An unknown drone was spotted on the ice of Lake Pyhäjärvi in Parikkala, near Finland's eastern border, days after Ukrainian drones reportedly crashed in the country. Border guards are investigating the incident.

Two Ukrainian drones equipped with explosives crashed in southern Finland, prompting an official apology from Ukraine, which stated the drones were not targeting Finnish territory and were diverted by Russian systems. Reports indicate the drones flew near the Estonian border before crashing, while Russian media has claimed the drones that fell in Kouvola were launched from Finland, though this is not Russia's official stance.

On the night of March 29, Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces successfully struck Russian BM-30 Smerch/Tornado-S multiple rocket launchers and fuel tanks in temporarily occupied Crimea, with drones destroying three MLRS and a transport-loading vehicle.

Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania have issued a joint statement calling for the strengthening of NATO's air defence capabilities following recent drone incidents and reaffirmed their support for Ukraine.

Two military drones, identified as Ukrainian, entered Estonian and Latvian airspace from Russia, with one striking the chimney of a local power station and the other crashing, prompting investigations. The subsequent mixed and unclear messaging regarding the threat alert was attributed to human error.

Interest in Ukrainian drone technology has significantly increased since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, leading to a surge in demand.

The Ukrainian military has released footage showing drone attacks, guided by Elon Musk's satellites, that destroyed a K-300P Bastion missile system located on the Crimean peninsula.

Ukrainian forces have reportedly resumed intense deep strikes, according to Russian Telegram channels, which also claimed to have shot down 283 Ukrainian drones overnight.

The Leningrad region was reportedly attacked by drones, with a fuel tank burning in Primorsk, as Russian authorities stated that fifty suspected Ukrainian drones were shot down over the region.

Russia's Defence Ministry claimed to have destroyed 283 Ukrainian fixed-wing drones over Russian territory on the night of March 20-21, with several oil refineries potentially being among the targets.

Explosions rock occupied Crimea as Ukrainian drones reportedly target military site  The Kyiv Independent

Moscow was targeted by more than 35 Ukrainian drones during an overnight attack, according to the city's mayor. This marks one of the largest drone assaults on the Russian capital, with details on damage and casualties yet to be fully disclosed.

Foreign countries and firms should not be able to bypass the government, Zelenskyy says. What we know on day 1,482 Foreign countries and firms that wish to buy Ukrainian drones should not be able to bypass the Ukrainian government by talking directly to manufacturers, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in remarks released Sunday. Zelenskyy said a new system was needed to prevent this from happening, and that his government had already reprimanded one manufacturer for selling interceptors with...

US military has asked Ukraine to share its experience in countering Shahed drones, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.

Russia has claimed that about 300 Ukrainian drones attacked the country during the past day, including 65 UAVs that were heading towards Moscow.

Local authorities announced today that Ukrainian drones hit an oil refinery and a port in the Krasnodar region of southwestern Russia overnight, causing injuries and material damage.

Ukrainian drone operators from the 412th Nemesis Brigade and the 7th Rapid Response Corps destroyed several Russian command posts near the temporarily occupied city of Selidove in the Donetsk region, 20 km behind the front line.

Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces destroyed a Russian Buk-M1 surface-to-air missile system in the temporarily occupied part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast and struck a number of other Russian facilities in the occupied parts of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts as well as in Crimea on the night of 10-11 March.

Donald Trump's sons reportedly plan to acquire Ukrainian drone manufacturers or license their technology to assemble drones in the US, with the intention of selling them to the US Army, capitalizing on ongoing conflicts.

Drones launched by Ukraine's Security Service Special Operations Centre Alfa have struck an aircraft repair plant in Yevpatoriia and two Pantsir-S2 surface-to-air missile and gun systems near the Dzhankoi airfield in occupied Crimea.

Ukrainian drones reportedly struck a branch of the Uralchem chemical plant in Russia's Kirov region, marking the second such attack on a Russian chemical industry facility in a week.

A Russian LNG tanker, ARCTIC METAGAZ, is reportedly on fire off the coast of Libya following an attack by Ukrainian drones. Its current condition remains unknown.

Ukrainian drones attacked the Russian port of Novorossiysk overnight, causing injuries and damage. Meanwhile, Russian attacks hit an unspecified enterprise in Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine, causing fires.

Ukrainian drones reportedly strike major oil terminal in southern Russia's Novorossiysk  The Kyiv Independent

The Russian Defence Ministry claims its air defences destroyed 97 “Ukrainian drones”, including 40 over occupied Crimea and 10 over the Black Sea.

Agents of the ATESH guerrilla movement carried out a successful sabotage operation on a Russian army communications facility near Sevastopol, resulting in the destruction of radio-electronic warfare antennas that were interfering with Ukrainian drones in the area.

Ukraine claims its drones have successfully struck a facility associated with the Druzhba oil pipeline located in Russia.

Moscow's four international airports faced temporary closures on Sunday as air defence systems downed 11 Ukrainian drones approaching the capital. Mayor Sergey Sobyanin confirmed the interceptions, wh

Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) destroyed three Russian Tor-M1 air defense systems, totaling $75 million, in the early hours of Friday, February 20, according to

Russia claims to have seized a dozen Ukrainian villages in February, while Ukraine has launched drone attacks on a key oil terminal in Russia's Krasnodar region.

