The US economy expanded at a sluggish 0.5% in the fourth quarter, according to government data, which downgraded a previous estimate.

Authored by David Stockman, an article warns that the current economic conditions in the US represent a form of stagflation distinct from historical precedents, as the economy grinds to a halt amidst inflation.

The Cypriot economy experienced a marginal year-on-year decrease in March 2026, indicating a potential slowdown influenced by the ongoing Middle East crisis.

A Goldman Sachs survey indicates that large investors, such as insurance companies, are expanding their involvement in private markets, while the US economy is becoming a concern amidst geopolitical risks and opportunities in artificial intelligence.

Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that the ongoing conflict in Iran is costing the U.S. economy approximately 10,000 jobs each month.

Despite avoiding a recession, the United States economy is characterized by a prevailing sense of public dissatisfaction and misery.

Donald Trump's draconian immigration policies are highlighted as some of his most disruptive interventions, raising questions about the US economy's ability to thrive without migrant contributions.

A new poll reveals that almost half of all Americans are concerned about a 'total economic collapse' occurring within the next decade, with many believing the US economy is already in dire straits.

Cyprus must carefully manage its public messaging abroad, particularly regarding military imagery, as persistent Middle East tensions could damage tourism, investment, and confidence, according to the Cyprus economy and competitiveness council chairman.

New research indicates that the average H-1B household contributes significantly more to the US economy, approximately $30,050, which is 2.6 times that of a typical US household.

Oxford Economics warns that while the energy crisis has not yet led to a recession, a scenario exists where rising oil prices could bring the US economy to a complete halt.

The US economy experienced a sharper slowdown in the fourth quarter of 2025 than initially estimated, primarily due to a decrease in personal consumption and exports.

The US economy expanded at an anemic annual rate of 0.7% in the fourth quarter, significantly lower than initial estimates, primarily due to the 43-day federal government shutdown last year.

Outcomes depend on how quickly oil tankers can return to the Strait of Hormuz, experts said.

The US economy unexpectedly lost 92,000 jobs in February, contrary to forecasts, according to new figures from the US Department of Labor.

The US economy unexpectedly lost 92,000 jobs in February, with nearly all sectors affected, raising concerns about the stability of the US labor market.

The United States unexpectedly lost 92,000 jobs in February, with the unemployment rate ticking up, putting pressure on the President's economic agenda ahead of midterm elections.

Cyprus continued to outperform most eurozone economies in fiscal balance in 2025, according to analysis released by Eurobank research economist Michail Vassileiadis, based on preliminary fiscal data and the first estimate of gross domestic product. The analysis stated that Cyprus outperformed most eurozone peers in fiscal balance for a fourth consecutive year, continuing a trend […]

A preview of the February jobs report anticipates 55,000 jobs added to the US economy, a decrease from January but slightly above the Fed's breakeven point.

Services ISM Smashes Estimates, Prints At 56.1 Highest Since 2022, As Prices Paid Tumble After the Manufacturing ISM print earlier this week came modestly stronger than expected (albeit with the Prices Paid component spiking and sending 10Y yields higher), some were expecting a similar improvement in today's Services ISM print. What they got instead, was a blowout number, and one suggesting that whatever weakness the US economy was in for much of the latter part of 2025, is now ...

Trump’s decision to launch open-ended attacks on Iran risks shaking the US economy, with global trade, oil prices, and inflation all in the balance. The uncertainty is just beginning.

Here are the top business stories in Cyprus from the week starting February 23: Cyprus and Serbia have agreed to sign a Memorandum of Cooperation in tourism in the coming months, with the Republic of Cyprus participating as the honoured country for the first time in its history at the Sajam Turizma 2026 tourism exhibition […]

A 'doomsday' report has left experts concerned about the increasing likelihood of a significant shake-up in the US economy, stating the current system is unprepared for such a crisis.

An article analyzes former President Trump's claims that the US economy is 'bigger, better, richer,' examining the reality behind these statements.

An analysis reviews the state of the U.S. economy during the first year of the Trump presidency.

The US economy experienced strong growth in 2025, but job creation remained stagnant, leading to concerns about a widening wealth gap and a potentially frozen labor market.

Eric Trump speculates that a certain type of cryptocurrency could 'arguably' save the US dollar and bring trillions into the US economy.

The US economy experienced a slowdown in its fourth-quarter growth, with the government shutdown cited as a contributing factor.

Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz forecasts a continued weakening of the US economy, citing three primary reasons for his pessimistic outlook.

