing societal challenges far larger than anything currently being priced into equities. While trying to catch a falling knife may be too risky for many, beginning to cushion the descent could be sensible in many old economy sectors. Markets can’t sustain a disruption narrative across multiple sectors for months or quarters without concrete evidence — and that evidence is likely to take much longer to emerge. Fascinating times. As for this week, today is a US holiday but inflation will remain in the spotlight at a global level after Friday's slightly softer US CPI which helped contribute to a decent rates rally to end the week. Prints are due in the US (PCE - Friday), the UK (Wednesday), Canada (Tuesday) and Japan (Friday). Other economic highlights will include the FOMC minutes (Wednesday), Q4 GDP in the US (Friday), as well as the global flash PMIs (Friday). Earnings reports will feature Walmart (Thursday), Nestlé (Thursday) and BHP (today). It's the earnings calm before next week's Nvidia storm. In the US, this holiday shortened week (President's Day today) features a data calendar dominated by releases that were pushed back by last year’s government shutdown. The most consequential updates will land on Friday, when the advance estimate of Q4 GDP arrives alongside December’s personal income and consumption figures—key inputs for shaping expectations for the early part of this year. For markets assessing the underlying pulse of demand heading into 2026, private final sales to domestic purchasers (PFDP) will carry more weight than the headline GDP print. This indicator—closely monitored by Fed Chair Powell—is expected by our economists to slow to 2.0% from 2.9% in Q3, though risks appear tilted upward. One swing factor: Wednesday’s durable goods report, where modest gains outside of transportation could soften the deceleration. On the consumer front, real PCE growth is expected to cool to 2.5% after two quarters of outsized strength but should still signal ample momentum heading into the new year. Friday’s income and spending report will also offer the latest reading on core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Our economists expect another 0.4% monthly increase for December, lifting the year over year rate to 2.9%. Updated seasonal factors from last week’s CPI release suggest some mild downward pressure on inflation trends in the second half of 2025. Still, January’s CPI data, although softer than we anticipated, do not translate into equivalent relief for core PCE—in fact, our team currently sees another 0.4% gain for January's release (delayed until March 13th). Depending on the strength of medical services, airfare, and portfolio management components in the upcoming PPI report, a 0.5% monthly rise cannot be ruled out, which would push the year over year rate toward 3.1%. So don't get too excited about the softer CPI last week and the huge rates rally. Additional releases this week will help clarify whether recent severe winter weather has disrupted factory sector activity. January industrial production, due Wednesday, should benefit from a jump in utility output, while weather effects may weigh on the Empire State Survey tomorrow and the Philadelphia Fed survey on Thursday. Labor market data will also be in focus, particularly Thursday’s jobless claims, which line up with the survey week for the February employment report. As our economists have pointed out, private nonfarm job gains have averaged 103k over the past three months, slightly above the pace at this point in 2025 and matching the start of 2024. See their latest US employment chartbook here. This week will also feature a dense lineup of Federal Reserve speakers which you can see alongside all the key global data in the day-by-day week ahead calendar at the end as usual. Moving away from the US, inflation will also be in focus in Japan (Friday) and Canada (tomorrow). For the former, our Chief Japan Economist sees the January nationwide CPI showing a slowdown in both core CPI inflation ex. fresh food to 2.1% YoY (+2.4% in December) and core-core CPI inflation ex. fresh food and energy to 2.7% (+2.9%). Also important will be the global flash PMIs due on Friday as a health check on global growth. In Europe, the spotlight will be on UK inflation (Wednesday), with labour market data due tomorrow and retail sales on Friday. Our UK economist expects headline CPI inflation to drop to 3.0% YoY (3.4% in December) and core CPI also landing at 3.0% YoY (3.2% YoY). See more in his full preview here. In terms of key rate decisions, the RBNZ are expected to remain on hold on Wednesday. Finally, the Munich Security Conference wrapped up over the weekend, where key topics included Ukraine, Russia, and the fate of Greenland. And while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s speech was nothing like Vice President JD Vance’s at last year’s conference, which triggered a “wake-up” call for European leaders, Rubio reiterated the administration’s view that Europe needed to leave behind its focus on energy policies, trade and mass migration. Recapping last week now, the tech volatility that has dogged markets since the start of the month broadened into a far more indiscriminate sell-off. The trough came on Thursday, marked by a sharp drop in software stocks, but the weakness extended well beyond tech. Companies across wealth management, real estate and financials suffered double digit declines, underscoring how widespread the pullback has become. Market breadth confirmed this shift as the equal weighted S&P 500 fell -1.37% on Thursday, though it managed to finish the week up +0.29% (+1.04% on Friday). Ultimately, the sell-off left the major US indices on the back foot: the S&P 500 slipped -1.39% (+0.05% on Friday), the Nasdaq lost -2.10% (-0.22% on Friday), and the Magnificent 7 slid -3.24% (-1.11% on Friday). Although the AI scare dominated sentiment, a heavy slate of US data also shaped the market narrative. Early in the week, softer prints—including flat December retail sales, a dovish Q4 Employment Cost Index, and slower Q4 growth expectations from the Atlanta Fed—pushed Treasury yields lower across the curve. That picture shifted midweek after a stronger than expected January jobs report, which delivered the largest gain in nonfarm payrolls (+130k vs. +65k expected) since December 2024 and reinforced confidence that the US economy carried solid momentum into 2026. Then on Friday, January CPI came in below expectations, adding another dovish note. Although the data offered mixed signals at times, the overall takeaway was sufficiently dovish for traders to increase the number of expected rate cuts by December 2026 to 63.4bps (+7.7bps on the week). This helped drive the largest weekly drop in the 10 year Treasury yield since August 2025, down -15.8bps (-5.0bps on Friday) to 4.05%. The 2 year yield also moved sharply lower, falling -8.9bps to 3.41% (-4.8bps on Friday), its lowest level since 2022. European markets, meanwhile, delivered a comparatively resilient performance. The STOXX 600 (+0.09%, -0.13% Friday), DAX (+0.78%, +0.25% Friday) and FTSE 100 (+0.74%, +0.42% Friday) all posted modest gains for the week. European sovereign bonds rallied as well, with the 10 year bund yield dropping -8.7bps—its steepest weekly decline since April 2025. That move was outpaced by gilts, which fell -9.8bps (-3.6bps on Friday) despite a sharp early week sell-off triggered by renewed questions surrounding Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s position. Elsewhere, performance was mixed. Brent crude edged down -0.44% (+0.34% on Friday), while gold extended its upward run, rising +1.56% (+2.43% on Friday). Will London’s half term week finally give us a quiet week in 2026? You’d probably have to guess at ‘unlikely’. Tyler Durden Mon, 02/16/2026 - 09:40