A psychologist explains that availability bias is a psychological phenomenon causing people to mistakenly identify common occurrences, such as burning trash, as Ukrainian drones.

Drones from Ukraine have reportedly strayed into Baltic countries and Finland, raising concerns about significant vulnerabilities in the region's air defense systems.

The director of Rheinmetall reportedly disparaged Ukrainian drones, claiming they lack innovation and are made by housewives. Ukrainians have responded, asserting that their "housewives" are contributing to Europe's defense.

Ukrainian official Sybiha has stated that Ukrainian drones and anti-drone systems are a strategic resource, akin to 'oil,' highlighting their importance for national security and broader regional processes.

Russia claimed to have shot down hundreds of Ukrainian drones, a day after launching an extensive assault involving nearly 1,000 drones and 34 missiles on civilian areas, including a deadly attack on Lviv.

Russian GPS jamming poses an increased risk that Ukrainian drone attacks could stray into Finland, while oil tanks in Primorsk near the border continue to burn, causing massive climate emissions.

Ukrainian drones have caused a fire at the Russian port of Primorsk on the Baltic Sea, an important hub for Russian oil exports located between Saint Petersburg and the Finnish border.

A Ukrainian drone commander has stated that Ukrainian drones are killing Russian troops at a faster rate than Moscow can replace them, highlighting the effectiveness of drone warfare.

Russia's Defence Ministry has reported that more than 280 drones launched by Ukraine were intercepted, according to state news agency Tass.

O Conselho de Segurança da Rússia confessa que os drones ucranianos já conseguem chegar às partes mais remotas do território russo. Ainda Zelensky no Reino Unido e apoios para a compra de geradores.

Due to drone attacks in Russia, authorities are limiting mobile internet operations in Moscow. This measure aims to mitigate the impact of the ongoing drone activity.

At least 67 Ukrainian drones targeting Moscow were shot down by air defenses on Saturday, according to Mayor Sergey Sobyanin. The mayor's Telegram channel reported interventions against one or more drones almost hourly throughout Saturday and early Sunday.

The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that its air defense units intercepted a total of 280 Ukrainian drones over central and western Russia within a 10-hour period, with 47 of them reportedly heading towards Moscow.

Ukrainian drones reportedly hit an oil refinery and port in Russia's Krasnodar region overnight, causing material damage and injuring several people.

Unmanned Systems Forces units destroyed a Russian S-300V missile system and hit a Tor missile system and a fuel train in the temporarily occupied territory of the Luhansk region.

Russian Soldiers Are Surrendering To Ukrainian Drones And Robots  Forbes

Two people died in a Russian attack on Kharkiv, while Ukrainian drones reportedly hit Sochi in southern Russia, injuring one, and struck the KuybyshevAzot chemical plant, according to authorities and social media reports.

The Russian army cannot recover after being cut off from Starlink communications. Ukraine is releasing more and more new drones, devastating the aggressor's rear.

Ukrainian drones attack oil depot in Krasnodar Krai, Russia claims  The Kyiv Independent

The Unmanned Systems Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine struck four self-propelled Russian air defence systems in the temporarily occupied parts of Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Kherson Oblast on the night of 5-6 March.

A Russian liquefied natural gas tanker reportedly sank in the Mediterranean Sea after being hit by Ukrainian drones launched from Libya, according to Moscow.

A Russian LNG tanker, MT ARCTIC METAGAZ, was attacked by Ukrainian unmanned surface vessels off the coast of Libya, but its crew is safe.

Ukrainian drones reportedly destroyed a key Russian 'Kasta' radar station on the Zaporizhzhia front, which was capable of detecting 20 targets per minute, leaving Russian air defense 'in darkness'.

Ukrainian drones attacked the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, causing a fire at an oil terminal and damage to buildings. This port is crucial for oil exports and hosts part of the Black Sea Fleet.

A Russian attack on Dnipro in southeastern Ukraine injured one person and damaged transport infrastructure, while Ukrainian drones caused a fire at a refinery near Novominsk in southern Russia.

Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces have hit a Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft missile and gun system at the Azovstal steelworks in temporarily occupied Mariupol.

According to The Telegraph and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, inexpensive Ukrainian drones have become the dominant force on the battlefield, transforming the front into a 'killing zone' after four years of war.

Ukrainian drones reportedly struck an oil pumping unit serving the Druzhba pipeline in Tatarstan, causing a fire at the station. The pipeline supplies oil to central European countries like Hungary and Slovakia.

Ukrainska Pravda has established that long-range drones launched by the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) were behind an attack on the Kalyeykino oil pumping station in Russia's Republic of Tatarstan

Moscow reports they have downed Ukrainian drones and introduced temporary restrictions at city airports.