Stocks are climbing due to solid US economic news and easing jitters surrounding artificial intelligence.

The office market is exhibiting a K-shaped recovery, mirroring the broader U.S. economy's uneven performance.

Economists are examining the US economy for signs of weakness in the fourth quarter and analyzing signals from the Beveridge curve regarding the state of the US labor market.

Despite a growing US economy, there are rising concerns about the job market as hiring rates and job openings continue to drop. Some analysts worry that a tough job market might persist.

An analyst from Eurobank reported that the Cyprus economy maintained its resilience in March, despite a challenging external environment influenced by regional instability in the Middle East. The report highlighted the economy's ability to withstand these pressures.

An immigration expert has controversially stated that Indians are the 'new oil, coal, or gas' amidst a debate over Trump's proposed $100,000 fee hike for H-1B visas, which critics argue could harm the US economy.

Analyses suggest the ongoing Iran War is strengthening the American economy and making it more dominant, while also examining how well the U.S. economy is insulated from the conflict's broader impacts.

The United States saw a surprising creation of 178,000 jobs in March, following a significant decline in February. The data indicates increased confidence in the labor market, though the full impact of the conflict with Iran is not yet reflected.

An expert has stated that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is revealing significant weaknesses within the US economy, particularly its 'no-hire' aspects.

A Federal Reserve governor has issued a warning that stablecoins pose a danger to the US economy, citing a "long and painful history of private money" as a concern.

The aluminum giant Alcoa, historically a barometer for the US economy, is gaining renewed attention as its stock soars, prompting questions about the resurgence of traditional industries.

Analysis suggests that "Trump's war" policies are causing a supply chain crisis, leading to higher prices for ordinary Americans and impacting the US economy.

The US economy is facing accelerating fears of stagflation, characterized by high inflation and slow economic growth, reminiscent of the 1970s, with recent PMI data signaling a worsening outlook as a war has started.

A political cartoon by Michael Ramirez titled "Outnumbered" offers commentary on the current state of the U.S. economy, the Iran war, and rising gas prices.

An expert suggests the US economy is experiencing a 'boomcession,' where official economic data shows growth, but everyday Americans feel financially strained.

The overall strength of the US economy is increasingly dependent on the spending patterns of its wealthiest citizens, highlighting a key factor in economic performance.

War, Oil And Debt: Which Threats To The US Economy Are Legit? Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us It’s the magic number, the line that’s not supposed to be crossed; when a…

A new estimate indicates that the U.S. economy experienced an even slower growth rate in the fourth quarter.

The US government announced that the economy expanded at a sluggish 0.7% in the fourth quarter, downgrading its initial estimate.

The US economy grew just 0.7% last quarter, ahead of a potentially destabilizing war with Iran  CNN

Nobel laureate Paul Krugman states that the ongoing conflict in the Strait of Hormuz is making the U.S. economy 'fragile'.

An ICE crackdown targeting foreign-born truck drivers for failing English proficiency tests is exacerbating severe labor shortages in the vital trucking industry.

An analysis suggests that while the U.S. is a net petroleum exporter and productivity is improving, a potential oil shock is unlikely to derail the economy, though stubborn inflation poses a greater risk.

Despite a general trend of job shedding in the US economy, the legal sector has seen growth in employment.

Extreme scenarios causing unnecessary panic for Cyprus economy, board warns The Famagusta regional tourism board (Etap) on Friday called for calm and restraint amid concerns over regional tensions. In an official statement, the board said that while some hotel booking cancellations have been recorded in the Famagusta district, they are not expected to significantly affect […]

A Q1 AICPA-CIMA survey indicates a rise in executive optimism regarding the US economy.

George Pantelidis, president of the Cypriot Employers and Industrialists Federation (Oev), urged for the immediate continuation of daily social and business activity in Cyprus, warning that unnecessary disruptions could lead to avoidable economic consequences.

The U.S. economy expanded in February at the fastest pace in 3.5 years, according to an ISM survey, with sales and new orders rising despite winter storms.

Trump’s Iran War Adds New Potential Shock for US Economy, Voters  Bloomberg

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll indicates that the majority of US citizens do not share former President Donald Trump's optimistic view regarding the state of the American economy.

Donald Trump claims the US economy is 'winning so much,' a sentiment the IMF agrees with, though it notes that Trump's trade policies are hindering even greater economic success.

IMF Says Tariff Upheaval Risks Harm to ‘Buoyant’ US Economy  Bloomberg

The US economy experienced growth in 2025, driven by consumer demand and business investments, but job creation, particularly for highly educated Americans, has lagged.

