March was a lousy beginning of spring selling season. But mortgage rates ticked up only modestly.

Energy that Americans pay for directly: Gasoline, propane, fuel oil, other fuels, utility natural gas, and electricity.

“Market-Based Core PCE price index,” which excludes the imputed housing components, spiked by the most since February 2023.

BOJ tries to put a floor under the yen and a lid on inflation through QT, rather than with rate hikes.

10-Year Treasury yield bounced to 4.35% on Friday, after dipping earlier in the week. 30-year Treasury near 5%. Entire Yield Curve above EFFR.

The 6-month average trade deficit in goods fell to $80 billion, the least-bad since 2020.

Total separations drop to the lowest since 2015 beyond the lockdown months.

The spike of the “non-traditional reserve currencies.”

The Fed has also struggled in dealing with this labor market.

When this inflationary mindset takes off, inflation becomes like a runaway train.

Bond market frets about inflation, leveraged Treasury bets unwind, housing market frets about spring selling season.

But debt doesn’t exist in a vacuum: The Debt-to-GDP and Deficit-to-GDP ratios provide (ugly) context.

Each city has its own housing market. In some, home prices have dropped a lot; in others, prices have hit new highs.

US Government sold $651 billion of Treasury securities this week into these rising yields.

Dropping gasoline prices since mid-2022 papered over big price increases in electricity and natural gas. But that’s now over.

Condo sales plunged to a record low shared with two other months.

For the US, the Strait of Hormuz blockage is a Price Shock and inflation problem, not a Supply Shock. For Europe and Asia, it could turn into a Supply Shock if the blockage persists.

The annual adjustments of the labor force to the new population estimates are in, and they’re revealing.

Even as miles driven rose to a record.

And the price of US natural gas fell back to where it had been 30 years ago.

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It’s ugly, but slightly less ugly.

Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Poland, Belgium, Sweden, Ireland, Austria, Norway, Denmark, Romania, Czech Republic, Finland, Portugal, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria.

The 12-month average, which irons out Boeing’s huge orders, shows the trend: +8.8% year-over-year.

Demand for labor is weak amid job destruction at federal & state governments, which should push up unemployment. But the supply of labor has plunged.

In the San Jose metro (Silicon Valley), active listings hit at least a 10-year record for March. But Orange County lags behind.

“These structural dynamics allow supply disruptions … to translate into rapid, outsized, and sustained price increases.”

Share of ARMs originations fell further and is at historic lows: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database.

QE hangover a little less atrocious after years of QT and lower interest rates.

Explosive spending on data-centers exceeded plunging spending on office buildings for the first time ever.

They’re investment choices, like bond funds, bonds, etc., not that illusory “cash on the sidelines.”

Dot Plot projections still point at 1 rate cut in 2026.

Home sales in February, as feeble as they were, benefitted from the lowest mortgage rates in years. Those rates are now gone.

Much lower margins, lower revenues per square foot, and lower construction costs. “We are adapting to market conditions as they are and not waiting for the market to bounce back”: CEO.

Not good.

California is back over $5. Prices in Texas jumped by 25% month to month, to over $3.23.

The bond market flipped from haven trade to inflation trade.

Adding T-bills, shedding MBS, Treasury note & bond balances on ice, SRF unused.

The US has become a large exporter of value-added petroleum products, including diesel and gasoline.

Despite the hoopla about data centers, spending on factory construction was five times larger.

Those yields look too low for what’s coming at the bond market: The next wave of Inflation and a Fed that's comfortable with 3%+ core PCE inflation.

Marking its gold to market every quarter (unlike the Fed), the ECB booked another big write-up of its gold holdings in Q1.

These new inflation pressures suddenly building up in the pipeline are concerning.

Inflation and the deteriorating yen pushed the Bank of Japan into a hawkish stance, and bond yields are on their own.

GM, Ford, Honda in a quagmire. Tesla now like GM & Ford. Stellantis & Nissan try to exit a death spiral. Toyota gains. Hyundai-Kia rocks from record to record.

But what the heck happened at food & beverage stores?

Government crackdown and legal entanglements take all the fun out of the Medicare Advantage plan bonanza.

Beer brewers have long suffered as Americans switched to wine. But since Covid, even winemakers got hit, and 2025 was really bad.

Mortgage purchase applications are down by 35% from the same period in 2019 in a housing market that remains frozen.

Whiff of turmoil in the bond market as inflation fears moved to the front and center.

Hoping for lower mortgage rates that may not come.

Worst 6-month PPI inflation since August 2022 (+5.3% annualized). After multiple rate cuts by the Fed, inflation heats up everywhere: services, food, energy, other goods.

Now there’s a new wave of investor-funded tenants in town that are swimming in cash: AI companies.

Energy spike is still to come. The Fed needs to pay attention.

The Bad-Joke of Owners Equivalent of Rent (OER) explained.

The Futures Market is where the Imbeciles go nuts.

Big structural changes in spending patterns created winners and losers.

Double-digit increases in employee health insurance costs hold down wage increases.

It undid more than the entire haven trade that had started on Thursday and blew through the hot PPI inflation on Friday.

It will further fuel the acceleration of the Fed-favored PCE Price Index.