Anti-drone netting covering tanks at an oil depot in Velikiye Luki, Russia. Satellite image ©2026 Vantor Ukraine carried out a long-range drone attack against a Russian oil depot on Wednesday night. A Ukrainian security source said anti-drone netting at the facility failed to stop the attack. Anti-drone netting has emerged as a common makeshift defense tactic on and off the battlefield. Ukrainian drones struck a Russian oil depot overnight, breaking through the netting that had been installed earlier to protect the site from such attacks, a security official told Business Insider on Thursday. Long-range Ukrainian drones struck an oil depot in Velikiye Luki, a city in western Russia's Pskov region, a source in the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said. They were only authorized to speak on the condition of anonymity to discuss military operations. The source said protective anti-drone nets had been stretched above fuel tanks at the oil depot. The facility belongs to the company Pskovnefteproduct and is located nearly 500 kilometers (310 miles) from the Ukrainian border. The nets were unable to prevent the strike from doing damage, the source added. Satellite imagery captured in December by US spatial intelligence firm Vantor and analyzed by Business Insider, shows what appears to be anti-drone netting covering roughly 15 tanks at the depot in Velikiye Luki. Anti-drone netting is seen in this December 14, 2025, image of storage tanks at Velikiye Luki. Satellite image ©2026 Vantor Anti-drone netting covering tanks at an oil depot in Velikiye Luki, Russia. Satellite image ©2026 Vantor Several explosions and a large fire were reported at the oil facility, the source said, citing local channels on the Telegram messaging app. Video footage shared on social media shows a massive blaze burning through a structure resembling anti-drone netting. This kind of netting has been spotted at other oil facilities in Russia in recent months. The tactic underscores how the country is turning to crude-looking, improvised defenses to protect energy infrastructure from ongoing Ukrainian attacks. "Vietnam, run!" - overnight, drones from the Special Operations Center "Alpha" of the Security Service of Ukraine successfully struck the Velikolukskaya oil depot. A large fire broke out at the site. Anti-drone nets had been stretched over the fuel storage tanks, but they did not… pic.twitter.com/bLBxuHNxtm — WarTranslated (@wartranslated) February 19, 2026 Concerns over the high drone saturation have led to similar measures on the battlefield. Anti-drone netting is common near the front lines. Ukrainian soldiers are using this material to cover critical logistics routes. And both militaries have added cage-like fencing to their armored vehicles to protect against drones. Additionally, Russia has also installed makeshift defenses, such as large, floating barriers, to protect its ports from the Ukrainian naval drones that have wreaked havoc on its Black Sea Fleet. The Ukrainian attack on Wednesday night marked Kyiv's latest deep-strike drone operation against the vast Russian energy sector, a major source of revenue that fuels Moscow's ongoing war efforts. "The SBU continues to work methodically on facilities that provide the Russian army with fuel," the security source said in a translated statement. "The destruction of oil depots directly affects the enemy's ability to conduct combat operations, advance and transfer reserves. Such operations are an element of the systematic weakening of the military potential of the Russian Federation," they added. Anti-drone netting has become increasingly common near the front lines in Ukraine. Dmytro Smolienko/Ukrinform/NurPhoto via Getty Images Neither Russia's defense ministry nor its US embassy responded to a request for comment on the attack. Moscow said its air defenses shot down roughly 300 Ukrainian drones over the past 24 hours. Since last August, Ukraine has been intensifying its long-range drone attacks on Russia's energy sector, targeting oil refineries, terminals, tankers, and platforms at sea. Kyiv has described the deep-strike campaign as its way of imposing "long-range sanctions" on Moscow. Many of these attacks — at least four in the past week, including the most recent strike — have been carried out by the SBU's Alpha group, an elite unit considered to be among the best of Ukraine's special forces. Its personnel have also been involved in ground operations. Meanwhile, Russia has significantly stepped up its missile and drone strikes against Ukraine's energy infrastructure this winter compared to previous years of the war. Since October, Ukrainian energy facilities have been the main target of Russian barrages, Britain's defense ministry said on Thursday. Russia has launched more than 20,000 drones, and its aircraft have fired over 300 missiles, "in attempts to systematically destroy Ukraine's electrical grid and heat generation capacity," the ministry said in an intelligence update. Read the original article on Business Insider

Gazprom has reported renewed Ukrainian drone strikes on TurkStream facilities, with three Ukrainian drones targeting a compressor station in Russia's southern Krasnodar region overnight, and further claims of strikes on the pipeline.

An expert in Latvia discusses the need to develop anti-drone capabilities as Ukrainian drones, diverted from Russian targets, are increasingly observed in Latvian territory. The expert notes the country's good response in identifying and informing the public about these drones.

Ukrainian drones strike Russia's Ust-Luga port again, oil terminal hit  thecitizen.co.tz

Praėjusią savaitę Varėnos rajone nukritus ukrainietiškam dronui, Ukrainoje viešėjęs krašto apsaugos ministras Robertas Kaunas akcentavo, kad valstybės turi būti informuotos apie nuklydusius…

An analysis by Helsingin Sanomat reveals that stray Ukrainian drones have exposed a critical lack of effective anti-drone defense capabilities within Finland's Defense Forces.

Ukrainian drones have reportedly struck an oil refinery located in the Russian city of Yaroslavl, according to The Kyiv Independent.