The US economy expanded by 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025, a growth rate that fell short of economic forecasts.

Trump moves to lift global tariff to 15% after court setback; Chinese expert warns of politicized trade measures harming global supply chains and US economy  Global Times

Bessent has stated that the U.S. economy is expected to achieve a growth rate of at least 3.5% by 2026.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the US economy experienced slower-than-anticipated growth in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Walmart's conservative financial outlook is seen as an indicator of the current uneven state of the U.S. economy.

The office market is exhibiting a K-shaped recovery, mirroring the broader US economy where upper-income consumers drive growth while middle and working-class households face constraints.

The US economy is heading into uncharted territory as the Federal Reserve might cut rates despite a healthy economy and a weakening dollar.

Financial author Robert Kiyosaki criticizes the US economy as debt-ridden and predicts a severe crash, offering advice on wealth protection.

An analysis suggests that the current US economy is exhibiting patterns more akin to the 2000s rather than the inflationary 1970s. This comparison offers a perspective on contemporary economic challenges and trends.

An analysis explores the evolving situation in Venezuela, questioning if it represents a new method of regime change and its significance to the US economy, given Venezuela's vast oil reserves. The discussion also touches upon the perception of a "puppet regime" under Trump.

An article explains what 'USA's kongetal' (US economic figures) are and why investors closely monitor their publication due to the size of the US economy.

The U.S. economy has consistently alternated between adding and losing jobs for ten consecutive months, a trend that is anticipated to persist with the upcoming March jobs report.

The Tax Foundation has published an analysis asserting that the tax policies implemented on Liberation Day did not lead to an improvement in the U.S. economy.

Despite the ongoing war in Iran and existing tariffs, most Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) have expressed a more optimistic outlook for the US economy.

The US economy appears remarkably resilient, having avoided a prolonged downturn since the end of the 2009 financial crisis, with the exception of the two-month COVID-19 recession in 2020.

Wells Fargo anticipates that the U.S. economy will successfully navigate an oil shock, with inflation risks remaining contained despite global energy market volatility.

Analysts are closely monitoring the $138 mark for oil prices, considering its potential impact on the US economy amidst ongoing developments in the Middle East and President Trump's stance on Iran.

Former Trump candidate EJ Antoni warns that the American economy is too fragile to withstand a war with Iran and the resulting $100 per barrel oil prices, which would lead to increased inflation and new economic challenges.

Private credit expands in attempt to bolster business investment in Africa’s most populous economy

The US Department of Energy has warned that gasoline and diesel prices are unlikely to return to pre-war levels until at least mid-2027, which will have a long-term impact on the US economy and increase costs for various industries.

The US economy experienced significantly slower growth in the fourth quarter of 2025, with GDP rising only 0.7%, a major downgrade from initial estimates. This slowdown is attributed to looming fallout from the war in the Middle East, stoking inflation worries.

Revised figures indicate that the US economy grew at a slower rate of 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025, down from an earlier estimate of 1.4%, suggesting a weaker economic performance than initially reported.

Donald Trump is reportedly planning new trade tariffs, including a permanent tariff wall against allies like the EU and Mexico, citing 'unfair competition' and risking damage to the US economy and Republican unity.

Rising fuel prices are anticipated to have a lasting negative effect on the US economy, leading to higher costs for industries like farming and airlines, which will likely pass these increases on to consumers.

Italian unions Adoc, Cgil, and Alleanza are advocating for a shift away from a bonus-based economy, citing growing social discomfort and stagnant requirements.

Research indicates that daylight saving time imposes a significant economic cost of $672 million on the U.S. economy annually.

Cyprus’s economy is holding up under the strain of the Middle East war, with the government’s economic team concluding it can withstand the disruption for up to four weeks without serious damage,…

Figure far below expectations comes as doubts persist over labour market strength

The ongoing turmoil in the Middle East is anticipated to affect Cyprus's tourism, shipping, investment, energy, inflation, and household purchasing power, with the extent of the impact depending on the conflict's intensity and duration.

Cyprus’ gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 3.8 per cent in real terms in 2025, according to preliminary estimates by the Cyprus Statistical Service (Cystat). The statistical service said the economy recorded positive growth of 3.8 per cent in real terms compared with 2024, with GDP at constant prices reaching €30.52 billion. In current prices, […]

Experts are scrutinizing former President Trump's tariff policies, questioning whether illegally collected funds will be returned to companies, amidst rising country risks despite a seemingly strong US economy.

