Inflation surged past these yields, though they've started to rise again. Households nevertheless poured more money into them.

Supercore services inflation surged, after taking off last fall. And AI data center demand drives electricity inflation.

Inflation is the bane of the bond market. And it is now demanding multiple rate hikes, starting late this year.

Rotating from mania to mania?

But this dynamic makes it harder for young people to find a job.

But if they pop: There are only so many trillions that can vanish from portfolios before it triggers a recession.

Plus, in another 44 bigger cities, condo prices dropped by 7% to 14% so far, as the mindboggling Condo Bubble comes unglued.

The free-money hangover is getting worked off.

Ground beef, steak, chicken, fruit & veggies, coffee, dairy, eggs, other foods, and total.

Mortgage balances barely ticked up, but HELOCs soared.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics finally corrected part of the CPI distortions in September, October, and November.

Federal government sheds more jobs, now down to 1968 levels. This labor market isn’t bad, just weird.

For the 4th year in a row: Normal-ish mortgage rates, too-high prices, and the "lock-in effect" from the Fed’s reckless interest-rate repression.

30-year Treasury yield looks like it’s setting up to break out past 5%. A rate cut while inflation is heating up could do it.

Consumer Spending Was OK-ish. Federal government spending spiked back partially after collapsing during the shutdown. Trade worsened.

These dynamics are now moving in the right direction.

The effects of Tax Day. The 10-Year Treasury yield rose to 4.31%, 30-Year Treasury yield to 4.91%.

“Stairs up, express elevator down” as hedge funds sock it to each other.

Down by 35% from 2021, by 30% from 2019, and by 31% from 2018. The housing market is in the 4th year of this relentless mess.

From the “Mansion Shortage” in AI-bubble-epicenter San Francisco infecting mid-tier home prices, to Austin & Oakland where prices plunged over 25% since 2022.

Cut the price, and they will buy. Dealing with the affordability crisis. Sales volume is up, but shares have plunged by nearly 50%.

Compared to May 2019, sales were down the most in the West (-32%) and Northeast (-31%), less so in the South (-15%) and Midwest (-17%).

We’re looking for culprits.

It could break the stock market. But it’ll stimulate the economy. Just don’t expect inflation to cool on its own.

Amid improved automation and efficiencies, production rises, but employment doesn’t, or only a little.

Trend reversal started a year ago. Services inflation stuck at high rate for a year. Now prices of food, energy, computers & software (inflationary AI boom), and gold jewelry (gold price spike) all surged.

There's no indication the bond market is better now in estimating future inflation; its expectation of 2.4% average annual CPI over 10 years seems woefully low.

Ugly trifecta that spooks the bond market. To soothe bond yields and mortgage rates, the Fed needs to hike, not “look through” inflation.

Home prices fell year-over-year in 25 of the 33 big expensive cities in April, a bunch set multi-year lows, led by Oakland & Austin, down by 26% from 2022. Two set new highs.

This is a massive amount of inflation that companies are passing on to each other through much of the economy.

April was another bad dud for spring selling season as supply continued to pile up.

High gasoline prices tilt operating costs in favor of EVs. But soaring electricity prices eat into that math.

Inventory in the South still sky-high, up 60% from March 2019. But homebuilders understand what it takes: lower prices and big incentives.

The big divergence of asking rents in 14 big metropolitan areas by single-family rentals and multifamily units.

But Powell said he’d stay on as governor until “the investigation is well and truly over,” and promised “to keep a low profile” and support the new chair.

Been brutal for real-estate stocks plunging from overhyped or meme-stock valuations amid thick losses, lots of debt, and a frozen housing market: Compass, Redfin, Anywhere Real Estate, eXp, and Douglas Elliman.

Even during the Senate hearings, Warsh stuck to his guns: the Fed should have a smaller balance sheet.

The share of “full paid days worked from home” has been declining by only about 1 percentage point per year.

Condos face some special challenges. Oakland (-31%), St. Petersburg, FL (-28%), Austin (-26%) … the names pile up.

Foreign demand for the ballooning US Treasury debt is an increasingly important issue. But how much of that demand is actually “foreign?”

The surge in energy costs is bad, but there's a lot of inflation from other sources.

But each market dances to a different drummer, and declines have been far bigger in many markets.

Some industries hired, others cut jobs: we zoom out with charts by major industry categories.

But mortgage rates are not high historically, and “real” mortgage rates, amid resurging inflation, are relatively low.

The Fed is behind the curve, the bond market is saying, and it’s going to hike belatedly starting later this year, whether it wants to or not.

The stock has a history of collapsing by 50% to 98% after every spike, regularly falling below its Dotcom Bubble high. But this time is different?

San Francisco & Portland came off the list. Fort Worth & Aurora (CO) come on the list.

Several subprime-specialized dealer-lender chains collapsed, and shares of America's Auto Mart imploded. Subprime lending is not for the squeamish. But it’s only a small part of auto finance.

The Fed is “behind the curve,” and the bond market is getting very nervous.

Americans and their Debts: Student loans that suddenly have to be repaid again fueled overall delinquency rates.

Nonbank mortgage lenders shed 40% of their jobs this time, and loan brokers 38%. They react to demand, which collapsed.

AI investment mania and the second wave of semiconductor plants.

Which raises a question: How many more Fed rate cuts would it take in this inflationary era to drive the 30-year Treasury yield to 6%?

The 6-month core services PCE inflation index, accelerating since August, hit 3.7% annualized. Chip prices and software wreak havoc amid consumer electronics.

“Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices.” In part. And in part for other reasons.

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10th liquefaction & export terminal has shipped its first cargo. List of LNG export terminals, operating and under construction, by in-service date.

Even without gas stations, retail sales jumped, powered by ecommerce, auto dealers, general merchandise stores, and other retailers.

While the Nasdaq gained 100%, the economy grew by 15% not adjusted for inflation. Who needs cryptos when stocks are so much fun.

Prices of new & used vehicles, insurance, gasoline, maintenance & repairs, parts & accessories, and fees.