A Ukrainian drone has reportedly struck a power plant in Estonia, with other Ukrainian drones also entering Latvian airspace, marking a significant cross-border incident.

Ukrainian drone manufacturers report a surge in requests from Middle Eastern countries for drone technology since the US and Israel began attacks on Iran, indicating a 'gold rush' for Ukrainian drones.

Russia announced it has shot down almost 400 Ukrainian drones as both Moscow and Kyiv continue to escalate their aerial barrages.

Ukrainian drone attacks at the beginning of the week partially halted oil exports through Russian ports, raising questions about the extent of the damage to Russia and the global oil market.

Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces successfully destroyed a Buk-M3 air defense system, a Buk-M2 transporter-loader vehicle, and struck a Triumph radar station belonging to the S-400 surface-to-air missile system in Russia's Bryansk Oblast.

The Lyman direction remains a primary objective for Russian forces, who are also attempting to establish a control zone along the border with Ukraine to prevent Ukrainian drones from reaching Russian territory.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer have met with British troops preparing to operate Ukrainian-made drones.

Russia announced that it destroyed approximately 250 Ukrainian drones targeting Moscow over the weekend, stating that its air defense systems intercepted waves of long-range UAVs aimed at the city.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that intelligence data indicates Russia is decreasing missile production while significantly increasing orders for drones, with plans to produce up to seven million first-person view (FPV) drones this year.

Russia's Ministry of Defense has claimed that almost 300 Ukrainian drones attacked Russian territory on Saturday.

Ukrainian drones hit an oil refinery and a port in the Krasnodar region in southern Russia overnight, causing material damage, local authorities announced today.

US company Shield AI is working with the Brave1 defence cluster to integrate the Hivemind autonomy system into Ukrainian-made drones, enabling missions without a human operator.

Ukrainian FPV drones hit 105,200 assets in February 2026. Commander-in-chief Syrskyi reported on the development of interceptor drones and electronic warfare equipment.

Germany has committed an additional €200 million aid package to Ukraine, increasing funding for reconnaissance drones and strengthening civilian protection and infrastructure defense. This aims to bolster Ukraine's capabilities against Russian attacks.

A controversial Danish businessman, known for selling rapid COVID-19 tests to the state, has now secured a contract for powerful long-range Ukrainian drones, a project that had previously flown under the radar.

Drones operated by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) struck infrastructure at the Armavir oil depot in Russia's Krasnodar region on the night of March 7-8.

Ukrainian drones successfully hit Russian aircraft repair plant in occupied Crimea, SBU says  The Kyiv Independent

A Russian military helicopter crashed in the Rostov region after taking off to intercept Ukrainian drones, with Russian Telegram channels claiming it was shot down by 'friendly fire'.

On day 1470 of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Ukrainian drones reportedly attacked Volgograd and its region, with Russia allegedly losing a helicopter while repelling the assault.

Drones launched by the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) and Ukraine's defence forces struck Russia's port of Novorossiysk on the night of 1-2 March, hitting naval vessels, air defence systems and oil infrastructure.

Ukrainian drones attacked Novorossiysk in Russia's Krasnodar Krai, likely targeting an oil terminal, as the full-scale invasion continues on day 1468.

Among the Ukrainian units that took part in the May 2025 NATO exercises in Estonia – where European forces were reportedly "defeated" – were pilots from the 412th Nemesis Brigade. Over three days, they carried out nearly 30 bomber-drone missions and notched up 14 simulated equipment kills.

The 1st unmanned systems centre of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces struck an oil depot in the temporarily Russian-occupied city of Luhansk on the night of 26-27 February.

Ukrainian drone pilots reportedly incapacitated NATO units with hundreds of soldiers in an exercise, highlighting weaknesses within the alliance.

Ukrainian drones reportedly struck an oil pumping station serving the Druzhba pipeline, which supplies oil to central Europe, over 1,200 kilometers from the border.

Ukrainian drones attacked the initial station of the 'Druzhba' oil pipeline in Tatarstan, causing a fire and potentially disrupting the flow of Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia.

Russia reported shooting down 89 Ukrainian drones over nine regions of the country, resulting in 11 injuries.