Skybridge's Anthony Scaramucci states that the US economy will recover if it maintains stable political policy.

The Cyprus Fiscal Council announced that national public debt is on a downward trajectory, expected to fall below 60% of GDP by 2025, but raised concerns about the economy's reliance on foreign investment and potential flight.

Hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio has issued a warning that the US is heading into 'very dark times' and provided guidance on how investors can protect their portfolios.

The US economy experienced a slowdown in growth during the fourth quarter, with the government shutdown identified as a contributing factor.

The US economy experienced a slowdown in its final months, concluding a turbulent year with overall growth of 2.2% despite tariff and immigration policy pressures.

The US economy grew at a rate of 1.4% in the fourth quarter, significantly lower than anticipated and a sharp decline from the previous three-month period.

Reports highlight the significant reliance of Americans on Social Security by 2026 and the increasing economic influence of the over-65 demographic.

The US economy is undergoing a significant shift, with discussions focusing on whether it is aligning more with European or Australian economic models.

Futures, Global Markets Rise With US Markets Closed For President's Day Stocks gained, bitcoin tumbled and bonds steadied after Friday's cool CPI data reinforced expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates on multiple occasions this year. With US markets closed for the Presidents’ Day holiday and mainland China’s markets closed for Lunar New Year holidays, trading was muted on Monday. As of 9:00am ET, futures on the S&P 500 added 0.4% and Europe’s Stoxx 600 index rose 0.4% as banking shares rebounded from a sharp decline last week. German bunds and Treasury futures were steady after US yields touched the lowest since December on Friday. The path of US interest rates remains in focus following Friday’s slower-than-expected US inflation print as traders fully price a Fed cut in July and the strong chance of a move in June.   “The backdrop for equities is positive post CPI,” said Andrea Gabellone, head of global equities at KBC Securities. At the same time, there could be “more dispersion ahead as sentiment around key AI-exposed sectors is still very critical,” he added.  That sentiment was echoed by other strategists seeking to distinguish between AI losers and winners. A JPMorgan Chase & Co. team led by Mislav Matejka urged caution on stocks at risk of AI-driven “cannibalization,” including software, business services and media companies. Meanwhile, banks are developing baskets to capitalize on the divergence: as we first reported last Thursday, Goldman launched a new basket of software stocks that goes long firms that will benefit from AI adoption, while shorting the companies whose workflows could be replaced. With AI disruption rippling through markets, a lot will come down to earnings resilience, in particular in the US.  “When you look at the current earnings season, the companies are showing 13% of growth,” Nataliia Lipikhina, head of EMEA equity strategy at JPMorgan, told Bloomberg TV. “Overall, this is the reason why we continue to be positive on the S&P.” Later this week, traders will be watching for ADP private payrolls numbers on Tuesday and the minutes from the Fed’s January meeting on Wednesday for a fresh read on the economy. European stocks gained with bank shares rebounding, after posting their biggest weekly decline since April on worries about disruption from artificial intelligence. The basic resources sector lags, with Norsk Hydro among Europe’s worst performers as both Goldman Sachs and RBC downgrade the stock. Stoxx 600 rises 0.4% to 620.26 with 253 members down, 336 up, and 11 unchanged. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:  NatWest shares rise as much as 4%, the most since October, as Citi analyst Andrew Coombs raises his price target on the UK bank to a Street-high. Seraphim Space shares rise as much as 9.2%, briefly hitting a new all-time high, after the space tech investment firm said the valuations of its four largest holdings increased over the final months of 2025. AECI shares rally as much as 6.1%, the most since July, after the South African commercial-explosives maker shared improved 2025 headline earnings per share guidance. Orsted shares rise as much as 3.8% after analysts at Kepler raise the recommendation to buy from hold over the Danish renewable energy firm’s outlook, despite ongoing uncertainty for the industry in the US. Norsk Hydro shares fall as much as 4.4%, extending Friday’s 5.9% earnings-triggered drop, after being downgraded at Goldman Sachs and RBC over disappointments and pricing pressures in the Norwegian aluminum company’s downstream business. Galderma shares slip as much as 2.2% after naming Luigi La Corte as its new chief financial officer following the news back in July that Thomas Dittrich was departing. Pinewood Technologies shares tumble as much as 32%, the most since April 2024, after Apax Partners said on Friday it will not proceed with a possible cash offer for the car dealership software provider. FlatexDEGIRO shares drop as much as 7.2% after BNP Paribas downgraded the online brokerage firm to neutral from outperform, saying the price reflects too much optimism about its market position