Ukrainian forces launched a drone strike on a Russian Black Sea port, while President Zelenskyy addressed the Munich Security Conference on the ongoing conflict and the need for allied security guarantees. Reports also highlight significant Russian troop losses and the growing influence of drone warfare.

The tanker was off the coast of Novorossiysk and sustained only material damage on its right side; it was sailing without cargo The post A Greek ship was hit by a missile in the Black Sea – The 24…

Moldova will host the third Black Sea Region Security Conference on March 23, organized under the auspices of the International Crimea Platform in cooperation with Ukraine.

Türkiye's energy security is heavily dependent on two main natural gas pipelines, TurkStream and Blue Stream, which supply gas from Russia through the Black Sea, with Blue Stream commissioned in 2003.

Romania Set to Allow US to Use Black Sea Base for Iran Missions  Bloomberg

For centuries, Trabzon was one of the most important cities of Hellenism on the Black Sea.

Pepeçura, a grape-based dessert with geographical indication status, takes its place on tables in Türkiye's Black Sea province of Rize as fragrant grapes ripen toward the end...

Ukraine's General Staff confirms damage to two Russian Black Sea Fleet ships in Novorossiysk  The Kyiv Independent

Ukraine's General Staff confirmed that two vessels of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, the Admiral Essen and Admiral Makarov frigates, sustained damage in Novorossiysk.

Ukraine's Naval Forces have shared footage of a strike on a Russian Ka-27 helicopter on a drilling rig in the Black Sea. The operation was carried out jointly with the Special Operations Forces on the night of 4-5 March 2026.

Ukrainian Navy units have destroyed a Russian Ka-27 helicopter over the Black Sea.

Ukraine reported that a Russian drone struck a civilian cargo ship in the Black Sea port of Chornomorsk, injuring several crew members. The incident occurred on Wednesday evening.

Several Telegram channels claim that up to five Russian Black Sea Fleet ships, including possibly the frigate Admiral Grigorovich, were hit in a drone attack on Novorossiisk, though these reports are unconfirmed.

Romania's Constitutional Court has postponed its rulings on two appeals filed by Nicușor Dan concerning legislative changes related to the use of Black Sea beaches and the electricity and prosumer law, rescheduling them for March 25.

Reports of Moldova 'losing its access to the Black Sea' and 'selling the country in pieces' are false; Moldova has never owned the Giurgiulești International Free Port, clarifying public misinformation.

On the night of March 2, drones attacked Novorossiysk, causing a fire at the Russian oil terminal Sheskharis on the Black Sea.

Ukrainian drones attacked the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, causing a fire at an oil terminal and damage to buildings. This port is crucial for oil exports and hosts part of the Black Sea Fleet.

The Russian Defence Ministry claims its air defences destroyed 97 “Ukrainian drones”, including 40 over occupied Crimea and 10 over the Black Sea.

Billions in leftover construction funds from Vladimir Putin's rumored Black Sea mansion were reportedly transferred to his long-time romantic partner, Alina Kabaeva.

Romania and Bulgaria, situated on NATO's Black Sea border, are seeking favor with Donald Trump due to security and economic pressures, with Greenland also playing a role in the geopolitical game.

Lukoil is reportedly seeking to place its Trident perimeter in the Romanian Black Sea under force majeure protection, indicating potential operational or contractual difficulties.

An article discusses the strategic and logistical implications of connecting the Aegean Sea to the Black Sea.

Russian ruler Vladimir Putin has claimed that Russia has information about a possible sabotage of the TurkStream and Blue Stream gas pipelines in the Black Sea and linked this to attempts to disrupt the negotiation process.

Lukoil Overseas Atash BV, a Dutch subsidiary of the Russian oil giant, has informed Romania that it can no longer operate its nearly 88% stake in the Trident natural gas exploration concession in the Romanian Black Sea, citing force majeure, with the dispute now in court.

Romania's defense minister has advocated for a NATO mission in the Black Sea region, aiming to deter Russia and enhance regional security.

The Russian Defense Ministry reported the largest wave of Ukrainian drone attacks since early January, with most unmanned aircraft downed over the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.