Futures, Global Markets Rise With US Markets Closed For President's Day Stocks gained, bitcoin tumbled and bonds steadied after Friday's cool CPI data reinforced expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates on multiple occasions this year. With US markets closed for the Presidents’ Day holiday and mainland China’s markets closed for Lunar New Year holidays, trading was muted on Monday. As of 9:00am ET, futures on the S&P 500 added 0.4% and Europe’s Stoxx 600 index rose 0.4% as banking shares rebounded from a sharp decline last week. German bunds and Treasury futures were steady after US yields touched the lowest since December on Friday. The path of US interest rates remains in focus following Friday’s slower-than-expected US inflation print as traders fully price a Fed cut in July and the strong chance of a move in June.   “The backdrop for equities is positive post CPI,” said Andrea Gabellone, head of global equities at KBC Securities. At the same time, there could be “more dispersion ahead as sentiment around key AI-exposed sectors is still very critical,” he added.  That sentiment was echoed by other strategists seeking to distinguish between AI losers and winners. A JPMorgan Chase & Co. team led by Mislav Matejka urged caution on stocks at risk of AI-driven “cannibalization,” including software, business services and media companies. Meanwhile, banks are developing baskets to capitalize on the divergence: as we first reported last Thursday, Goldman launched a new basket of software stocks that goes long firms that will benefit from AI adoption, while shorting the companies whose workflows could be replaced. With AI disruption rippling through markets, a lot will come down to earnings resilience, in particular in the US.  “When you look at the current earnings season, the companies are showing 13% of growth,” Nataliia Lipikhina, head of EMEA equity strategy at JPMorgan, told Bloomberg TV. “Overall, this is the reason why we continue to be positive on the S&P.” Later this week, traders will be watching for ADP private payrolls numbers on Tuesday and the minutes from the Fed’s January meeting on Wednesday for a fresh read on the economy. European stocks gained with bank shares rebounding, after posting their biggest weekly decline since April on worries about disruption from artificial intelligence. The basic resources sector lags, with Norsk Hydro among Europe’s worst performers as both Goldman Sachs and RBC downgrade the stock. Stoxx 600 rises 0.4% to 620.26 with 253 members down, 336 up, and 11 unchanged. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:  NatWest shares rise as much as 4%, the most since October, as Citi analyst Andrew Coombs raises his price target on the UK bank to a Street-high. Seraphim Space shares rise as much as 9.2%, briefly hitting a new all-time high, after the space tech investment firm said the valuations of its four largest holdings increased over the final months of 2025. AECI shares rally as much as 6.1%, the most since July, after the South African commercial-explosives maker shared improved 2025 headline earnings per share guidance. Orsted shares rise as much as 3.8% after analysts at Kepler raise the recommendation to buy from hold over the Danish renewable energy firm’s outlook, despite ongoing uncertainty for the industry in the US. Norsk Hydro shares fall as much as 4.4%, extending Friday’s 5.9% earnings-triggered drop, after being downgraded at Goldman Sachs and RBC over disappointments and pricing pressures in the Norwegian aluminum company’s downstream business. Galderma shares slip as much as 2.2% after naming Luigi La Corte as its new chief financial officer following the news back in July that Thomas Dittrich was departing. Pinewood Technologies shares tumble as much as 32%, the most since April 2024, after Apax Partners said on Friday it will not proceed with a possible cash offer for the car dealership software provider. FlatexDEGIRO shares drop as much as 7.2% after BNP Paribas downgraded the online brokerage firm to neutral from outperform, saying the price reflects too much optimism about its market position in Germany. Maurel & Prom shares slump as much as 12%, pulling back after ending last week at a 2015-high, after announcing it is not currently authorized to resume oil and gas operations in Venezuela. Barratt Redrow shares fall as much as 3.7%, leading a drop in British homebuilders after Rightmove said house prices are stalling. Asian stocks slipped for a second day, led by declines in Japan as traders booked profits after last week’s post-election rally. Several markets were closed or held shortened trading sessions for the Lunar New Year holiday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was down 0.1%. Japan’s Topix Index fell 0.8%, with Mizuho Financial Group Inc. and Toyota Motor Corp. among the companies contributing to the index’s losses.In Hong Kong, AI model developer Minimax Group Inc. surged as much as 30% to more than four times its original listing price, while competitor Knowledge Atlas JSC Ltd. ended 4.7% higher. The market will be closed until Thursday. As investors across the region begin to reevaluate their bets on its artificial-intelligence-driven rally, traders in Japan cashed in gains driven by expectations of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s proactive spending policies last week.Trading in Singapore ended early Monday and will be shut until Wednesday. Equity markets in mainland China, South Korea, Indonesia and Vietnam were closed.  In FX, the yen is the notable mover in currencies, weakening 0.5% against the dollar and pushing USD/JPY back above 153. The offshore yuan is one of the better performers against the greenback. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.1%. There is no cash trading in Treasuries due to the Presidents’ Day holiday. European government bonds are little changed In commdities, gold dipped below $5,000 an ounce, as traders booked profits from a gain in the previous session. Bitcoin tried anf ailed to stage a modest rebound; it last traded around $68,275 after posting its fourth consecutive weekly loss, with the cryptocurrency struggling to find clear direction as a weekend rally fizzled once the momentum ignition algos emerged.  WTI crude futures tread water near $62.90 a barrel.  