in Germany. Maurel & Prom shares slump as much as 12%, pulling back after ending last week at a 2015-high, after announcing it is not currently authorized to resume oil and gas operations in Venezuela. Barratt Redrow shares fall as much as 3.7%, leading a drop in British homebuilders after Rightmove said house prices are stalling. Asian stocks slipped for a second day, led by declines in Japan as traders booked profits after last week’s post-election rally. Several markets were closed or held shortened trading sessions for the Lunar New Year holiday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was down 0.1%. Japan’s Topix Index fell 0.8%, with Mizuho Financial Group Inc. and Toyota Motor Corp. among the companies contributing to the index’s losses.In Hong Kong, AI model developer Minimax Group Inc. surged as much as 30% to more than four times its original listing price, while competitor Knowledge Atlas JSC Ltd. ended 4.7% higher. The market will be closed until Thursday. As investors across the region begin to reevaluate their bets on its artificial-intelligence-driven rally, traders in Japan cashed in gains driven by expectations of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s proactive spending policies last week.Trading in Singapore ended early Monday and will be shut until Wednesday. Equity markets in mainland China, South Korea, Indonesia and Vietnam were closed.  In FX, the yen is the notable mover in currencies, weakening 0.5% against the dollar and pushing USD/JPY back above 153. The offshore yuan is one of the better performers against the greenback. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.1%. There is no cash trading in Treasuries due to the Presidents’ Day holiday. European government bonds are little changed In commdities, gold dipped below $5,000 an ounce, as traders booked profits from a gain in the previous session. Bitcoin tried anf ailed to stage a modest rebound; it last traded around $68,275 after posting its fourth consecutive weekly loss, with the cryptocurrency struggling to find clear direction as a weekend rally fizzled once the momentum ignition algos emerged.  WTI crude futures tread water near $62.90 a barrel.  Top Headlines President Trump said there will be voter ID rules in the mid-term elections this year, whether Congress approves it or not, and they will present a legal argument in an Executive Order. Furthermore, Trump said he has searched the depths of legal arguments not yet articulated nor vetted on this subject, and they will be presenting an irrefutable one in the very near future. Iran says potential energy, mining and aircraft deals on table in talks with US: RTRS Pentagon threatened to cut its ties with Anthropic over the company’s insistence that some limitations are kept on how the military uses its AI models: RTRS UK eyes rapid ban on social media for under 16s, curbs to AI chatbots: RTRS Rampant AI Demand for Memory Is Fueling a Growing Chip Crisis: BBG Warner Bros. Weighs Reopening Sale Negotiations With Paramount: BBG Companies Are Replacing CEOs in Record Numbers—and They’re Getting Younger: WSJ Europe aims to rely less on US defence after Trump's Greenland push: RTRS DOJ Tells Lawmakers Epstein File Redactions Complied With LawL BBG For College Applicants, Pressure to Make Summers Count Has Gotten Even Worse: WSJ Fed's Goolsbee (2027 voter) said on Friday that they are still seeing pretty high services inflation, and he hopes they have seen the peak impact of tariffs, while he added that the job market has been steady, with only modest cooling.  The Break Is Over. Companies Are Jacking Up Prices Again: WSJ Trade/Tariffs USTR Greer said the US and Ecuador expect to sign a trade agreement in the coming weeks. China will waive import value-added taxes on selected seeds, genetic resources, and police dogs through to 2030 to increase agricultural competitiveness and breeding capacity. It was also reported that China will grant zero-tariff access to 53 African nations from May 1st, according to Bloomberg. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his French and German counterparts that China and the EU are partners, not rivals, while he added that China and the EU should manage differences, deepen practical cooperation and work together on global challenges. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks began the week in the green but with gains limited following a lack of major fresh catalysts from over the weekend and amid thinned conditions owing to holiday closures in the region and North America. ASX 200 traded marginally higher with upside led by tech, although gains are capped by underperformance in the utilities, mining, materials and resources sectors, while participants also digested a slew of earnings releases. Nikkei 225 traded indecisively with the index constrained by disappointing Japanese preliminary Q4 GDP data, which showed the economy returned to growth but failed to meet expectations with GDP Q/Q at 0.1% (exp. 0.4%), and annualised GDP at 0.2% (exp. 1.6%). Hang Seng finished higher in a shortened trading session on Chinese New Year's Eve but with upside limited by tech weakness amid some confusion after the Pentagon added several companies including Baidu, Cosco, BYD, Huawei, Nio, SMIC, Tencent, and more to a list of Chinese firms aiding the military on Friday, but then withdrew the updated list shortly after it was posted. Furthermore, price action was also restricted by the closure of mainland markets and the absence of stock connect flows, which will remain shut for more than a week. US equity futures kept afloat in quiet trade amid the absence of drivers and participants. European equity futures indicate a mildly positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.1% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.4% on Friday. Asian Headlines Chinese President Xi called for the anchoring of economic growth around domestic demand as its main driver, in a speech during a key policy meeting late last year that was released on Sunday. China is to establish a permanent financial support framework to promote rural revitalisation and prevent a slide back into poverty, which represents a shift from transitional aid to long-term support. China’s market regulator summoned major online platform companies on Friday, including Alibaba, Douyin and Meituan, while it directed them to comply with laws and regulations, and rein in promotional practices, according to Bloomberg. US Secretary of State Rubio and Japanese Foreign Minister Motegi reaffirmed their commitment to deepen bilateral ties. Disney (DIS) sent a ‘cease and desist’ letter to ByteDance over Seedance 2.0 and alleged that ByteDance has been infringing on its IP to train and develop an AI video generation model without compensation, according to Axios. It was later reported that ByteDance said it would curb its AI video app following Disney's legal threats, according to the BBC. RBI tightened rules for loans provided to brokers and proprietary firms in an effort to reduce market speculation FX DXY eked slight gains in rangebound trade after a lack of major catalysts and with US participants away on Monday. EUR/USD was little changed amid the absence of any major macro catalysts and with light newsflow from the bloc, while comments from ECB President Lagarde and news that the ECB is to make its repo backstop available to other central banks across the world, did little to spur price action. GBP/USD held on to most of Friday's spoils but with price action contained by resistance around 1.3650 and following comments from BoE's Mann that the UK economy is sluggish and tepid, with consumers spending less due to being scarred by high inflation. USD/JPY edged higher and returned to above the 153.00 level in the aftermath of the weaker-than-expected preliminary Q4 GDP data for Japan. Antipodeans were mixed with little fresh macro drivers and a lack of tier-1 data from either side of the Tasman. Fixed Income 10yr UST futures traded little changed and held on to last week's spoils after returning above the 113.00 level in the aftermath of the softer US inflation data, while price action was contained to start the week by the closure of US cash markets for Washington's Birthday. Bund futures lacked demand in the absence of any major catalysts and with light newsflow from the bloc. 10yr JGB futures were marginally higher following disappointing preliminary GDP data for Q4, but with gains limited after failing to sustain a brief reclaim of the 132.00 level. Commodities Crude futures were rangebound amid light energy-specific newsflow from over the weekend and after last Friday's indecisive performance, where attention was on a source report that noted OPEC+ is leaning towards resuming oil output hikes from April, but with no decision made. Slovak PM Fico said he has information that the Druzhba pipeline has been fixed after damage in Ukraine, although he believes that supplies to Hungary and Slovakia have become a part of political blackmail. Spot gold took a breather after edging higher in the aftermath of the recent softer-than-expected US inflation data, with price action also contained by the holiday closures across Asia and North America. Copper futures were subdued, with their largest buyer away for more than a week due to the Chinese New Year/Spring Festival holiday. Texas venture-backed startup Hertha Metal vowed mass production of steel with 25% cost savings, which could reduce US reliance on imports. Geopolitics: Middle East US military is preparing for potential operations against Iran that could last for weeks if US President Trump orders an attack and the US fully expects Iran to retaliate, according to sources cited by Reuters. US President Trump told Israeli PM Netanyahu during a meeting in December that he would support Israel striking Iran’s ballistic missile program if the US and Iran are not able to reach a deal, according to CBS. Iran confirmed that indirect talks between the US and Iran will resume in Geneva on Tuesday under the mediation of Oman, while Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi left for Geneva on Sunday. Iranian diplomat said Iran is open to nuclear deal compromises if the US discusses lifting sanctions, while it was also reported that Iran said potential energy, mining and aircraft deals are on the table in talks with the US. Israel’s cabinet approved the proposal to register West Bank lands as ‘state property’, while Palestinians condemned the ‘de facto annexation’ which Peace Now said likely amounts to a ‘mega land grab’. Geopolitics: Ukraine US President Trump said on Friday that Ukrainian President Zelensky is going to have to get moving and that Russia wants to get a deal. US Secretary of State Rubio said they don’t know if Russia is serious about finding an end to the war in Ukraine and