Top Headlines President Trump said there will be voter ID rules in the mid-term elections this year, whether Congress approves it or not, and they will present a legal argument in an Executive Order. Furthermore, Trump said he has searched the depths of legal arguments not yet articulated nor vetted on this subject, and they will be presenting an irrefutable one in the very near future. Iran says potential energy, mining and aircraft deals on table in talks with US: RTRS Pentagon threatened to cut its ties with Anthropic over the company’s insistence that some limitations are kept on how the military uses its AI models: RTRS UK eyes rapid ban on social media for under 16s, curbs to AI chatbots: RTRS Rampant AI Demand for Memory Is Fueling a Growing Chip Crisis: BBG Warner Bros. Weighs Reopening Sale Negotiations With Paramount: BBG Companies Are Replacing CEOs in Record Numbers—and They’re Getting Younger: WSJ Europe aims to rely less on US defence after Trump's Greenland push: RTRS DOJ Tells Lawmakers Epstein File Redactions Complied With LawL BBG For College Applicants, Pressure to Make Summers Count Has Gotten Even Worse: WSJ Fed's Goolsbee (2027 voter) said on Friday that they are still seeing pretty high services inflation, and he hopes they have seen the peak impact of tariffs, while he added that the job market has been steady, with only modest cooling.  The Break Is Over. Companies Are Jacking Up Prices Again: WSJ Trade/Tariffs USTR Greer said the US and Ecuador expect to sign a trade agreement in the coming weeks. China will waive import value-added taxes on selected seeds, genetic resources, and police dogs through to 2030 to increase agricultural competitiveness and breeding capacity. It was also reported that China will grant zero-tariff access to 53 African nations from May 1st, according to Bloomberg. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his French and German counterparts that China and the EU are partners, not rivals, while he added that China and the EU should manage differences, deepen practical cooperation and work together on global challenges. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks began the week in the green but with gains limited following a lack of major fresh catalysts from over the weekend and amid thinned conditions owing to holiday closures in the region and North America. ASX 200 traded marginally higher with upside led by tech, although gains are capped by underperformance in the utilities, mining, materials and resources sectors, while participants also digested a slew of earnings releases. Nikkei 225 traded indecisively with the index constrained by disappointing Japanese preliminary Q4 GDP data, which showed the economy returned to growth but failed to meet expectations with GDP Q/Q at 0.1% (exp. 0.4%), and annualised GDP at 0.2% (exp. 1.6%). Hang Seng finished higher in a shortened trading session on Chinese New Year's Eve but with upside limited by tech weakness amid some confusion after the Pentagon added several companies including Baidu, Cosco, BYD, Huawei, Nio, SMIC, Tencent, and more to a list of Chinese firms aiding the military on Friday, but then withdrew the updated list shortly after it was posted. Furthermore, price action was also restricted by the closure of mainland markets and the absence of stock connect flows, which will remain shut for more than a week. US equity futures kept afloat in quiet trade amid the absence of drivers and participants. European equity futures indicate a mildly positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.1% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.4% on Friday. Asian Headlines Chinese President Xi called for the anchoring of economic growth around domestic demand as its main driver, in a speech during a key policy meeting late last year that was released on Sunday. China is to establish a permanent financial support framework to promote rural revitalisation and prevent a slide back into poverty, which represents a shift from transitional aid to long-term support. China’s market regulator summoned major online platform companies on Friday, including Alibaba, Douyin and Meituan, while it directed them to comply with laws and regulations, and rein in promotional practices, according to Bloomberg. US Secretary of State Rubio and Japanese Foreign Minister Motegi reaffirmed their commitment to deepen bilateral ties. Disney (DIS) sent a ‘cease and desist’ letter to ByteDance over Seedance 2.0 and alleged that ByteDance has been infringing on its IP to train and develop an AI video generation model without compensation, according to Axios. It was later reported that ByteDance said it would curb its AI video app following Disney's legal threats, according to the BBC. RBI tightened rules for loans provided to brokers and proprietary firms in an effort to reduce market speculation FX DXY eked slight gains in rangebound trade after a lack of major catalysts and with US participants away on Monday. EUR/USD was little changed amid the absence of any major macro catalysts and with light newsflow from the bloc, while comments from ECB President Lagarde and news that the ECB is to make its repo backstop available to other central banks across the world, did little to spur price action. GBP/USD held on to most of Friday's spoils but with price action contained by resistance around 1.3650 and following comments from BoE's Mann that the UK economy is sluggish and tepid, with consumers spending less due to being scarred by high inflation. USD/JPY edged higher and returned to above the 153.00 level in the aftermath of the weaker-than-expected preliminary Q4 GDP data for Japan. Antipodeans were mixed with little fresh macro drivers and a lack of tier-1 data from either side of the Tasman. Fixed Income 10yr UST futures traded little changed and held on to last week's spoils after returning above the 113.00 level in the aftermath of the softer US inflation data, while price action was contained to start the week by the closure of US cash markets for Washington's Birthday. Bund futures lacked demand in the absence of any major catalysts and with light newsflow from the bloc. 10yr JGB futures were marginally higher following disappointing preliminary GDP data for Q4, but with gains limited after failing to sustain a brief reclaim of the 132.00 level. Commodities Crude futures were rangebound amid light energy-specific newsflow from over the weekend and after last Friday's indecisive performance, where attention was on a source report