will continue to test it, while it was reported that he met with Ukrainian President Zelensky on security and deepening defence and economic partnerships. Ukrainian drones targeted Russia’s Taman seaport and fuel tanks in the Black Sea region. UK and European allies were reported on Friday to be weighing seizing Russian shadow fleet ships and tightening curbs on Russia's economy. French Foreign Minister Barrot said some G7 nations have expressed a willingness to proceed with a maritime services ban on Russian oil, which they hope to include in the 20th sanctions package that they are actively preparing. Geopolitics: Other European Commission President von der Leyen said that they face the very distinct threat of outside forces trying to weaken their union, while she added that mutual defence is not an optional task for the European Union; it is an obligation within their own treaty, and it is their collective commitment to stand by each other in case of aggression. Pentagon said the US military struck an alleged drug cartel boat in the Caribbean, which killed three people. DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnigt wrap I hope you all had a good weekend. To stay in Winter Olympics mood the family watched "Cool Runnings" last night. I haven't seen it for 32 years. Please don't tell anyone but I had a few tears in my eyes at the end. I blamed it on the hay fever that has now started. There will be a lot of tears out there in markets for other reasons at the moment. Just two weeks ago, the idea of AI-driven disruption still felt like an abstract, almost academic thought experiment—something we could safely revisit once we had clearer evidence of how AI would be deployed and integrated across the economy. Fast forward 14 days, and markets have wiped out well over a trillion dollars of global equity value on the fear that AI could fundamentally reshape business models and compress profitability across a wide range of industries, including software, legal services, IT consulting, wealth management, logistics, insurance, real estate brokerage and commercial real estate. Some of the sell off in “old economy” sectors feels overdone to me. But as I argued in our 2026 World Outlook back in November, the real challenge is that even by the end of this year we still won’t have enough evidence to identify the structural winners and losers with confidence. That leaves plenty of room for investors’ imaginations—both optimistic and pessimistic—to run wild. As such big sentiment swings will continue to be the order of the day. My instinct is that the reaction in things like commercial real estate, for example, has been particularly exaggerated. Markets seem to be extrapolating a scenario in which vast numbers of white collar workers are made redundant almost overnight, leading to a dramatic collapse in office demand. If that view turns out to be correct, we’ll be facing societal challenges far larger than anything currently being priced into equities. While trying to catch a falling knife may be too risky for many, beginning to cushion the descent could be sensible in many old economy sectors. Markets can’t sustain a disruption narrative across multiple sectors for months or quarters without concrete evidence — and that evidence is likely to take much longer to emerge. Fascinating times. As for this week, today is a US holiday but inflation will remain in the spotlight at a global level after Friday's slightly softer US CPI which helped contribute to a decent rates rally to end the week. Prints are due in the US (PCE - Friday), the UK (Wednesday), Canada (Tuesday) and Japan (Friday). Other economic highlights will include the FOMC minutes (Wednesday), Q4 GDP in the US (Friday), as well as the global flash PMIs (Friday). Earnings reports will feature Walmart (Thursday), Nestlé (Thursday) and BHP (today). It's the earnings calm before next week's Nvidia storm. In the US, this holiday shortened week (President's Day today) features a data calendar dominated by releases that were pushed back by last year’s government shutdown. The most consequential updates will land on Friday, when the advance estimate of Q4 GDP arrives alongside December’s personal income and consumption figures—key inputs for shaping expectations for the early part of this year. For markets assessing the underlying pulse of demand heading into 2026, private final sales to domestic purchasers (PFDP) will carry more weight than the headline GDP print. This indicator—closely monitored by Fed Chair Powell—is expected by our economists to slow to 2.0% from 2.9% in Q3, though risks appear tilted upward. One swing factor: Wednesday’s durable goods report, where modest gains outside of transportation could soften the deceleration. On the consumer front, real PCE growth is expected to cool to 2.5% after two quarters of outsized strength but should still signal ample momentum heading into the new year. Friday’s income and spending report will also offer the latest reading on core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Our economists expect another 0.4% monthly increase for December, lifting the year over year rate to 2.9%. Updated seasonal factors from last week’s CPI release suggest some mild downward pressure on inflation trends in the second half of 2025. Still, January’s CPI data, although softer than we anticipated, do not translate into equivalent relief for core PCE—in fact, our team currently sees another 0.4% gain for January's release (delayed until March 13th). Depending on the strength of medical services, airfare, and portfolio management components in the upcoming PPI report, a 0.5% monthly rise cannot be ruled out, which would push the year over year rate toward 3.1%. So don't get too excited about the softer CPI last week and the huge rates rally. Additional releases this week will help clarify whether recent severe winter weather has disrupted factory sector activity. January industrial production, due Wednesday, should benefit from a jump in utility output, while weather effects may weigh on the Empire State Survey tomorrow and the Philadelphia Fed survey on Thursday. Labor market data will also be in focus, particularly Thursday’s jobless claims, which line up with the survey week for the February employment report. As our economists have pointed out, private nonfarm job gains have averaged 103k over the past three months, slightly above the pace at this point in 2025 and matching the start of 2024. See their latest US employment chartbook here. This week will also feature a dense lineup of Federal Reserve speakers which you can see alongside all the key global data in the day-by-day week ahead calendar at the end as usual. Moving away from the US, inflation will also be in focus in Japan (Friday) and Canada (tomorrow). For the former, our Chief Japan Economist sees the January nationwide CPI showing a slowdown in both core CPI inflation ex. fresh food to 2.1% YoY (+2.4% in December) and core-core CPI inflation ex. fresh food and energy to 2.7% (+2.9%). Also important will be the global flash PMIs due on Friday as a health check on global growth. In Europe, the spotlight will be on UK inflation (Wednesday), with labour market data due tomorrow and retail sales on Friday. Our UK economist expects headline CPI inflation to drop to 3.0% YoY (3.4% in December) and core CPI also landing at 3.0% YoY (3.2% YoY). See more in his full preview here. In terms of key rate decisions, the RBNZ are expected to remain on hold on Wednesday. Finally, the Munich Security Conference wrapped up over the weekend, where key topics included Ukraine, Russia, and the fate of Greenland. And while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s speech was nothing like Vice President JD Vance’s at last year’s conference, which triggered a “wake-up” call for European leaders, Rubio reiterated the administration’s view that Europe needed to leave behind its focus on energy policies, trade and mass migration. Recapping last week now, the tech volatility that has dogged markets since the start of the month broadened into a far more indiscriminate sell-off. The trough came on Thursday, marked by a sharp drop in software stocks, but the weakness extended well beyond tech. Companies across wealth management, real estate and financials suffered double digit declines, underscoring how widespread the pullback has become. Market breadth confirmed this shift as the equal weighted S&P 500 fell -1.37% on Thursday, though it managed to finish the week up +0.29% (+1.04% on Friday). Ultimately, the sell-off left the major US indices on the back foot: the S&P 500 slipped -1.39% (+0.05% on Friday), the Nasdaq lost -2.10% (-0.22% on Friday), and the Magnificent 7 slid -3.24% (-1.11% on Friday). Although the AI scare dominated sentiment, a heavy slate of US data also shaped the market narrative. Early in the week, softer prints—including flat December retail sales, a dovish Q4 Employment Cost Index, and slower Q4 growth expectations from the Atlanta Fed—pushed Treasury yields lower across the curve. That picture shifted midweek after a stronger than expected January jobs report, which delivered the largest gain in nonfarm payrolls (+130k vs. +65k expected) since December 2024 and reinforced confidence that the US economy carried solid momentum into 2026. Then on Friday, January CPI came in below expectations, adding another dovish note. Although the data offered mixed signals at times, the overall takeaway was sufficiently dovish for traders to increase the number of expected rate cuts by December 2026 to 63.4bps (+7.7bps on the week). This helped drive the largest weekly drop in the 10 year Treasury yield since August 2025, down -15.8bps (-5.0bps on Friday) to 4.05%. The 2 year yield also moved sharply lower, falling -8.9bps to 3.41% (-4.8bps on Friday), its lowest level since 2022. European markets, meanwhile, delivered a comparatively resilient performance. The STOXX 600 (+0.09%, -0.13% Friday), DAX (+0.78%, +0.25% Friday) and FTSE 100 (+0.74%, +0.42% Friday) all posted modest gains for the week. European sovereign bonds rallied as well, with the 10 year bund yield dropping -8.7bps—its steepest weekly decline since April 2025. That move was outpaced by gilts, which fell -9.8bps (-3.6bps on Friday) despite a sharp early week sell-off triggered by renewed questions surrounding Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s position. Elsewhere, performance was mixed. Brent crude edged down -0.44% (+0.34% on Friday), while gold extended its upward run, rising +1.56% (+2.43% on Friday). Will London’s half term week finally give us a quiet week in 2026? You’d probably have to guess at ‘unlikely’. Tyler Durden Mon, 02/16/2026 - 09:40

The economist who initially identified America's K-shaped recovery expresses his gravest concerns for the future of the US economy.