that noted OPEC+ is leaning towards resuming oil output hikes from April, but with no decision made. Slovak PM Fico said he has information that the Druzhba pipeline has been fixed after damage in Ukraine, although he believes that supplies to Hungary and Slovakia have become a part of political blackmail. Spot gold took a breather after edging higher in the aftermath of the recent softer-than-expected US inflation data, with price action also contained by the holiday closures across Asia and North America. Copper futures were subdued, with their largest buyer away for more than a week due to the Chinese New Year/Spring Festival holiday. Texas venture-backed startup Hertha Metal vowed mass production of steel with 25% cost savings, which could reduce US reliance on imports. Geopolitics: Middle East US military is preparing for potential operations against Iran that could last for weeks if US President Trump orders an attack and the US fully expects Iran to retaliate, according to sources cited by Reuters. US President Trump told Israeli PM Netanyahu during a meeting in December that he would support Israel striking Iran’s ballistic missile program if the US and Iran are not able to reach a deal, according to CBS. Iran confirmed that indirect talks between the US and Iran will resume in Geneva on Tuesday under the mediation of Oman, while Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi left for Geneva on Sunday. Iranian diplomat said Iran is open to nuclear deal compromises if the US discusses lifting sanctions, while it was also reported that Iran said potential energy, mining and aircraft deals are on the table in talks with the US. Israel’s cabinet approved the proposal to register West Bank lands as ‘state property’, while Palestinians condemned the ‘de facto annexation’ which Peace Now said likely amounts to a ‘mega land grab’. Geopolitics: Ukraine US President Trump said on Friday that Ukrainian President Zelensky is going to have to get moving and that Russia wants to get a deal. US Secretary of State Rubio said they don’t know if Russia is serious about finding an end to the war in Ukraine and will continue to test it, while it was reported that he met with Ukrainian President Zelensky on security and deepening defence and economic partnerships. Ukrainian drones targeted Russia’s Taman seaport and fuel tanks in the Black Sea region. UK and European allies were reported on Friday to be weighing seizing Russian shadow fleet ships and tightening curbs on Russia's economy. French Foreign Minister Barrot said some G7 nations have expressed a willingness to proceed with a maritime services ban on Russian oil, which they hope to include in the 20th sanctions package that they are actively preparing. Geopolitics: Other European Commission President von der Leyen said that they face the very distinct threat of outside forces trying to weaken their union, while she added that mutual defence is not an optional task for the European Union; it is an obligation within their own treaty, and it is their collective commitment to stand by each other in case of aggression. Pentagon said the US military struck an alleged drug cartel boat in the Caribbean, which killed three people. DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnigt wrap I hope you all had a good weekend. To stay in Winter Olympics mood the family watched "Cool Runnings" last night. I haven't seen it for 32 years. Please don't tell anyone but I had a few tears in my eyes at the end. I blamed it on the hay fever that has now started. There will be a lot of tears out there in markets for other reasons at the moment. Just two weeks ago, the idea of AI-driven disruption still felt like an abstract, almost academic thought experiment—something we could safely revisit once we had clearer evidence of how AI would be deployed and integrated across the economy. Fast forward 14 days, and markets have wiped out well over a trillion dollars of global equity value on the fear that AI could fundamentally reshape business models and compress profitability across a wide range of industries, including software, legal services, IT consulting, wealth management, logistics, insurance, real estate brokerage and commercial real estate. Some of the sell off in “old economy” sectors feels overdone to me. But as I argued in our 2026 World Outlook back in November, the real challenge is that even by the end of this year we still won’t have enough evidence to identify the structural winners and losers with confidence. That leaves plenty of room for investors’ imaginations—both optimistic and pessimistic—to run wild. As such big sentiment swings will continue to be the order of the day. My instinct is that the reaction in things like commercial real estate, for example, has been particularly exaggerated. Markets seem to be extrapolating a scenario in which vast numbers of white collar workers are made redundant almost overnight, leading to a dramatic collapse in office demand. If that view turns out to be correct, we’ll be facing societal challenges far larger than anything currently being priced into equities. While trying to catch a falling knife may be too risky for many, beginning to cushion the descent could be sensible in many old economy sectors. Markets can’t sustain a disruption narrative across multiple sectors for months or quarters without concrete evidence — and that evidence is likely to take much longer to emerge. Fascinating times. As for this week, today is a US holiday but inflation will remain in the spotlight at a global level after Friday's slightly softer US CPI which helped contribute to a decent rates rally to end the week. Prints are due in the US (PCE - Friday), the UK (Wednesday), Canada (Tuesday) and Japan (Friday). Other economic highlights will include the FOMC minutes (Wednesday), Q4 GDP in the US (Friday), as well as the global flash PMIs (Friday). Earnings reports will feature Walmart (Thursday), Nestlé (Thursday) and BHP (today). It's the earnings calm before next week's Nvidia storm. In the US, this holiday shortened week (President's Day today) features a data calendar dominated by releases that were pushed back by last year’s government shutdown. The most consequential updates will land on Friday, when the advance estimate of Q4 GDP arrives alongside December’s personal income and consumption figures—key inputs for shaping expectations for the early part of this year. For markets assessing the underlying pulse of demand heading into 2026, private final sales to domestic purchasers (PFDP) will carry more weight than the headline GDP print. This indicator—closely monitored by Fed Chair Powell—is expected by our economists to slow to 2.0% from 2.9% in Q3, though risks appear tilted upward. One swing factor: Wednesday’s durable goods report, where modest gains outside of transportation could soften the deceleration. On the consumer front, real PCE growth is expected to cool to 2.5% after two quarters of outsized strength but should still signal ample momentum heading into the new year. Friday’s income and spending report will also offer the latest reading on core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Our economists expect another 0.4% monthly increase for December, lifting the year over year rate to 2.9%. Updated seasonal factors from last week’s CPI release suggest some mild downward pressure on inflation trends in the second half of 2025. Still, January’s CPI data, although softer than we anticipated, do not translate into equivalent relief for core PCE—in fact, our team currently sees another 0.4% gain for January's release (delayed until March 13th). Depending on the strength of medical services, airfare, and portfolio management components in the upcoming PPI report, a 0.5% monthly rise cannot be ruled out, which would push the year over year rate toward 3.1%. So don't get too excited about the softer CPI last week and the huge rates rally. Additional releases this week will help clarify whether recent severe winter weather has disrupted factory sector activity. January industrial production, due Wednesday, should benefit from a jump in utility output, while weather effects may weigh on the Empire State Survey tomorrow and the Philadelphia Fed survey on Thursday. Labor market data will also be in focus, particularly Thursday’s jobless claims, which line up with the survey week for the February employment report. As our economists have pointed out, private nonfarm job gains have averaged 103k over the past three months, slightly above the pace at this point in 2025 and matching the start of 2024. See their latest US employment chartbook here. This week will also feature a dense lineup of Federal Reserve speakers which you can see alongside all the key global data in the day-by-day week ahead calendar at the end as usual. Moving away from the US, inflation will also be in focus in Japan (Friday) and Canada (tomorrow). For the former, our Chief Japan Economist sees the January nationwide CPI showing a slowdown in both core CPI inflation ex. fresh food to 2.1% YoY (+2.4% in December) and core-core CPI inflation ex. fresh food and energy to 2.7% (+2.9%). Also important will be the global flash PMIs due on Friday as a health check on global growth. In Europe, the spotlight will be on UK inflation (Wednesday), with labour market data due tomorrow and retail sales on Friday. Our UK economist expects headline CPI inflation to drop to 3.0% YoY (3.4% in December) and core CPI also landing at 3.0% YoY (3.2% YoY). See more in his full preview here. In terms of key rate decisions, the RBNZ are expected to remain on hold on Wednesday. Finally, the Munich Security Conference wrapped up over the weekend, where key topics included Ukraine, Russia, and the fate of Greenland. And while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s speech was nothing like Vice President JD Vance’s at last year’s conference, which triggered a “wake-up” call for European leaders, Rubio reiterated the administration’s view that Europe needed to leave behind its focus on energy policies, trade and mass migration. Recapping last week now, the tech volatility that has dogged markets since the start of the month broadened into a far more indiscriminate sell-off. The trough came on Thursday, marked by a sharp drop in software stocks, but the weakness extended well beyond tech. Companies across wealth management, real estate and financials suffered double digit declines, underscoring how widespread the pullback has become. Market breadth confirmed this shift as the equal weighted S&P 500 fell -1.37% on Thursday, though it managed to finish the week up +0.29% (+1.04% on Friday). Ultimately, the sell-off left the major US indices on the back foot: the S&P 500 slipped -1.39% (+0.05% on Friday), the Nasdaq lost -2.10% (-0.22% on Friday), and the Magnificent 7 slid -3.24% (-1.11% on Friday). Although the AI scare dominated sentiment, a heavy slate of US data also shaped the market narrative. Early in the week, softer prints—including flat December retail sales, a dovish Q4 Employment Cost Index, and slower Q4 growth expectations from the Atlanta Fed—pushed Treasury yields lower across the curve. That picture shifted midweek after a stronger than expected January jobs report, which delivered the largest gain in nonfarm payrolls (+130k vs. +65k expected) since December 2024 and reinforced confidence that the US economy carried solid momentum into 2026. Then on Friday, January CPI came in below expectations, adding another dovish note. Although the data offered mixed signals at times, the overall takeaway was sufficiently dovish for traders to increase the number of expected rate cuts by December 2026 to 63.4bps (+7.7bps on the week). This helped drive the largest weekly drop in the 10 year Treasury yield since August 2025, down -15.8bps (-5.0bps on Friday) to 4.05%. The 2 year yield also moved sharply lower, falling -8.9bps to 3.41% (-4.8bps on Friday), its lowest level since 2022. European markets, meanwhile, delivered a comparatively resilient performance. The STOXX 600 (+0.09%, -0.13% Friday), DAX (+0.78%, +0.25% Friday) and FTSE 100 (+0.74%, +0.42% Friday) all posted modest gains for the week. European sovereign bonds rallied as well, with the 10 year bund yield dropping -8.7bps—its steepest weekly decline since April 2025. That move was outpaced by gilts, which fell -9.8bps (-3.6bps on Friday) despite a sharp early week sell-off triggered by renewed questions surrounding Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s position. Elsewhere, performance was mixed. Brent crude edged down -0.44% (+0.34% on Friday), while gold extended its upward run, rising +1.56% (+2.43% on Friday). Will London’s half term week finally give us a quiet week in 2026? You’d probably have to guess at ‘unlikely’. Tyler Durden Mon, 02/16/2026 - 09:40